Debrief
I said last week that the tournament with the most likelihood of a good-priced winner was the Cordoba Open and we played the right strategy, siding against the high seeds in the bottom half (and against Fognini in the top half), but we were a little unlucky.
Jaume Munar had every chance of making the final, but failed with all 12 of his break point chances in his quarter final against Federico Delbonis, losing a tight one with a winnable semi final to follow against Juan Ignacio Londero.
Conditions and trends
The biggest event of the week in terms of ranking points and prize money is the ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament in Rotterdam, an ATP 500 event, with €2.1m in the prize pot.
They play there at the Ahoy Stadium on a Greenset surface and conditions have changed a lot over the years in terms of court pace, with the 2018 event being rated by Roger Federer as “medium” and by Alexander Zverev, who thinks most conditions are fast, as: “quite quick (with a low bounce)”.
It’s usually won by one of the betting favourites and only the unseeded Martin Klizan in 2016 has won the Rotterdam tournament in the last decade from outside the top-six seeds, but Roger Federer last season is the only number one seed to have taken the title since 2011.
At the Argentina Open it’s generally regarded as one of the slower clay events on the calendar on outdoor clay at the Buenos Aires Lawn Tennis Club, where they use Wilson Australian Open balls.
It’s the second staging of the New York Open this year, with their matches held at the Nassau Coliseum on Long Island on what was a black indoor hard court in 2018 with Dunlop Fort All Court balls.
ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament
Rotterdam has been hit by a slew of high profile withdrawals this year, with the list of players not coming that were on the entry list including: Grigor Dimitrov (shoulder), Alexander Zverev (ankle), Nick Kyrgios (knee), Marin Cilic (knee), Roberto Bautista Agut (illness), Lucas Pouille (illness), Kyle Edmund (knee) and Richard Gasquet (groin).
Without that list of top players this is a weakened, but still a fair quality Rotterdam draw, and I’m leaning towards backing number two seed Karen Khachanov to deliver a strong performance this week.
The big Russian was disappointing last week in Sofia, losing first up to Matteo Berrettini, but he was coming off the back of a Davis Cup weekend and considering his excellent form on indoor hard last season I’m happy to forgive that performance.
He should have few early concerns against wild card Tallon Griekspoor in round one and a probable clash with Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in round two is very winnable given that Tsonga is coming off the back of a long week in Montpellier and I wouldn't be surprised if he played Marseille next week.
It may not get any easier after that, with Daniil Medvedev a possible quarter final opponent, but Khachanov did beat Medvedev on indoor hard a few months back in the Moscow final indoors and again Medvedev had a long week (as well as Davis Cup) last week and may be a little tired.
There’s also the likes of Stefanos Tsitsipas, Gael Monfils, Fernando Verdasco and David Goffin in the adjacent quarter to consider, but with Khachanov having posted a hold/break total of 115.9 in his 21 matches (16-5 win/loss) in the past 12 months on indoor hard at main level he has the ammunition to be beating all comers in these conditions.
Monfils is the one that I like the look of in that adjacent section of the draw to Khachanov’s, with the Frenchman having played well at this tournament in the past (a final and a semi final and two quarter finals) and he’s produced some very good stats in these conditions, too.
In his last-50 main level matches on indoor hard he’s won 34 and compiled a hold/break total of 110.1 in the process, while just in the last 12 months he’s on 111.6, so a strong showing is quite possible.
A round one clash against Goffin could be a problem for Monfils (lost his last three against Goffin) but the Belgian looks a bit lost at the moment, having split with former coach Thierry Van Cleemput, who he’d been with for almost five years.
In the top half Kei Nishikori plays in the Netherlands for the first time at any level and he’s our number one seed this week, but he hasn’t won a main level tournament on indoor hard for three years (losing in straight sets in all three of his finals on this surface since).
It doesn’t mean he won’t win this week and he’s probably the likely finalists from the top half, but there’s plenty of quality in this half to worry him, including Milos Raonic, Stan Wawrinka, and Tomas Berdych to name only three.
I’m a little surprised to see Milos Raonic as tournament favourite given his no more than okay record on indoor hard lately (5-5 win/loss and 106.4 hold/break total in his last 10 matches going back to the end of 2016).
The last time he won an indoor hard event was St. Petersburg in 2015 and he’s played seven events on this surface since then with no more final appearances and most of his good work indoors came in the earlier part of his career.
I didn’t see a huge amount to get excited about from him in Melbourne, while Berdych is yet to prove he can last the distance in tournaments these days after back problems.
Perhaps Wawrinka is the best alternative to Nishikori in the top half, but his fitness is also questionable these days and he may get served out of it by Raonic again like he did in Melbourne.
New York Open
Now that qualifying has finally finished in Long Island I’ll have an interest in Sam Querrey in the bottom half of the draw, with Frances Tiafoe much too short for me.
Tiafoe’s run in Melbourne has led to him being priced up as a 4-1 chance, which doesn’t appeal to me, and Querrey, who has a winning record against Tiafoe and Steve Johnson, looks the bet.
Querrey is 3-0 against Johnson, who hasn’t won a match since the US Open, so I’m not sure why Johnson is preferred in this half, and Querrey made the final here in New York last season, too.
He’s also 2-0 in matches against Tiafoe and held serve 93% of the time here in New York last year, winning 80% of his first serve points, so conditions suit his game.
Querrey’s also won his last three against Ivo Karlovic and five of his seven matches against tournament favourite John Isner, so he looks the clear choice in Long Island at a price of around 12.0.
Argentina Open
Just a small one here in a tournament that looks as wide open as last week’s Cordoba Open, which was won by a huge-priced Juan Ignacio Londero, and that’s to chance Taro Daniel at 100-1.
Statistically, Daniel is right up there, based on his 2018 main level clay form, where he went 9-4 win/loss and compiled a hold/break total of 106.7.
He won Istanbul as a huge-priced contender on what were slow conditions there and in a bottom half of the draw that features the same seeds that were beaten early last week, Fabio Fognini and Marco Cecchinato, it looks open.
Cecchinato still hasn’t won a single match in South America at main level, while Fabio may or may not fancy it a bit more this week. Who knows?
In any case, Daniel took him to five sets the last time they clashed and with Nicolas Jarry already out of the tournament and nervy Argentines Guido Pella and Federico Delbonis showing their lack of bottle with the pressure on last week this half looks there for the taking for someone.
Our quarter finalist of last week Jaume Munar has a shot, but I like the odds on Daniel, who has a 50/50 round one against Roberto Carballes Baena, but if he wins that he could well go deep.
Conclusion
So, Khachanov in Rotterdam and I’ll add in a small bet on Daniel in Buenos Aires and a point on Querrey in New York.
Best Bets
1 point win Khachanov to win Rotterdam at 10.0
1 point win Querrey to win New York at 12.0
0.5 points win Daniel to win Buenos Aires at 101.0
