HE would never admit it publicly, but Thomas Frank would presumably much prefer this Saturday’s all-London affair to take place at Stamford Bridge.
There is Spurs’ excellent away record to factor in first and foremost, picking up 13 points from 15 and keeping three clean sheets in five on the road. Few managers are better at constructing a low block that collectively counter in the right moments than the Dane, and this we saw executed to great effect at the Etihad most prominently.
In Kudus, Simons, Odobert, and Tel, he has players well-suited to this approach, and we can include Randal Kolo Muani as well, the loanee from PSG making his first start last week at Goodison Park.
At home, meanwhile, in stark-ish comparison, and where there is a greater requirement to be more offensive, Tottenham kicked off their campaign with a routine win over Burnley but have since failed to win in three. They were outmaneuvered by Bournemouth and Villa and only managed to draw with Wolves, a broken and browbeaten team if ever we’ve seen one.
At the weekend, 55,000+ supporters will be urging their side forward at every opportunity, because it’s a derby, and because all 55,000+ hate Chelsea, and because it’s a home game and each fan has paid a small fortune to attend, and Frank will be on the touchline wishing his men were up against it instead, on their travels.
It is a frustration exacerbated because the Spurs gaffer is fully aware that Chelsea tend to struggle when all the onus is on them to attack.
On the opening weekend, when hosting Crystal Palace, the Blues took 19 shots to no avail. At the Gtech a month on, Frank’s old side Brentford secured a draw via a 5-3-2 setup. Soon after, Brighton’s stubborn and well-organised resistance paid off handsomely at the Bridge, and then, of course, there was Sunderland’s late sucker punch last Saturday, the Mackems taking full advantage of Chelsea committing too many men forward.
By contrast, when teams go at Enzo Maresca’s side, like Nottingham Forest did, with a point to prove, and Liverpool before them, such open warfare plays right into the Blues’ hands. Their defence will ride their luck. Their midfield will win the majority of duels. Their forward line will exploit the space afforded to them.
To extend on this point – that Spurs are best advised to play cat-and-mouse in North London but won’t be allowed to – we only need look back to previous meetings in this fixture.
Last season the hosts soared into a two-goal lead ten minutes in but – true to form under Ange Postecoglou – refused to then game-manage the rest of the game. Momentum shifted, and Chelsea won a basketball thriller 3-4.
Two years ago came that famous example of Postecoglou’s inability to compromise when, deprived of two players, Spurs continued with a high defensive line and still endeavoured to attack. Chelsea eventually picked them off and won 1-4.
Indeed, the Blues have won five of their last six visits, on three occasions to nil.
So let’s assume, therefore, that Saturday plays out like its predecessors did, with chaos taking precedence over order mainly due to the atmosphere being cranked up to eleven.
That leads us to discipline potentially becoming a talking point, with both sides averaging 11.4 fouls per 90 this term while their last encounter produced ten cautions.
Pertinently, Chelsea have had a man sent off in four of their last five league outings.
We can also anticipate goals with both sides contributing to 3.5 per 90 across their last six meetings. Crucially too, Spurs and Chelsea are currently joint top goal-scorers in the Premier League.
Back over 3.5 goals in North London at 7/4
As for who converts them, Cole Palmer would have been a decent shout, the 23-year-old registering six goal involvements in four vs Tottenham, but alas, he is injured. That leaves a whole litany of players – nine in total – who have all shared out the goal-scoring duties for the visitors in their last three outings.
Missing from that roster, incidentally, is Joao Pedro, who has failed to bag now in 11 hours of football.
For Tottenham it’s an equally tricky task to determine a goal-getter, reliant as they are on midfielders and defenders to pop up and make the difference.
It will be intriguing how Kolo Muani fares after getting some valuable minutes under his belt last week.
Rodrigo Bentancur, though, is always worth backing for shots, the Uruguayan taking on multiple efforts in three of his last four home games. Chelsea’s Marc Cucurella, meanwhile, tempts at 17/20 to execute 3+ tackles, having averaged 3.1 per 90 across his last five starts.
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