We got off to a good start again on Tuesday at the Rogers Cup when Guido Pella took advantage of what appears to be another mini-slump for David Goffin and the slower pace of the courts this time in Montreal to take down the Belgian in straights.
I love the way that those in charge of these tournaments keep the important information to themselves and only let on when specifically asked, such as this week in Montreal.
“We slowed it down a bit more, so the players can be on an equal footing between the big hitters and the good returners," tournament director, Eugene Lapierre, revealed.
Always good to know after the tournament has started and while I accept that the likes of us punters are of no consequence to the powers that be, you’d have thought that the paying spectators might want to know what they’re getting.
Anyway, we also got an odds-against winner when Borna Coric and Peter Gojowczyk went over 2.5 sets, but the layers had it right about Taylor Fritz, who looked fatigued in a tame loss to Hubert Hurkacz.
All 14 remaining round two matches are scheduled for Wednesday when the weather is set to be an issue, with rain and thunderstorms forecast for most of the day – the worst of it looks likely to be later in the evening/night.
Karen Khachanov vs Stanislas Wawrinka
I think at these prices it’s the right time to back Khachanov, who’s been a little unlucky with some of his draws lately, with this one being about par for the course for the Russian of late.
Last week he was ambushed in his first match by an on-form Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in Washington DC (Khachanov scored more points, but lost), while his grass swing saw him beaten twice by the red-hot Matteo Berrettini and once by Wimbledon semi finalist Roberto Bautista Agut.
He faced Wawrinka in his opening match in Doha this season and in St. Petersburg around 10 months ago when, like today, Wawrinka had already played a match at the tournament.
So, it’s another tough opener for Khachanov, after narrowly losing out to Wawrinka in those two matches I mentioned – scoring one more point than Wawrinka in Doha yet losing and dropping two tie breaks in St. Petersburg.
Khachanov was a 1.53 and 1.63 favourite for those two and now his status as a 2.20 underdog interests me in match-up that was ben very tight and decided more or less on tie breaks.
Wawrinka has won all three of them so far against Khachanov – two of them 12-10 and 9-7 – and that tie break success rate is not going to continue in a career series as close as this one.
Stan’s win over a woefully out of form Grigor Dimitrov means little, although it does mean he’s had one match in the stadium to get used to the conditions, and he probably has to be priced as favourite, but I’m happy to take him on, as it won’t take much to turn this career series around.
We’ve got two outrights going for us on Wednesday and all have chances of progressing, with Gael Monfils and Roberto Bautista Agut holding good opportunities versus Ilya Ivashka and Diego Schwartzman respectively.
Schwartzman will surely be feeling it after Los Cabos and a three setter yesterday that he probably ought to have lost against the struggling Marco Cecchinato and RBA will surely be the fresher of the two in that one.
Monfils needs matches and should be too solid for the hit and miss Ivashka, assuming that Lamonf is fit, which is never a given.
Fabio Fognini was one that I thought about opposing, based on his current fitness and the form right now of his opponent Tommy Paul, but the Italian has a surprisingly great record as slight favourite on outdoor hard.
Fogna has won 16 of his 20 main level career matches on outdoor hard at main level when priced up between 1.60 and 1.79, so opposing him in these sorts of situations hasn’t been a good tactic over the years.
That one is the very last match of the day as well and most likely won’t get played today if the forecast is correct.
Another possible underdog option for Wednesday is Felix-Auger Aliassime, who edged past one Canadian in Vasek Pospisil on Tuesday and now takes on another one – Milos Raonic.
I said yesterday that Pospisil, if fit, would be a challenge for FAA and so it proved, with anyone that took the overs in that match landing an easy winner,
FAA has struggled on occasion against big servers, but he played really well to beat Reilly Opelka in Washington DC and that match will help him against the likely barrage coming at him from Raonic.
The slower conditions that I talked about will also not aid Raonic’s cause too much and neither will his highly questionable fitness, with Raonic again looking creaky against Lucas Pouille in round one.
Definite chances for Felix in that one, but at the same price as Khachanov I prefer the Russian as my bet for Wednesday.
Elsewhere, Adrian Mannarino might go well against Borna Coric, who just about scraped past Peter Gojowczyk and as ever the 2-1 win to Coric is worth thinking about in any match where Coric is likely to be challenged.
Richard Gasquet has a 7-3 career series lead over Kei Nishikori, but Gasquet’s fitness is a huge worry in that one, with the Gasman seemingly having constant problems with his back these days.
He certainly hasn’t appeared to be mobile enough lately to be able to challenge the likes of Nishikori, but it may not be an easy opener for the Japanese star if Gasquet’s back has loosened up a bit.
One that a few punters will probably have on their shortlists is Denis Shapovalov against Dominic Thiem, with the young Canadian highly motivated here and with a match under his belt.
Thiem is 0-5 at the Rogers Cup and is coming straight from clay, but it’s slower here now in Montreal, with even Thiem, who usually thinks anything that isn’t clay is lightning fast, describing the courts here as ‘slow’ after practicing on them.
This price on Shapo is too short for me, with the Canadian still not having solved the problem of his serve (8 double faults and only 40% second serve points won against Pierre-Hugues Herbert in round one) and having been beaten comfortably by Thiem on a slowish hard court in their prior career clash.
Shapo may have an opportunity here, but not at that price for me.
Best Bet
1 point win Khachanov to beat Wawrinka at 2.20
