There were a few lame performances (and lame players) on display on Wednesday in Bastad and Umag, with some pretty woeful efforts out there, and one such was from Damir Dzumhur.
Dzumhur had looked like he was back on track, but the Bosnian was poor against Roberto Carballes Baena before Leo Mayer’s awful serving in set one against Jiri Vesely (47% first serves in) downed by set one overs wager in Umag.
But those who sided with pretty much any of my underdogs in Newport would have been happy, as Matt Ebden, Marcel Granollers and Alexander Bublik all won at odds-against, with one, Ramkumar Ramanathan, still to play.
On Thursday I’m taking a look at Umag and Bastad only.
Pablo Cuevas vs Federico Delbonis
I was happy to take on Delbonis the other day in very windy conditions against unheralded Spanish youngster Bernabe Zapata Miralles and we were unlucky that the latter won the second set rather than the first.
It doesn’t appear that it will be anywhere near as windy on Thursday as it was on Tuesday, but I’m still happy to take Delbonis on here against an opponent that has had his number in the past.
Cuevas has produced some very good numbers on clay again this past 12 months, with 81.7% holds and 28% breaks at main level (18-10 win/loss) and those numbers barely change when looking at the career series against Delbonis.
Cuevas has won three of their four (not met since 2016) and held serve 82.2% of the time, breaking 31.1% of the time, which is quite dominant and he also holds serve 82.4% of the time against all lefties in his 42 matches against them at main level (29-13 win/loss).
The Uruguayan also plays well here in Bastad, where he won the title in 2014, and he’s 9-3 win/loss here, holding serve again around the same frequency at 81% of the time and breaking serve 32% of the time.
Delbonis, by comparison, has held serve just 67% of the time here in Bastad and 69% of the time against Cuevas, plus he’ll probably be fatigued after that Perugia title on Sunday followed by a trip to Sweden and a three setter in round one.
Cuevas has been playing Bundesliga to get used to the clay again and I’d probably have him a bit shorter to win this one at this venue in these circumstances.
It’s fair to say that Elias Ymer isn’t exactly looking forward to his third (or fourth as Ymer recalls it) career clash with Joao Sousa, who’s won their previous two (or three, according to Ymer).
“It’s like playing a pit bull,” Ymer said. “He has beaten me three times. I will give it all and fight for every point.”
There’s not a lot in Ymer’s main level clay stats (7-18 win/loss and a hold/break total of just 89.2) that suggest he’s value at 2.15 to beat Sousa here and his 2-6 record in Bastad doesn’t inspire confidence either.
Our remaining outright hope Juan Ignacio Londero started nicely in Bastad and faces a familiar foe in Hugo Dellien, who he’s faced nine times at all levels, winning six of them (all on clay).
Both men have had breakthrough seasons at tour level in 2019 and I just feel that Londero is slightly ahead of Dellien right now, hence the outright pick, but I expect a tough match for our man, with Dellien winning their last clash in Sao Paulo earlier this season.
Londero was coming off a tough run of matches then though and I’m hopeful that he can get back to winning ways against Dellien this time.
Finally in Bastad I couldn’t back Richard Gasquet as a 1.47 chance at the moment against too many players, given how immobile he’s looked lately.
Several of his matches in this latest comeback from yet another injury have featured Gasquet wincing in pain and that was the case again last time out at Wimbledon when Lucas Pouille dismissed him in three sets.
Clay will surely test his fitness and Dennis Novak should fancy his chances here, but form my point of view any Gasquet loss is good news for the Londero outright, so I’m happy to overlook that match.
Croatia Open
It doesn’t appear that new kid on the block Jannik Sinner is fully fit at the moment (MTO for a right leg issue in R1) and he had to come back from 6-1, 3-1 down to beat a chokey Pedro Sousa.
He’ll get some good support here though, as will Aljaz Bedene, and in a first career clash I’d fancy Sinner to make this competitive if he’s fit.
Bedene has only won one of his last six matches in straight sets when priced up as a sub-1.40 level, losing two and winning the other three in a decider, so he’s hardly banker material at 1.37 against a talented opponent here.
And fitness is the big question mark surrounding home hope Borna Coric this week, too. Is Coric fit enough for a deep run or is he here out of obligation to the tournament and for a bit of PR exercise?
He hasn’t played for a month after a back problem forced him out of Halle in the quarter finals a month ago, but that could give us an opportunity to back the 2-1 win to Coric at 3.90 against Salvatore Caruso.
Caruso has been playing well lately and having qualified nicely here and bagelled Corentin Moutet in round one the Italian, who took Coric to a final set breaker as a 6.14 chance when they clashed in Rome a few years ago, should provide a good test at least.
Coric is an astounding 14-3 win/loss in deciding sets in best-of-three matches this season – and he could have won two of the three he lost, losing both in final set breakers.
Given his lack of matches lately I’m happy to take a small punt on a 2-1 win for the Croat on home soil in this one.
Best Bets
0.5 points win Cuevas to beat Delbonis at 1.76
0.5 points win Coric to beat Caruso 2-1 at 3.90
