THE Anderson Silva magic show has always looked at it’s least convincing when the counters get complicated. The less an opponent does and the more the opponent has to hype himself up for each charge, the easier Silva can pick him off.

Think Yushin Okami stepping with his jab like clockwork or Forrest Griffin taking a big gulp before charging in chin first. Things get tricky for Silva when his opponent does a lot of poking and not as much swinging. Chris Weidman stayed over his feet and didn’t overreach – Silva was reduced to throwing low kicks and calling Weidman on.

Michael Bipsing pumped out jabs and low kicks and front kicks for every good right hand Silva swung at air on his counters or waited too long taking a trickle of strikes that he couldn’t quite grab the timing on. This is where Adesanya seems, on the surface at least, like such a bad match up for Silva. If Adesanya has done anything in his UFC tenure it is show that he appreciates a good feint.

The three main deceptions that turn up over and over in Adesanya’s fights are the shoulder feint, the hip feint, and the “question mark” (or “Brazilian”) kick. Most will know a question mark kick: you start out kicking to the body and at the last moment turn your hip over, flop your lower leg like a fish’s tail, and suddenly you’re kicking your man in the head.

The other two deceptions are slightly more important to this fight but are much less spectacular. The shoulder feint is pushing the lead shoulder towards the opponent—normally bending the lead leg a little, or stepping the lead foot. The point is that it looks like a jab, especially if you fight with your lead hand low and ready to shoot straight up through the opponent’s guard as Adesanya does.

The shoulder feint is marvellous for drawing out reactions from crafty counter punchers. And if there is one thing that counter fighters hate it’s jumping the gun and showing their intentions.

Then there is the hip feint where Adesanya pushes his hips forward as if to kick. You will probably remember Lyoto Machida’s famous booty shake—effectively the same thing and a lot less funny if you’re standing in front of him and have already eaten a couple of kicks.

The most important thing about both of these feints is that they require zero commitment from Adesanya and allow him to move in at the same time. If the opponent lingers as he shoulder feints or hip feints, Adesanya can quite comfortably step in with a legitimate strike immediately afterwards.

So Adesanya will probe at his man with these feints, and attempt to counter if they swing back at him. And then if they stop trying to swing back, letting their finger off the trigger a little as they’ve been tricked by him before, he’ll step in with a legitimate one-two to surprise them or start the long range barrage of body kicks which may or may not turn into head kicks. The great Roberto Duran hurt a surprising number of top boxers with the simple one-two, and the way he did it was by making them stand still as he feinted.

Of course the other big issue facing Anderson Silva is one that faces everyone: ageing. No matter how well he has stayed in shape and protected his head throughout his career, he’s still a 43-year-old man who has been training and fighting professionally since his twenties, and who hasn’t convincingly won a fight since 2015 (2012 if you respect that being a no contest due to Silva’s steroid use.)

The counter argument to everything we have discussed about Adesanya is that Silva is one of the craftiest fighters to ever step foot in a cage. From backward elbows to crescent kicks, his moments of inspiration tend to make a big impression on the fight and his whims have reshaped the very way the fight game looks.

Silva was down against Bisping and lackadaisically threw up a front kick that hit the Englishman in the jaw, then did the same with a reverse crescent kick into a straight punch. Silva fought the light heavyweight and now heavyweight champion, Daniel Cormier on a few days notice, did nothing but hold him in half guard for the majority of the fight, and then almost took the belt with one well placed front kick to the midsection. Say anything you want to about Silva slowing down, but he still has the eye for an opening and he has absolutely no fear about throwing when he sees the shot.

Unless Adesanya is actually awed by fighting such a legend, he is unlikely to eschew all his science and lunge in chin first like Griffin or Okami, so Silva will likely need to do something clever. Silva’s go-to offence has always been his kicking game and the odd flying knee—he doesn’t tend to like leading with his hands as much—and it would be interesting to see how well he can go kick-for-kick with Adesanya. Using his footwork to maintain a kicking range could give Silva longer windows in which to react and, if he can be skittish enough, he might encourage overcommitments from even a fighter as disciplined as Adesanya.

Refreshing to hear Dana White say Adesanya-Silva is a number 1 contender 1 fight. Feels like it’s been a while since we heard that and it’s nice to know what’s at stake beforehand. No drama, no speculation … a good, ol’ fashioned mini tourney.

— Ariel Helwani (@arielhelwani) February 8, 2019

It is also worth noting of course that Silva is a multi-faceted fighter and not simply a kickboxer: he is not obliged to hold the fight in striking range the entire time. Adesanya has proven very dangerous from the clinch but Silva’s own clinch work is held in high regard. Entering on a flying knee like the old days might be a bit much, but Silva has always been good at covering up behind elbows and shoulders—if he opts to step in off this he might be able to snatch a collar tie or two and get to work with elbows and knees.

Perhaps what makes this fight so intriguing in spite of Silva’s advanced years is that on the feet Adesanya brings some of the problems that most suspected would have flustered Silva against Jon Jones. He is taller and longer than Silva, and he kicks and moves very well. Adesanya switch hits better and has a jab, but then he’s not manhandling Daniel Cormier in the clinch so there is a degree to which we’re comparing apples and oranges.

But the idea with Jones was always that if Anderson Silva could get into boxing range he could wreak havoc, yet the problem was that there is perhaps one notable example of Silva actually pressuring forward and forcing his way into boxing range—a beautiful series of feints and a stepping right hook to drop Forrest Griffin. Overwhelmingly Silva’s game has been to wait for the opponent and not to go to them.

Make no mistake: Israel Adesanya is perhaps one of the worst stylistic match ups for Anderson Silva’s counter-striking style that you could come up with, and Anderson Silva is taking this fight at forty-three years old. If Silva can pull it off—whether it be by a stroke of genius on his part or Adesanya somehow freezing up when faced with that aura around Silva that still very much exists—it will be perhaps the most impressive achievement in his already incredible fighting career.