HAVING successfully navigated two tough opening tests in Group C, England now travel to Malta, then host North Macedonia, expecting to pick up maximum points and comfortably so.
By Monday evening, the Three Lions should be in a commanding position in their group, heading into a summer break knowing that most of their work has been done with half of their qualifying campaign still to play.
Yet if this all sounds reassuringly straightforward– and it very possibly will be – there are a number of factors that suggest low-scoring affairs await us in Ta’ Qali and at Old Trafford.
Malta may be ranked 172 in the world, and so many of their players may require a good googling, but the Falcons have become an improved proposition of late, losing just six of their 13 games since the start of 2022.
Included in that number are some impressive results, namely a draw against Greece and a defeat of Israel, but what really stands out is they no longer lose comprehensively, going down only to one or two goals.
The Republic of Ireland will attest to this, their 53 attacks largely rebuffed last November until a breakthrough finally came in the second period.
Italy know too, grabbing an early two-goal advantage in March but failing to extend on that thereafter, despite boasting nearly three-quarters of the possession.
In the last 18 months, Malta have conceded 13 in 13. England have conceded 15 in 13.
Furthermore, in Jodi Jones, Friday night’s hosts have an attacking talent still on a high from playing such a pivotal role in getting Notts County promoted, while Teddy Teuma is worth looking out for too. Malta’s best player racked up nine goals and nine assists in the Jupiler Pro League for Union SG in 2022/23.
GOAL 🥅| Jodi Jones Scores The Winner To Send Notts County To The Play-Off Final 😲
Talk About Full Circle 😅#PUSB #ATSB
pic.twitter.com/Aqis99KTqC— All Things Sky Blue (@AllThingSkyBlue) May 7, 2023
But still, of course, the vast disparity between the two teams cannot be ignored.
England last conceded to a side ranked beyond the top 40 way back in 2019 in that ridiculous 5-3 victory over Kosovo. Up front, meanwhile, Malta’s most prolific international goal-scorer is Jurgen Degabriele with five. Harry Kane has scored five in his last eight.
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England’s all-time record goal-scorer should start on Friday but a group of players we can pretty confidently rule out until Monday are Manchester City’s Champions League winning quintet of Kyle Walker, John Stones, Kalvin Phillips, Phil Foden and Jack Grealish, all still suitably ‘refreshed’ from celebrating their continental triumph.
Set to join up with the squad at St George’s Park on Tuesday evening, let’s hope the place is well-stocked with paracetamols and Lucazade. (Though personally, you can’t go wrong with a fry-up).
Their likely absence, coupled with Jude Bellingham and Lewis Dunk withdrawing with injuries, means it is possible to predict much of the line-up in Malta with Rashford and Saka almost certain to feature. In midfield Conor Gallagher could well make his first international start for over a year, accompanying Rice in midfield, while at the back it will be interesting to see who partners Harry Maguire.
It feels like Southgate trusts Marc Guehi more, but Tyrone Mings enjoyed an outstanding second half to his campaign.
HARRY KANE. England's all-time top goal scorer 🏴#ITAENG pic.twitter.com/nt5s805Zux
— 101 Great Goals (@101greatgoals) March 23, 2023
A slightly left-field shout incidentally has Trent Alexander-Arnold deployed as an inverted full-back. A few weeks ago, Southgate referred to the 24-year-old’s recent reinvention in that role for Liverpool as ‘really exciting’.
To what extent England’s line-up changes three days later depends on the City’s contingent’s powers of recovery, though that is stated with a touch of flippancy. They’re professional athletes and will be fine.
And what’s more, they will be needed too, against tougher opposition, with North Macedonia a whole level up from Malta.
Granted, the Lions have recently endured a decidedly patchy Nations League campaign, with some disappointing friendlies to follow, but it’s only 15 months since they famously beat Italy in their own back-yard. In Burnley’s Darko Churlinov too, they possess a player who could hurt England, the winger boasting two in three for his country.
All told though, England simply have to be backed in both these fixtures, their track record against such fare being highly impressive under Southgate. Their last 10 qualifying matches against ‘minnows’ have seen them unbeaten, accumulating a remarkable aggregate score-line of 47-1.
With the timing of the games though, and the stubbornness of the opposition, just don’t overly expect any routs on this occasion.
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