THE first is the most obvious, applying to pretty much any form of competition, from European championships to snail racing, and that is the emergence of a strong favourite. As Euro 2020 finally gets underway this week after a year’s postponement it is unquestionably France most fancied.
There are umpteen reasons for this and all of them are sound. Didier Deschamps’ side are the reigning world champions and were losing finalists in this tournament five years ago. They possess a squad that can best be described as formidable with fringe players likely to barely feature who would be considered key figures for most other teams. France’s qualifying campaign was a veritable romp, averaging more possession than any other nation and facing the fewest shots despite their group containing troublesome opposition in Turkey and Iceland. Up front Les Bleus are furnished with a fearsome front three of Mbappe, Griezmann and Giroud who combined scored 15 of their 26 goals to reach this juncture and with the returning Karim Benzema replacing the latter that is a serious upgrade on an already serious threat-level.
Even more pertinent than all these significant pluses however, is their distinct lack of weaknesses. They are scarily close to being the complete package.
So unsurprisingly tipsters, former players, and beer garden pundits alike are claiming that it’s ‘hard to see past’ this brilliant French collective and this is naturally reflected in the betting with 24/5 available on our Gallic cousins securing their fifth major honour.
Is just shy of fives too short a price? It is not when it’s simplistically reasoned that if four Euros took place we could expect France to triumph once or at the very least reach a final. Arguably then, there’s an edge.
Even so, this is a competition that doesn’t come around often, so why not go big or go home? You can get 90/1 on France winning every one of their games, a feat that’s not been achieved before in this present format, though Spain came awfully close in 2008. Should France gain maximum points from their ‘Group of Death’ – kicking proceedings off next Tuesday against a German side with clear defensive frailties – then suddenly their knock-out games get a whole lot more exciting.
Alternatively, plump for a safer option. A tempting, if conservative 7/10 is offered for Mbappe and co to score over 7.5 goals in the tournament. In 2016 the average number of goals scored by teams on their way to a semi-final was nine and it’s highly probable that France will go that deep or else enjoy a comprehensive win or two before they depart.
"It's a team which has not peaked."
Arsene Wenger believes France are 'super favourites' to add the #Euro2020 title to their 2018 World Cup success. pic.twitter.com/2TZNHUbwDS
— Sky Sports News (@SkySportsNews) June 7, 2021
Before a rousing version of La Marseillaise gets too rowdy though we must question whether it is indeed impossible to ‘see past’ France. Portugal offer great value at 8/1 and if Cristiano Ronaldo can be expected to hog the pre-match montages their Premier League contingent will undoubtedly play a big role. Liverpool’s Diogo Jota has scored three in his last three appearances for A Selecao while at the back PFA Footballer of the Year Ruben Dias is a commanding presence. The artful endeavour of Bernardo Silva meanwhile partly explains Ronaldo’s longevity as an international force of nature. CR7 clearly loves playing with the City ace.
Italy too should not be discounted. A perfect ten out of ten in their qualifying campaign has led to an average of 2.75 goals-per-game in their last 12 fixtures, belying the stereotype of prudency on the peninsula. Interestingly, Roberto Mancini’s side tends to share around these goals, with 18 different scorers from the last 30 converted and this is relevant given that tournaments in the modern age are rarely won or lost by prolific marksmen. In the last-but-one Euros six players shared the Golden Boot with three apiece.
There is one crucial aspect where the Italians have adhered to typecasting, however. Staggeringly, they have conceded only once in their last 18 hours of football.
Let’s not forget either Belgium. Even with Axel Witsel and Eden Hazard both struggling for fitness this is a Golden Generation with the added bonus now of considerable experience.
So, what of England and their chances? Well, here we get to the second betting trope that never fails to materialize prior to a meaningful competition and that is patriotic fervour sweeping the nation and installing the Three Lions among the favourites. Only here, for once, our optimism might be very much justified.
In qualifying Harry Kane was directly involved in more goals than any other player across all groups with 18 all-told while close behind was Raheem Sterling. Throw in Marcus Rashford, Phil Foden – who might conceivably have a Gazza in ’90 impact on this tournament – Jadon Sancho, and a schemer in Mason Mount who has added goals to his creative arsenal of late and this is a team packed with fire-power.
At the back too there is genuine cause for encouragement with 14 clean sheets kept in England’s last 20 games although for them to go all the way it’s hard not to shake the feeling that Harry Maguire will be sorely needed. His absence from both friendlies this week therefore is a concern and the experience and game-management of Jordan Henderson will also be a huge boon should he be available. This is a young and exhilarating team but without these two mainstays Euro 2020 might be viewed in hindsight as a springboard rather than the end-goal.
Staying with the home nations and staying in group D and it’s a fair shout to back the Scots to follow England into the knock-outs without the need to be one of the best third-place finishers. Who knows, they might even ‘do a Wales’ and go further?
A strong showing from Scotland last night, as their patched-up side drew 2-2 with The Netherlands
Steve Clarke's men were denied a famous victory when The Oranje's Depay scored a last minute free-kick
How far can Scotland go at #Euro2020? pic.twitter.com/CwUYtaUHLW
— 32Red (@32Red) June 3, 2021
Two of Scotland’s fixtures are in Glasgow and a nation that hasn’t appeared in a major tournament since 1998 should not be overly fearful of the opposition having beaten Czech Republic on the last three occasions they have met. They also have a welcome hex over Croatia, unbeaten in five encounters and it matters that this is an aging Croatia set-up minus Rakatic and Mandzukic.
Scotland are good value to finish in the top two in Group D at 3/1.
Elsewhere, Ukraine are well priced at 19/4 to top Group C with Andriy Shevchenko’s side currently on an upswing following a tricky few months post-qualification and with only rank outsiders North Macedonia, stoic Austria, and a potentially shambolic Holland to beat this amounts to one of the best bets of the whole tournament.
Lastly, speaking of odds-busters brings us to another betting trope that always accompanies a tournament, this one being a personal bugbear, that of well-fancied ‘dark horses’.
This time out, it’s Denmark and Turkey who are the hipster’s choices and though the Danes can be backed at a tempting 7/2 to reach the last four – their pathway, should they finish runner-up in Group B makes this entirely plausible – the blunt truth is that ‘dark horses’ have never won a major tournament and perhaps never will.
This extends even to the Euros, a competition that has seen some very unlikely winners in times past but Denmark in ’92 weren’t ‘dark horses’ nor Greece 12 years later. They came from nowhere.
History tells us then to get behind the highest ranked sides or a complete outsider and being Welsh, let’s go with Wales for the latter. It’s been five years since the last Euros, an awfully long wait. A man’s allowed to dream isn’t he?
