The disjointed ATP Tour calendar has the players heading indoors for just the one week ahead of the Asian swing, with the Moselle Open in Metz, France and the St. Petersburg Open in Russia.
Conditions and trends
The Moselle Open has been played on a quickish Gerflor indoor hard court for the last few years, which is the same one they use in Marseille, but it looks like they’ve changed again this season.
The surface is listed as being a Slamcourt Indoor court and they’re still playing with Artengo balls that the players have said fluff up very quickly, so conditions are a little bit unknown, really.
There’s a tiny bit of altitude here at 170m and it ranks in the top-10 (at seven) of the tournaments with the most tie break matches on tour.
Despite that it was won by the veteran Frenchman Gilles Simon (25-1) last year, who defeated qualifier Matthias Bachinger in the final and in 2017 it was won by a qualifier (Peter Gojowczyk), who beat 35-1 Benoit Paire in the final, so there’ve been some big-priced champions and finalists lately.
No number one seed has won Metz since Jo-Wilfried Tsonga did it in 2012 and only one has made the final in the last five years.
Over in St Petersburg the conditions are usually slower than in Metz at the Sibur Arena and that’s borne out by the names of the last four finalists here: Dominic Thiem, Martin Klizan, Damir Dzumhur and Fabio Fognini.
Similarly to Metz it’s not usually a good tournament for top seeds, with Thiem’s win in 2018 being the first time a number one seed has won here since 2008.
Moselle Open
In the top half of the draw, David Goffin is our top seed and given that he often takes a little while to get his confidence back after a pummelling from an elite player, such as the one he took from Roger Federer in New York, Goffin can be taken on this week.
When he’s been top seed at main level Goffin has only made the final once in nine tries and that was on clay in Gstaad in 2015 when he was beaten in the title match by Dominic Thiem, so his record is pretty poor when seeded first.
If the fluffy balls and/or this new surface make it slower than of late in Metz Goffin might have a tough time getting past (probably) Pablo Carreno Busta in his opening match.
Goffin and PCB had a tight battle in New York that featured three very close sets indeed and it wouldn’t be a great shock if the Belgian were to fail as top seed again this week.
The French challenge looks strong again, with French players having won here eight times in the last 10 years and only once since 2007 has there been a Metz final that didn’t feature a French player.
In the top half of this year’s draw, defending champion Gilles Simon, plus Benoit Paire (2017 finalist), and Richard Gasquet look more than capable of producing another French finalist, while Hubert Hurkacz will also fancy his chances in this half.
Simon has won 20 of his last 23 matches in Metz and only dropped one set on his way to the title last year, but he’ll be 35 in a few months and if conditions aren’t on the quicker side I’m not keen on Simon this time.
He could face a difficult one first up against Marius Copil if the Romanian can find some of his old form, but it’s been a poor season for Copil and it would be some turnaround from his current level if he were to challenge this week.
Gasquet has rarely gone well in Metz, with only one final in nine tries here, and that back in 2004, so for me his price is a bit short considering all his injury problems in recent times.
The Gasman has certainly looked better lately, but both he and Hurkacz are too short for me and I’ll wait and see if a qualifier takes my fancy in this half instead, as nobody really stands out.
Paire is an obvious possibility, but who knows how he’ll shape up after a daft loss in New York, after which the very quotable Paire said: “I will take a couple of weeks off where I will not see a tennis court, that's for sure. More in the nightclubs.”
He played the Open de Rouen exhibition this weekend, losing to Carreno Busta in the final and it’s unconfirmed as to Paire’s attendance in the nightspots of Rouen.
The bottom half looks like it may hold an opportunity or two though ahead of the qualifying draw to be completed, with Fernando Verdasco, Jan-Lennard Struff Lucas Pouille and Nikoloz Basilashvili hardly the most consistent quartet.
Verdasco hasn’t made a final on indoor hard since losing to Milos Raonic in the 2011 San Jose title match and his only title indoors came at the same tournament a year earlier.
The veteran Spaniard has only played Metz twice in the past and it’s hard to see him being motivated by this, but perhaps Struff will be.
Struff has been somewhat of a drain on resources when it comes to outrights over then years, with the German’s big game catching the eye frequently, but so far he’s lacked the consistency to put it all together for four straight matches.
He’s made seven main level semi finals in his career and lost the lot (including one here in 2014), but on his form overall in 2019 he’s a strong contender if he finally overcome those business end nerves.
He’ll take on Pierre-Hugues Herbert first up and that is no gimme, despite Struff winning four of their five clashes and Herbert holding a 2-6 record in the main draw of Metz.
The way that Struff dismissed Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in Montreal suggests that he has the tools to beat two Frenchman early on this week (assuming that Tsonga beats Pablo Andujar in round one), but he could come unstuck against Basilashvili.
The hit and miss Georgian defeated Struff right after Struff beat Tsonga in Montreal, but it’s no certainty that Basil will get that far, with a possible clash with up and coming Ugo Humbert a likely round one match in what looks a decent quality quarter of the draw.
At the prices I’d be tempted to go with Humbert, who for me has shown his best stuff at main level in these indoor conditions and went close in Marseille, making the semi finals there.
Indeed, Humbert tested Basilashvili here in Metz a year ago, eventually losing in a decider and a year on there’s a chance that Humbert could go one better this time.
The young Frenchman will surely be given time to recover from winning the Istanbul Challenger title on Sunday on outdoor hard, with a Wednesday start quite likely and all bar one of his matches in Turkey were quick ones of around an hour or so, therefore fatigue shouldn't be a problem.
It's the perfect confidence boost for Humbert and we'll see if he can back it up on home soil back at main level.
Basil, meanwhile, has made only one final indoors at main level (Memphis 2017) and is just 17-15 win/loss in these conditions and has also lost five of his last seven indoors, so he won’t be carrying any of my money this week
Neither will Tsonga, who looks too short for me at the level he’s shown lately, so I’ll take Humbert each-way at around 25-1.
Going back to the Verdasco quarter of the draw and the interesting one in there is former champ Peter Gojowczyk, who is the sort of player that doesn’t need to be ‘in form’ to have a good week.
He made the semis of the 500 in Washington as a lucky loser having lost 12 of his previous 14 matches and he won Metz in 2017 having lost his previous two matches to Franko Skugor (retired) and Aldin Setkic and having not played at all for over a month.
He also made the Delray Beach final of 2018 having retired the previous week in New York, so if conditions are on the quick side a big-priced bet on Gojowczyk could be an option.
Pouille won this in 2016 (and has played an opening set tie break in four of his five matches in Metz) but he hasn’t shown any real consistency this season and he’s too short in price for me as 5-1 second favourite.
St. Petersburg Open
There are some very decent players in the St. Petersburg field this year, with Daniil Medvedev, Karen Khachanov, Matteo Berrettini and Borna Coric the high seeds, plus the likes of Andrey Rublev as well.
And I’m happy to take a chance that any or all of Medvedev, Khachanov and Coric won’t be at their best this week.
Medvedev must be running on fumes after his crazy run on the North American hard court swing and Khachanov has just become a new dad, so I’m happy to avoid those two this week, despite their obvious motivation playing at home.
Coric has split with coach Riccardo Piatti and has looked badly out of sorts since being injured during the grass swing, so there may be a chance for one or two of the bigger-priced players here.
In the top half Ricardas Berankis often goes very well in these conditions and made the final of the Kremlin Cup in 2017 as well as losing out in a final set decider here a year ago to Medvedev in the last eight.
He won the Vancouver Challenger just before the US Open, so he’ll be confident and he knows he can cause big upsets in these conditions, as he did when beating Milos Raonic in Moscow a few years ago as a 5.23 chance, and 80-1 seems a more than decent price.
Wild card Evgeny Donskoy is now working with Andrey Kuznetsov (who I can only assume isn’t going to make a comeback now after a long term hip problem) and will be very motivated to go well.
It wouldn’t shock me if he went a few rounds this week, but Rublev, Berrettini and perhaps Martin Klizan look the ones more likely to make the final from the top half.
Klizan has been talking about possible retirement after a poor season, blaming a lack of funds for his inability to retain the coaching services of the likes of Dominik Hrbaty and Martin Damm.
He also lost badly in Davis Cup at the weekend to world number 286 Sandro Erhart on clay and didn’t play singles again in the tie, so all told last year’s finalist looks well out of sorts.
Adrian Mannarino has often stated that he doesn’t much care for indoor hard, so Rublev and Berrettini on form look the two most likely to challenge Medvedev in this half, but neither have great records indoors.
Berrettini doesn’t move well enough for my liking in these conditions and is 5-4 in all on indoor hard at main level, while Rublev (who beat Berrettini easily indoors in February) is 9-15 win/loss at main level indoors, so neither man really appeals at the prices.
I prefer a bet in the bottom half on Mikhail Kukushkin, who made the final of Marseille indoors earlier in the season and who’s beaten Khachanov three times from three (admittedly he was favourite for two of them).
If Kuku can outfox young starlet Jannik Sinner in round one he should be too strong for either the soon-to-be-retired Janko Tipsarevic or a qualifier/lucky loser then he may face Khachanov again.
Even without the new dad factor Khachanov’s form hasn’t been good enough by a long way this season for him to be a 4-1 shot to win this week, so I’m happy to chance former champ Kukushkin in this quarter of the draw at 25-1.
Alexander Bublik is an intriguing one at 40-1 in Q3 of the draw, but conditions here are probably a bit too slow for him here and maybe Marton Fucsovics can go well at the expense of Coric and Casper Ruud.
Ruud has shown very little away from clay so far in his career and is yet to play a match at this level on indoor hard, while Thomas Fabbiano is 2-8 indoors at main level, so this could be a chance for the frustrating Fucsovics.
The Hungarian made the final indoors in February, beating the likes of Roberto Bautista Agut and Berrettini before losing to Medvedev in the final and also played well in Rotterdam, losing out there to Kei Nishikori in the last eight.
The obvious issue for Fucsovics is that he’s been playing on clay in Davis Cup this weekend, but winning for his nation could well give him the mental boost he needs.
He’s let me down a bit too often lately though and I’ll take Kukushkin instead.
Conclusion
I might possibly add one or two, depending on the outcome of qualies, but for now the huge price on Berankis and the 25-1 about Humbert and Kukushkin are the picks in Metz and St Petersburg.
Best Bets
1 point win Kukushkin to win St. Petersburg at 26.0
0.5 points each-way Berankis to win St. Petersburg at 81.0
1 point each-way Humbert to win Metz at 26.0
