It was a bit of a mixed day of tennis betting for us on Tuesday when we managed to secure a handy 2.95 winner in the form of Yoshihito Nishioka, but that was tempered by two disappointing outright defeats and a failure to convert a *4-3 lead in a tie break by Marius Copil.
Nishioka did run the legs off Dan Evans in the DC heat, but Marton Fucsovics wasted a set lead and 13 of his 15 break chances against Albert Ramos and Leo Mayer also blew a set lead against Pablo Andujar.
That’s perhaps a fitting end to a clay season that’s seen three big-priced outrights lose in finals (two from winning positions) and it’s hard courts all the way to the end of the season now.
It’s set to be very humid and with a strong likelihood of thunderstorms on Wednesday in Washington DC and if the forecast is correct it may be a day that is regularly interrupted by bad weather.
Benoit Paire is hardly Mr Reliable at this time of the year (not that he is at any other time, particularly), with a record of 12 wins and 22 losses on outdoor hard courts between the end of Wimbledon and start of the US Open.
That’s in the last 10 years and he’s lost 10 of his last 14 at the moment, so maybe opportunity knocks for Marc Polmans, who landed a first main level win in beating Malek Jaziri in round one here this week.
Our remaining outright hope for the week Hubert Hurkacz is another lively underdog against a John Isner that still needs matches to find his best form again after injury.
Hurkacz started well enough in a straight sets win over Donald Young in round one and he’s actually won five of his last seven matches against the big servers in my database.
A tough loss against Ivo Karlovic in Melbourne at the start of the season in which he had his chances in a four tie break sets loss should stand him in good stead for this and I’m optimistic about his chances against a less than fully fit and firing Isner here.
Kevin Anderson vs Adrian Mannarino
The Frenchman has a weak record against the big South African, but equally to be considered when thinking about this match is the lack of game time that Anderson has had lately and his questionable record in his opening matches after Wimbledon on hard courts.
Anderson has barely played since tennis elbow took him off the tour back in March and he was miles away from his old form when he came back at Queen’s and Wimbledon – not surprising after three months off the tour.
He’s the sort of player that does need matches to get his rhythm going and we’ve seen in the past at this time of the year that he often takes a while to get going.
A year ago 1.22 shot Anderson had to come from a set down to beat Evgeny Donskoy in a final set tie break in his first hard court match after Wimbledon (at the Rogers Cup) and in 2016 he lost to Malek Jaziri here in Washington as a 1.35 chance – his only loss in six career matches against Jaziri.
In 2015 here he lost as a 1.23 shot against a then-96th ranked Alexander Zverev, while in 2014 his first match after Wimbledon was in Atlanta when as a 1.27 favourite Anderson lost to Thiemo De Bakker.
So, there’s clear evidence of Anderson struggling to find his best level early in the hard court swing and this time he hasn’t had his best level for some time due to that injury, so this is a chance for Mannarino.
The Frenchman already has one match under his belt and his flat ball should in theory be quite effective in these quick conditions, but he’s only played here once in the past (beat Tiafoe then lost to Johnson), so he doesn’t have much of a Washington record.
It’s not easy to find the right bet here, as Mannarino does have an awful recent record against big servers (lost his last 11 against the ones in my database), but he has beaten the likes of Raonic, Querrey, Cilic, Karlovic, Johnson and Anderson on hard courts in the past.
Either the set one to Mannarino at 2.75 or the 2-1 win to Anderson at 3.85 are perhaps the most appealing ones here.
Elsewhere, Tim Smyczek did the business for us the other day, but he has a worryingly poor record against big servers such as Milos Raonic, losing 15 of his 21 on outdoor hard and 13 of his last 15 on all surfaces versus the big servers in my database.
Felix Auger-Aliassime is yet to really figure out how to deal with big servers as well, losing five of his seven so far against the ones in my list, but still, should he the underdog against Reilly Opelka?
I’d be tempted by the set one tie break there at 2.75, with FAA only having managed to break serve against those big servers 7.4% of the time, and having played a set one breaker in three of his last four non-clay meetings with that group of big servers.
Jan-Lennard Struff doesn’t usually play this early in the hard court swing – only ever playing Winston-Salem ahead of the US Open in the past – and coming straight from a bad loss to Pablo Carreno Busta on the clay he may struggle against the more attuned to the conditions Jordan Thompson.
In Los Cabos, our defending champion is back in town on Wednesday, as Fabio Fognini strolls through the gates of the Delmar International School to take on Marcel Granollers.
Fogna won 10 straight sets – none of them longer than 10 games – including against Juan Martin Del Potro in the final – to land the title (his only career hard court title) last year, but which Fabio will we get this time?
He hasn’t looked fit lately and given that he has lost four times to Granollers in the past (5-4 to Fognini overall) and often starts his tournaments slowly the set one to Granollers is a tempting option here, but the price of 2.15 is short.
Indeed, the only set that Fogna lost here in 2018 was his very first one of the week to Quentin Halys and Granollers is coming here having played a very easy opening round match already.
Ernests Gulbis snapped a lengthy losing streak in round one here when defeating Jason Jung and on his day his big serve and forehand might be too much on a pacy hard court for Diego Schwartzman, but it’s a stretch on current form.
Best Bets
0.5 points win Anderson to beat Mannarino 2-1 at 3.85
0.5 points win over 12.5 games in set one of Opelka/Auger-Aliassime at 2.70
