We had to endure a bit of a roller-coaster ride with Corentin Moutet on Tuesday when the young Frenchman allowed a good early advantage to slip against Reilly Opelka in Lyon, eventually coming through right at the death.
It was a dramatic match, with some questionable tactics from Opelka on display, including a momentum-busting MTO and a walk to the net to shake hands in the final set tie break when he was convinced that a ball from Moutet went long on match point.
Moutet never looked like serving it out and was relieved when a rattled Opelka coughed up an untimely double fault to hand the match to the Frenchman.
Elsewhere, those on the big price about a tie break in Albert Ramos’ match in Geneva or underdog Federico Delbonis would have been pleased, while Mackenzie McDonald and Feli Lopez weren’t far away either.
We’re expecting a decent day’s weather in both Lyon and Geneva on Wednesday, with the sun forecast to make an appearance at each event, so fair conditions are expected – if a tad windy in Lyon (20kph).
Wednesday’s card looks a much trickier one for underdog backers to me with Benoit Paire, Ugo Humbert, Juan Ignacio Londero and Joao Sousa all possible, but fairly tentative options.
I said in my outright preview that Benoit Paire could be a possible stumbling block for our man Pablo Cuevas and the enigmatic Frenchman has won three of their four clashes, despite being underdog each time.
Indeed, Cuevas has only held serve against Paire on clay 61.3% of the time and Paire has bagelled Cuevas in each of their last two meetings, with the aggressive and flat backhand of the Frenchman often causing problems for the Uruguayan.
Hopefully Paire’s dismal pre-major (and pre French Open in particular) will continue in this one, but if Paire is up for it this might be tough for Cuevas.
Elsewhere in Lyon Richard Gasquet doesn’t look anywhere near fully match fit and after a real marathon in round one in his legs in a very tight win over Maxime Janvier the layers make him underdog against Taylor Fritz.
That looks about right to me given Gasquet’s current condition, but it’s not a tempting price on the American, who’s had a good clay swing so far.
I can’t see either Steven Diez or Corentin Moutet doing much against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Roberto Bautista Agut respectively, but I wouldn’t be shocked if the struggling Nikoloz Basilashvili was made to work by lucky loser Tristan Lamasine.
But the one that might be interesting is the first match of the day in Lyon, where two young lefties clash for the first time and this may have a bit of spice to it.
Ugo Humbert said the other day about his ‘Next Gen’ peers: “I think I'm as strong as everyone else. Felix [Auger-Aliassime] and Denis [Shapovalov] do not impress me. I've known them since I was young so I think I can do as well as they are.”
He’s got an early chance to prove it when he faces a similar type of opponent to himself in Denis Shapovalov on Wednesday and with two players who probably wouldn’t list clay as their favourite surface by any means clashing it might be tighter than the odds suggest.
Shapo has failed to shine anywhere other than the quick Madrid event at altitude when it cokes to the clay and he’s currently on a losing 8-9 win/loss mark for his main level career on this surface and with a hold/break total of just 93.4.
And he’s lost his last eight in a row at tour and major level against fellow left-handers on all surfaces, so he’s hardly got a strong set of stats going for him as a 1.53 favourite in this one.
Indeed, the Canadian has a poor record when priced up between 1.40 and 1.60 at main level, winning only six of 18 matches on all surfaces (0-2 on clay), so backing him in this price range has been very unprofitable so far in his career.
Clearly, Humbert will be motivated, judging by his comments and also playing at home and having beaten a leftie in round one in Cam Norrie in straight sets he should fancy this.
Shapovalov needs matches on clay after losing four of his five this swing and over 2.5 sets at 2.35 looks worthy of small interest here.
Over in Geneva, I wouldn’t be too keen on backing Radu Albot as favourite on clay against a decent clay courter such as Juan Ignacio Londero, with the Moldovan still holding some very ordinary clay stats indeed.
Joao Sousa has a good record here in Geneva of 5-2 win/loss and the extra pace of conditions here at slight altitude I think helps his game a little.
He faces a tough one in Albert Ramos, against whom Sousa has lost five of their seven clashes, but most were a long time ago and on current form the Portuguese has a fair shot of the upset.
It looks a day to keep bets to a minimum to me and just the one on a tight clash between Humbert and Shapovalov is all I’ll do on day four.
Best Bet
0.5 points win over 2.5 sets in Humbert/Shapovalov at 2.35
