In time honoured fashion I managed to identify a couple of underdog winners on day one, yet plumped for the only one that lost – and that after Mikhail Kukushkin had blown a 4-1 lead in the set two tie break against Philipp Kohlschreiber.
Indeed, Kuku was one of the few dogs that failed to perform on Monday, with Reilly Opelka and Taylor Fritz both obliging, while Martin Klizan should have done, wasting four match points against Marin Cilic.
Wind could well be an issue on the outside courts on Tuesday, with the forecast predicting the day to become windier as it goes on. It’s expected to be between 20kph and 28kph between 14:00 and 20:00 local time.
That alone puts me off Jeremy Chardy, who I thought could be a hint of value at 2.65 against Albert Ramos, who had to come from 2-6, 2-5 down to even qualify against Casper Ruud, but not in the wind.
Chardy was lamentable against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the wind in Estoril last week and I couldn’t back him on a windy day.
Other underdogs in with chances on Tuesday include David Ferrer, Marton Fucsovics, Steve Johnson, Guido Pella, and perhaps Alex De Minaur. Jan-Lennard Struff would also be on this shortlist, but he’s not far off evens for his match.
David Ferrer vs Roberto Bautista Agut
Perhaps the stars are aligning for Ferrer to end his career on a high in his final tournament, with a win as underdog against his compatriot on the main show court on Tuesday.
Ferrer has been playing very well this season when his ageing body allows him to and he’s actually posted a hold/break total of 110.8 this year from his 12 matches (7-5 win/loss).
There’s no doubt whatsoever that he’ll be putting everything into this match and he could get a bit lucky in the sense that RBA is coming from cold and wet conditions in Munich to playing at altitude in 23C heat in just two days.
Rain delays meant that RBA was still in Munich on Sunday playing a semi final that he lost all too easily to Matteo Berrettini and that gives him little time to have prepared for this one in conditions that are very different.
RBA's record in Madrid shows that he's been some way down on his best tennis here over the years, with a hold/break total of 101.8, which is getting on for 10% down on his usual numbers, and the forecast wind may also make it tricky for the flatter hitter (RBA).
RBA has lost four of his last five matches on clay when priced up as a 1.70-1.90 favourite (3-6 overall win/loss) and on what looks a tricky day for underdog backers Ferrer seems about the one with the best prospects.
The next best may well be Marton Fucsovics, who should have made the semi finals in Munich last week, as he was leading Marco Cecchinato by 6-1, *5-4 before producing one his all too frequent collapses.
The Hungarian won Geneva impressively last year in similar conditions to these and if he plays his best tennis he can certainly get the better of David Goffin, who still looks some way off his best level.
Goffin made the semis last week in Estoril, but it was a struggle at times and I couldn’t back him at 1.54 to win this while his confidence is still not really there.
Alex De Minaur has been struggling with injury and that’s the only thing that puts me off backing him at 3.05 to beat Hubert Hurkacz, whose best work has come on hard courts.
Both men will enjoy these quicker than usual clay conditions, but the questionable movement of Hurkacz in the wind and on clay would mark him down as a shaky choice at 1.38 in this contest for me.
ADM had the trainer out again in Estoril and he probably hasn’t had enough matches lately, having missed a couple of months due to injury.
Another Aussie with injury problems is John Millman, who retired with a left foot problem in Estoril and prior to that was poor in Budapest against Attila Balazs, while he also has a 0-3 record against Tuesday’s opponent, Steve Johnson.
Johnson is hardly in the best of form, but he could well prosper in lively conditions here in Madrid, but the wind may not be conducive to good serving on Tuesday and this match is scheduled in time for the worst of it.
Guido Pella is another possibility, with his very solid leftie game on clay against Daniil Medvedev’s flat hits in windy conditions, but Pella is another coming from Munich and without too much time to acclimatise.
Marin Cilic was a tad fortunate to escape against Martin Klizan on Monday from a game at *5-6 in the third that went on for ages and in which at least four match points came and went for Klizan, who went on to collapse 0-7 in the ensuing tie break.
Cilic lost to Jan-Lennard Struff in a similar way to that of Klizan when the Croat and the German clashed in Tokyo last autumn, with Cilic on that occasion being the one to fail to take his chances and suffer a heavy loss in a final set breaker.
Cilic should have won that one (served for it twice) and at the moment he needs matches to find his best form, but even so I’d want a bigger price about Struff, considering that Cilic was a 1.25 chance last time this pair clashed.
It looks a tough day for value seekers and I’ll just have one small interest in Ferrer on day two.
Best Bet
0.5 points win Ferrer to beat Bautista Agut at 2.15
