SATURDAY night’s women’s final should be a tough, nervy and competitive affair and as ever, the presence of a local player in it will keep the natives interested as Coco Gauff looks to become the first homegrown winner since Sloane Stephens back in 2017.
But in her path stands Aryna Sabalenka, who is the marginal favourite with the Unibet Sportsbook. Here’s what you need to know going into the big one.
Aryana Sabalenka
Ranked 2 in the world, there’s plenty to like about the Belarussian’s chances.
Prior to a 2-1 win against another American in Alison Keys in the semi-final that included losing the first 6-0 and seeing Keys serve for the match at 5-4 in in the second, Sabalenka had things all her own way, not dropping a set en route to the last four and winning 60 games to the 21 she lost up to that point.
During that time, she broke serve 60% of the time, a big factor in her dominance.
By her own admission, her win over Keys was one of the most satisfying of her career: “Somehow, I don’t know how, I turned around this match and it really means a lot to be in the US Open final for the first time,” she said.
On the one hand, another sluggish start could cost her against such a dangerous opponent as Gauff; on the other hand, such a tough match may have been exactly what she needed ahead of the final. And the battling qualities, stamina and concentration she showed to get through may be even more important than any serve or return stats.
It’s not all positive, though. At 25 she’s a relative veteran and though she’s won 13 ranking events, her record in Slams isn’t quite as good as you’d expect. Yes, she won the Australian Open earlier this year but other than that, three appearances in the final (two at Wimbledon including this year and one at the French) are the best she’s done. She did however make the semis in her last two visits here to Flushing Meadows.
Coco Gauff
Much younger at just 19 and ranked 6 in the world, much has been expected of her ever since she made the third round here in New York aged just 15.
Right now, she’s in the form of her life, having won 11 straight matches including the semi and 17 of her last 18 as she dominated the US hardcourt swing over the last few weeks.
Having needed to go the distance (winning in three sets) in three out of her first four matches, she then won the quarter-final and semi in straight sets, suggesting she’s getting better and better as the tournament has progressed.
She’s made a Grand Slam final before, losing the 2022 French Open to Iga Swiatek, so this is just her second appearance in a GS final. What she certainly can’t complain about is a lack of support as you’d expect over 90% of the crowd to be behind her here, though we’ll have to wait and see if she feels the pressure that comes with so much expectation.
Unibet Tips for the final
Sabalenka is 1.77 with Gauff 2.1 and you can easily make a case for either player.
Sabalenka is ranked higher and has far more experience of such high-pressure matches and the advantage of having spent less time on court on Thursday, courtesy of a straight-sets win.
Those battling qualities we discussed could be crucial here because even if she does go a set down, she’ll draw from her experience of what happened on Thursday and believe she can recover and do it all over again.
That’s especially the case considering that’s exactly what she did when winning the Australian Open this year, coming from set down against Elena Rybakina to go on to win 4-6 6-3 6-4 so she’s been there and done it in that regard.
In the opposite corner, Gauff has a winning head-to-head record between the two (3-2), home support and has shown superior form over the last few weeks. However, it was Sabalenka who came out on top just a few weeks ago at Indian Wells, winning in comfortable fashion: 6-4 6-0.
So, if there doesn’t seem to be much in it between them, the obvious bet may just be staring at us in the face.
Three of the five matches between these two had at least one tie-break in it and though the stats suggest here could be quite a few breaks of serve here, they could well cancel each other out and be tied at 6-6 in a match that could easily go to three sets, meaning you may well have an extra chance to get that tie-break. Which is available at odds of 2.85.
Another bet worth a look is that Gauff takes the first set at odds of 2.05, which is something she’s done in four of the five matches between the two, the exception being the last one that Sabalenka won in straight sets. But it’s definitely worth chancing, as well.
Recommended Bets at Unibet:
Over 0.5 tie-breaks at 2.85.
Gauff to win Set 1 at 2.05.
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