It may be a surprise to some that this isn’t a Djokovic v Alcaraz final, but Daniil Medvedev was excellent in gatecrashing the party on Friday night and eliminating the Spaniard, meaning it’s him and not the recent Wimbledon champion who will face Novak Djokovic in the final, in what will be a repeat of the 2021 showdown.  Here’s an analysis of what might happen in Flushing Meadows on Sunday night, complete with the best Unibet tips. 

Novak Djokovic 

It’s hard to know what to say that hasn’t been said before about the man who has won more Grand Slam titles than anyone else in the history of men’s tennis, 23, and set plenty of other records, another being that he’s spent more time Ranked Number 1 than any other man ever has in the game. 

He may be 36 now but there are no signs that his powers are dwindling, either from a physical perspective, or in terms of his ability to win the toughest matches on the biggest stages against the best players. 

After all, he already won the Australian Open and French Open this year and should really have won Wimbledon as well, before being stopped in his tracks by an Alcaraz comeback, the Spanish prodigy playing the game of his life to beat him. 

It’s been pretty much plain sailing for him over the last two weeks, winning his last three matches in straight sets but in the third round there was a reminder that he’s human after all, needing to recover from two sets down against compatriot Laslo Djere. 

Daniil Medvedev 

While plenty of punters and analysts thought Alcaraz was nailed on for another Grand Slam final, Medvedev had other ideas. 

Available at around 12.0 to win the US Open ahead of his semi and around 5.0 just to beat Alcaraz, he put in a dominant display late on Friday in which all his experience, composure and shot selection were on display in a clinical performance that left young Alcaraz with more questions than answers.

Perhaps it shouldn’t have come as a surprise.  Back in 2019 he made the final, in 2020 he made the semis, and in 2021 he won beating Djokovic in the final in straight sets, no less. Last year he suffered something of an upset when losing to Nick Kyrgios in the fourth round but it’s clear that hardcourt is his favourite surface and that this is his preferred Slam. 

He needed four sets in the second and fourth rounds but never looked under real pressure and as discussed already, looked in control throughout most of the match against Alcaraz, also won in four sets, with some big serves and that giant forehand bailing him out of trouble when needed. He’ll be feeling confident going into Sunday’s final. 

Best US Open Tips on Unibet 

The big prices already mentioned on the big Russian are now gone but those who backed him before the semi could be on for a big winner if he can keep his composure one last time. 

The head-to-head record reads 9-5 in favour of Djokovic, but would-be Medvedev punters shouldn’t be too spooked by that because a lot of those wins for the Serbian were on indoor hard, where he’s arguably at his best, and things are a lot tighter when looking at outdoor hard court, which of course is the surface here. 

Proof of that is they played each other twice this year, both on outdoor hard, and it was one-win-a-piece. 

Medvedev goes into the match as a 3.15 outside and you could make a decent argument for that being a good price. He beat the Serb in the final here in 2021 in straight sets, was in imperious form against Alcaraz and as we saw at Wimbledon, Djokovic can be vulnerable to feeling the pressure of an opponent in top form and that defeat may weigh on his mind. 

But if you want to be a little less ambitious, you can take the 1.95 on Medvedev with a +1.5-set handicap, meaning that your bet would win should the Russian win, or should he lose 3-2 in sets. This has all the makings of going to a decider and with that bet, you’d have a winner even before the final set gets underway. 

And at 2.65, you can back there being no tie-breaks in the match. Just three of the 14 matches between them saw a tie-break in it. That’s somewhat surprising given they’re both excellent servers but then again, these are also two of the best returners of serve in the game so there should be a few chances to break on offer for both players. The stats don’t lie and based on those numbers it’s certainly a value bet. 

So, all in all, it may not be the final many expected or even wanted, but Medvedev isn’t here to make up the numbers and irrespective of the end result, this should make for a thrilling match with tennis fans looking forward to a long night ahead of them. 

Unibet recommended bets: 

Back Medvedev +1.5 sets @ 1.95

Back under 0.5 tie-breaks in the match @ 2.65. 

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