Our -6.5 game handicap bet on Novak Djokovic against Alexander Zverev in the French Open quarter finals was a comfortable winner on Thursday once Djokovic had overcome a strong start from Zverev.
Zverev served for the opener, but went on to win only four more games in the match after that and he was noticeably struggling physically in the long rallies virtually from the start.
The bad weather is set to return to Paris on Friday and for once the organisers have been proactive and utilised the other show courts to get the matches done as soon as possible.
It looks like if there is play on Friday it will be in very tough conditions, with rain, showers, and then very strong winds (40kph speeds) forecast once the rain clears up.
So, we could well see matches starting, stopping and being hampered by gale force winds, which makes betting on Friday’s matches tricky.
I’ve already previewed Roger Federer versus Rafael Nadal and that’s scheduled first on Chatrier at 11:50 UK time, but if the forecast is right it may not get on until the afternoon and in any case it’ll be very windy all day, getting stronger in the afternoon/evening.
Both superstars are pretty good wind players and I’m still happy to be siding with Federer to take a set in these conditions.
Novak Djokovic vs Dominic Thiem
After Fed v Nadal it’s scheduled to be Djokovic taking on Thiem and we have to consider the gale force winds when thinking about this one, as it’s set to be played when the wind picks right up to 40kph-plus.
That makes it tougher to call and it might be worth siding with a long match here, as they may be on and off court due to the bad weather, leading to switches in momentum.
Those with long memories will recall Andy Murray coming out on top against Djokovic on a very windy day in New York a few years ago and I’m yet to be convinced that the Serb is as comfortable in the wind as Federer or Nadal.
In any case the price on Djokovic is a tad short at 1.50, considering he was a 1.88 chance only three weeks or so ago in Madrid, but of course that one was played at slight altitude and over the best of three sets.
And that Madrid clash is probably the only one in their career series that really has any bearing on Friday’s match, given that Djokovic was miles away from his best form and fitness in the two prior clashes that Thiem won on clay in 2017 and 2018.
The Austrian certainly had his chances in Madrid, leading both sets by a break, but making poor errors on each of three occasions he faced break points, yet converting only three of 10 he created.
Thiem went on to lose that one in two tie breaks and too often for his liking I’m sure he has failed to take enough of the chances he’s created when facing one of the ‘big four’ – on all surfaces as well as just clay.
Versus the group of Federer, Nadal, Murray and Djokovic, Thiem has won only 30% of his break chances and 29% on clay only, which isn’t awful, but I feel he still needs to do better and remember he rather donated his serve away those three times against Djokovic in Madrid.
On form, I feel that Thiem is certainly close enough to Djokovic to mount a decent challenge in this semi final, but the weather makes it a tricky one to bet on.
The options that I’m leaning towards here are all based on a long match, with over 10.5 games a fair option in set one at 2.95 (all three of their last three opening sets on clay have gone to a breaker).
Given also that the pair have held serve 87% and 83.1% of the time on clay this past 12 months (and also this season alone) I’m happy to take a small chance on that wager.
I’d expect Djokovic to just be the calmer on the big points again, unless the wind plays havoc, and 3-1 to him is a fair option, as is the over 38.5 total games.
If the forecast is right anything’s possible in that sort of wind, so again, just a small wager is in order here.
Best Bet
0.5 points win over 10.5 games in set one of Djokovic/Thiem at 2.95
