It was a pretty standard start to the Australian Open as far as underdog winners are concerned, with eight of them obliging (a few of them very marginal underdogs) and it was a decent opening to the fortnight for us, too.
The one daily bet edged home when Matteo Berrettini covered the handicap (and the overs, for anyone who took that option) against Stefanos Tsitsipas and given there was little between the pair (nine points in total and the same winners/unforced error count) it would have been a tough one to take had he not covered.
Quarter winner outright picks Tomas Berdych and Nikoloz Basilashvili got off to winning starts as well, so overall a good start.
Given that there have been either 15 or 16 underdog winners in round one of this event in six of the last seven years we can expect seven or eight on Tuesday if that trend is to continue.
And the forecast predicts another hot day in Melbourne, with 34C highs and again with wind around at a maximum of 22kph.
Ilya Ivashka vs Malek Jaziri
I do like backing Jaziri as a decent sized underdog on outdoor hard courts when he’s not really fancied to do anything and this looks one such occasion in the opening match of the day on Court 5.
The Tunisian isn’t bothered by heat and has a winning 5-4 record in the main draw in Melbourne, while Ivashka has never won a match at this tournament at any level an is unproven over five sets in these conditions.
Jaziri put in a lame performance in Sydney where he gave up early on against Sam Querrey (he has an awful record against big servers), but that doesn’t put me off him here at all – in fact it may have made his price a bit better.
Indeed, Jaziri retired in the Canberra Challenger a year ago and then came out and launched a comeback from two sets down in round one in Melbourne (against Salvatore Caruso) before going five again the next round (losing to Gilles Muller) so I’m not bothered about the Sydney retirement.
He lost all of his pre-major week matches in 2018 and most of 2017 and the last time he won a match the week before a major was in Auckland in 2017.
Jaziri also has a fine 6-4 win/loss record on outdoor hard at main level when priced up between 3.0 and 3.50 and he’s 9-11 win/loss in the 2.50 to 3.50 bracket as well.
Fabio Fognini vs Jaume Munar
It wouldn’t surprise me if Munar simply wanted this more than Fognini, who looked a tad out of condition and certainly in one of his unprofessional frames of mind last week in Auckland.
One particular service game against Philipp Kohlschreiber which he lost from 30-0 up amidst a slew of foot faults, lazy errors and a code violation summed it up for the volatile Italian and in contrast Munar will be scrapping for everything, as he does.
One look at Fognini’s record in his opening match tells us he’s only won three of 10 completed matches in his first round at the Australian Open and on that stat, combined with his ‘efforts’ last week Munar is a viable underdog.
For a clay courter Munar’s outdoor hard stats are respectable indeed so far in his main level career, winning five of his nine matches, and compiling a hold/break total of 96.6 in the process, so he’s no mug on this surface.
Borna Coric vs Steve Darcis
Coric has struggled to get his last couple of seasons going and I wonder if, like Maric Cilic, he’s finding it hard to start again after ending the year on such a high, winning the Davis Cup.
Even before that his starts in 2017 and 2018 were poor and he’s now lost seven of his last nine main level matches played in the month of January (one of the two he did win was in a final set tie break).
He’s shown little at the WTC in Adelaide this past week either, losing twice to Fernando Verdasco there, and purely at the Australian Open Coric is 0-4, winning only two of 14 sets played against Albert Ramos, Alexandr Dolgopolov, John Millman and Jeremy Chardy.
Darcis doesn’t have a great record in Melbourne either, but after a long layoff due to injury he was up for the fight in Pune, making the semis, where he ran into the serve of Ivo Karlovic.
The Belgian played well on his last visit here though, beating Sam Groth and Diego Schwartzman before losing a tight one to Andreas Seppi in 2017 and while he’s never met Coric before any repeat from Borna of last year’s unwillingness to battle (against Millman) could be his undoing again.
Best of the rest
There are several more possible underdog options on day two, with Pierre-Hugues Herbert, Bradley Klahn, Martin Klizan, Guido Pella, and Taro Daniel all potential troublemakers for the favourites.
Herbert takes on Sam Querrey who has a poor record in Australia, while Klahn faces the horribly out of form Hyeon Chung and on his day Klizan could well take down a fading Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.
Pella against Joao Sousa should be an even money match for me, so slight value on Pella, although his record here in Melbourne isn’t the best so far, while Daniel takes on Thanasi Kokkinakis, who’s lost his last seven Grand Slam matches (some tough draws) and who’s quickest ever major win was in 40 total games.
Best Bets
0.5 points win Jaziri to beat Ivashka at 2.63
0.5 points win Munar to beat Fognini at 3.05
0.5 points win Darcis to beat Coric at 5.30
