Ashleigh Barty – Maria Sakkari (Friday 00.00)
The same bet I tried out in the first round, but luckily not in the second as Barty has continued her fine form winning comfortably in both rounds. Sakkari should be a tougher opponent though than her previous two, and the Australian has had her trouble with the Greek before.
Their first meeting back in 2016 was won by Barty but only after 3 sets and she actually got bageled in the second set. Their second meeting was last year in Indian Wells, where Sakkari won 6-4 6-2.
Last year she played 17 matches against top 25-opponent and she won six, but only lost five by more than five games. She played Serena Williams on 31 december at the Hopman Cup at lost by five games. I will try a small punt that Sakkari can limit a defeat to five games at the most. If she loses at all…
A. Sasnovich – A. Pavlyuchenkova (Friday 03.00)
Next up we are betting on a tendency to continue. Sasnovich has looked awesome but previous results indicate that a breakdown is never too far away. She won 6-1 6-1 in round one and 6-3 6-3 round two, the latter against Kontaveit who was a potentially tough opponent.
However, it is not the first time that we have seen Sasnovich impress in the early rounds of a major only to fade away when the going gets tough. She has been on the scene since 2014, and apart from Wimbledon last year never gone past the third round.
Last year in Melbourne she lost only nine games in the first two round before losing in the third. At the US Open she beat 11th seed Kasatkina only to lose 6-0 6-0 in the following round against Osaka.
That is the reason why I find Pavlyuchenkova worth a bet when she is ranked a nice outsider. The Russian has just beaten 9th seed Kiki Bertens so the form looks good. They have played each other twice before, both in 2018, first in March and then September and Pavlyuchenkova won them both.
And the final R3 matches from the bottom half of the #AusOpen draw:
Stephens (5) vs Martic (31)
Sasnovich vs PavlyuchenkovaCollins vs Garcia (19)
Birrell (WC) vs Kerber (2)/end pic.twitter.com/Rqy0Gl3uYc
— Live Tennis (@livetennis) January 16, 2019
M. Sharapova – Caroline Wozniacki (Friday 04.30)
Sharapova leads the head-to-head here by 8-4, but she won the first four encounters when Wozniacki was still only a young girl on the tour. Since the US Open in 2010 they have split their eight meetings and four of the last five have gone to three sets.
Sharapova has looked terrifying but there is a huge difference in meeting players ranked 63 and 149 and then to play the defending champion. And the thing with Sharapova is: since her comeback after her ban she has often looked really good right up until the moment she hasn't.
At the AO 2018 she won the first 2 rounds easily only to lose to Kerber in the 3rd round. At the French Open she dismantled her opponents in the 2nd and 3rd round only to lose big time against Muguruza. At the US Open she tore through the first three rounds only to lose to 30. seed Suarez-Navarro.
She has found it tough to keep her level through longer periods of time and she will have to fight long and hard to take down Wozniacki who has looked fit and sharp in her first two matches. I am not too keen on a punt here, but perhaps betting on three sets is the way to go. Should I pick a winner I would go with the Dane.
D. Rose Collins – Carolina Garcia (Friday 08.00)
Caroline Garcia marched through the first two rounds but she has played opponents ranked number 223 and 243. A much tougher opponent should appear here in American Rose Collins who took down 14. seed Julia Goerges in the first round.
Except for once at Wimbledon Garcia has never ever won three matches in a row at a Major without at least losing a set. Since her opponent tomorrow looks more than capable of putting up a fight I will wager on that tendency to continue.
Best bets:
1 point Sakkari on +5.5 games against Barty at 1.79
2 points Pavlyuchenkova to beat Sasnovich at 2.23
0.5 points over 2.5 sets in Sharapova/Wozniacki at 2.35
2 points Collins +1.5 set against Garcia at 1.74
