We’ve got 32 matches from the bottom half of the draw on day one in Melbourne and as ever here it’s wise to have a look at the likely weather conditions the players can expect.
It’s set to be a sunny and hot at around 34C in the shade on Monday, but there’s also a yellow warning for wind in place and the wind will pick up as the day goes on and peak at around 26kph speeds (according to the forecast).
So, tricky conditions on day one, and given that it’ll be hot I’m happy to take on one particular favourite on day one – but as I’ve mentioned before, this event is poor for frequency of underdog winners (we usually see some big-priced ones though), so I’ll be circumspect with my wagers this fortnight.
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Matteo Berrettini
The young Greek is worth opposing here for two main reasons: his mediocre stats on outdoor hard courts and his dislike for hot conditions.
Let’s look back to what Tsitsipas said after beating fading veteran Tommy Robredo in a tight round one and then losing to Daniil Medvedev in round two at the 2018 US Open.
“The conditions today – and even in my first-round match – were very tough to deal with. When I managed to win that first-round match I felt very relieved, because I knew if that match would go to four sets, then I don't know if I could make it.”
He’s lost five of his last seven matches at all levels in Australia and with a match scheduled for around 13:00 local time Tsitsipas will have to cope with the full heat and an opponent with power that can rush him in quick conditions.
Berrettini came to Melbourne a year ago ranked 130, but a fine year has put him just outside the top-50 this time around and if we look at his five matches versus top-20 opposition in 2018 he won two, lost one in a final set, and took a set off Dominic Thiem at the French Open.
Thiem went on to make the final and the other loss was to Alexander Zverev in Rome (who also went on to make the final), so he’s shown a good level against the better players.
If we’re looking at stats then there’s very little between this pair on their service hold/break totals on outdoor hard in the last 12 months at main level (99.7 for Tsitsipas and 98.8 for Berrettini) with both struggling to break serve as often as they’d like.
When they clashed at the US Open around 18 months ago it went to three tie break sets in a final set win for Tsitsipas (in qualies) and there were two breaks of serve all match.
The Greek has already been beaten by Andreas Seppi and Cam Norrie this year and I like either the over 37.5 games or the +5.5 games on Berrettini here.
Best of the rest
There were seven players priced up as underdogs that won on the opening day here a year ago and of the ones that might spring a surprise upon the favourites this time Feli Lopez, Roberto Carballes Baena, Bernard Tomic, Tennys Sandgren, and Steve Johnson appear the most likely.
If Lopez he’s fit he’s a very big price against Jordan Thompson, who’s 1-5 win/loss at this tournament and 3-7 in his last 10 main level matches on outdoor hard.
RCB is a sizeable underdog against Viktor Troicki, but the Spaniard has won three of his last six on outdoor hard, with decent stats, and we’ll see how fit Troicki is after a year struggling with injury last season in which he went 6-11 win/loss at main level.
Tomic’s chances depend on what mood he’s in on the day, but his opponent Marin Cilic started 2019 late due to Davis Cup and a knee injury, and the last time he did that in 2017 he lost three of his first four matches of the year to Jozef Kovalik, Dan Evans and Dustin Brown.
Sandgren was in superb form in Auckland and he didn’t waste that much energy, with all his matches being quick, two set affairs, and he’ll be thinking he can emulate his run here last year when he faces Yoshihito Nishioka, who could be overpowered here.
Andreas Seppi also made a final last week, but he spent a lot more time on court than Sandgren and he’s also 35 next month and with a weak record against big servers (lost 20 of his last 24 to the ones on my list), so a clash with Johnson, who’s beaten Seppi three times from three, isn’t ideal.
Elsewhere, Robin Haase has a 3-10 win/loss record here and faces Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, who’s beaten Haase twice in two meetings (though GGL did save 75% of the break points again him). Jan-Lennard Struff has a fine record against the group of players I have on my list as 'net rushers' (15-4 win/loss against Mahut, Herbert, Muller, Stakhovsky) and is in good form, so a clash with Matt Ebden, who's 3-7 win/loss in Melbourne shouldn't worry him.
And the prices on two Brits, Andy Murray and Kyle Edmund look big, but have injuries built into them and we’re guessing as to how well they’ll be able to perform.
Best Bet
1 point win Berrettini +5.5 games to beat Tsitsipas at 1.78
