Debrief
Filip Krajinovic gave us a return on our investment last week in Stockholm when our 33-1 each-way punt on the Serb made the final, but a strong performance from Denis Shapovalov denied us the outright victory and we had to settle for second place.
At least we ended the run of losers in deciding matches with Krajinovic’s win over Pablo Carreno Busta in the semis, but we’re still 4-12 win/loss in deciding matches in 2019, so perhaps we’re due another win or two before the season finishes to redress the balance somewhat.
Conditions and trends
It’s usually on the slow side at the Erste Bank Open in Vienna at the Wiener Stadthalle, where they play on a Rebound Ace indoor surface that’s the same one they’ve used in St. Petersburg.
There’s a hint of altitude in Vienna though (217m) and it produces the highest number of tie break matches of any of the indoor events on the tour (that have been held for three years or more).
Big servers have made the final the last four years here (Johnson, Tsonga twice and Anderson) and number one seeds have a decent record in Vienna, with six of the last nine making the final (five won the title).
Qualifiers have had their moments here, too, with semi final or final runs in three of the last seven years, but the only big-priced winner lately was 28-1 Lucas Pouille in 2017.
At the St. Jakobshalle in Basel the Swiss Indoors is played on a Greenset surface that’s usually a medium-paced court, with something in it for all playing styles, but it’s been dominated by a certain Roger Federer over the years.
Fed’s won his last 20 matches in a row in Basel and in all he’s been in the final 14 times (9-5 win/loss).
Basel has been won by one of the top four seeds (usually Federer) every year since Jiri Novak won here as an unseeded player in 2004.
Erste Bank Open
None of the main draw players really stand out to me in terms of value in Vienna this week, but the bottom half of the draw looks the place to take a chance on one or two of the qualifiers.
As I mentioned above qualifiers have gone well in Vienna and with Roger Federer dominating the field in Basel I’m happy to focus on this bottom half of the Vienna draw for my main business this week.
The first player I’ll take a chance on is Philipp Kohlschreiber, whose big price of around the 33-1 mark is due to his poor form for much of this season, but he showed enough in Mosocw and in qualies here to make me think he might have something left to offer still and he usually goes well 'at home' in Austria and Germany.
He should have beaten Karen Khachanov last week, but produced a classic Kohlschreiber choke to lose it in a final set tie break, but he may get the chance to take on Khachanov again in the semi finals here.
That’s a good match-up for the German, but Khachanov is far from certain to get there, given that he’ll face Hubert Hurkacz first up and maybe it’s time to give another chance to another qualifier in this part of the draw, Marton Fucsovics.
The Hungarian is another that’s had a disappointing season really and lately he’s been struggling with a thigh injury, but strong efforts in qualies here this weekend lead me to believe he’s fit again and when he is on song he's a tough proposition for most.
With Khachanov seemingly still unable to find any consistency this season I’m more than happy to take him on and while Diego Schwartzman is a possibility in that final quarter of the draw his fallibility against big servers indoors puts me off him, although 25-1 is tempting.
Sam Querrey hasn’t won a title indoors since 2010 (at home in the USA) and has only made one final in the nine years since that Memphis win, while Pierre-Hugues Herbert didn’t look close to being fit last week in Moscow.
Gael Monfils looks miles away from form and full fitness at the moment and was brushed aside by Jannik Sinner last week in Antwerp, while Guido Pella tries hard but doesn’t have the sort of game that makes me think he’ll win indoors in this sort of company.
Gilles Simon is 2-4 win/loss in Vienna and for me needs it quicker to find his best form, while Feli Lopez has won one of his last matches here going back to 2009 and again probably needs it to be faster.
So, a very open half of the draw for me and I’ll take a punt on Kohlschreiber and Fucsovics.
The top half looks to hold plenty of options and the quality seems better, with Dominic Thiem, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (who meet in round one), Nikoloz Basilashvili, Denis Shapovalov, Matteo Berrettini, Milos Raonic, Andrey Rublev and Felix Auger-Aliassime all possible winners.
I wouldn’t totally count out Grigor Dimitrov, Kyle Edmund or Borna Coric either, so it looks a real pick-em in that top half, so I’m happy to let that play out and focus on the bottom half.
Swiss Indoors
Again, the top half of the draw in Basel looks likely to go the way of one of the market leaders, with either Roger Federer, Stan Wawrinka or Stefanos Tsitsipas likely to make the final from that half of the draw.
So, it’s the bottom half that’s of interest to me, with Alexander Zverev, David Goffin, Roberto Bautista Agut and Benoit Paire not looking like a quartet you’d want to put your mortgage on one definitely reaching the final from.
I like the 100-1 about last year’s finalist Marius Copil here, with the Romanian showing once again how dangerous he can be in these conditions when he came through the Antwerp semis, beat Schwartzman and wasn’t far away from taking down Andy Murray, too.
He’s got a tough draw in round one against Bautista Agut, but RBA only just beat Copil 7-5 in the third when they met on clay in Munich two years ago and RBA hasn’t been in great form lately, so an upset is more than possible there.
Copil defeated Alexander Zverev, Marin Cilic and Taylor Fritz on the way to the final a year ago and he won’t have to play as many matches this year as he’s got a wild card and didn’t have to qualify this time.
Alex De Minaur is the one I like in these not-too-quick conditions and he showed in Zhuhai how tough he is to beat on a slow surface, but 12-1 is a bit skinny and too short for me to take an interest.
Alexander Zverev has shown much improved form since Laver Cup and is an obvious choice to come through this half, but he’s not yet back at his best and could be vulnerable to either Taylor Fritz or De Minaur in his opening two matches.
David Goffin has gone well here in Basel before, making the final in 2014 and the semis in his last appearance in 2017, and he’s only ever lost to Federer and Del Potro in Basel in a 10-4 win/loss record.
He faces a potentially tricky one first up in Marin Cilic, but the latter doesn’t look like he’s anywhere near his best form at the moment and hasn’t really improved all season long in a disappointing campaign for the Croat.
Conclusion
So, I’ll take a chance on three qualifiers this week: Philipp Kohlschreiber and Marton Fucsovics in Vienna and Marius Copil in Basel and see if their extra motivation to end poor seasons strongly is enough against some heavy-legged market leaders.
Best Bets
0.5 points each-way Copil to win Basel at 101.0
0.5 points each-way Kohlschreiber to win Vienna at 34.0
0.5 points each-way Fucsovics to win Vienna at 41.0
