Debrief

 

We had the right idea of opposing David Goffin in Metz, with the Belgian falling in his first match, but our man in the bottom half, Ugo Humbert was disappointing in a round one defeat to Yannick Maden.

We also had the correct tactic of taking on Karen Khachanov in St. Petersburg, but our pick Mikhail Kukushkin was a little unlucky in the quarter finals when losing a very tight opening set breaker to Joao Sousa on a 2mm Hawkeye decision that proved to be the key to the match.

 

Conditions and trends

 

The Zhuhai Championships replaces Shenzhen on the tour this year and this event is played at the custom-designed, state-of-the-art Hengqin Tennis Centre that’s held a Challenger event for the last few years and hosted the WTA Elite Trophy.

Enrique Lopez-Perez won the Challenger here back in March and it’s a Plexicushion outdoor hard court that they’ll play on. Angelique Kerber said of the conditions: “It's a medium paced court. It should be good for tennis. It's not so fast, not so slow. It's like in Australia.”

It looks like it’ll be hot there this week, with 30C temperatures in the shade and 55% humidity forecast, so it’ll probably be on the quicker side and very warm.

The Chengdu Open is a bit more of a known quantity in terms of conditions, with this event regarded as one the quicker tournaments around at almost 500m of altitude and on a lively Decoturf surface.

In its three years on the tour it’s already ranked number one in terms of frequency of underdog winners (51% of its matches have been won by the betting underdog) and 44% of its matches have featured at least one tie break (54% last year).

Bernard Tomic won it last year after saving a match point against him in round two and four match points in the final (also a set and a break down in round one and 3-1 down in a final set tie break in qualies) to provide a 16-1 winner for his backers and 40-1 Denis Istomin and 66-1 Karen Khachanov have also been big-priced champions here.

Bernie has already limped out of the qualies this year by way of retirement, so there’ll be no repeat miracle win from Tomic this year.

It looks like it’ll be cooler in Chengdu at about 25C with cloud and rain about early in the week, but with high humidity at around 65-70% all week.
 

Huajin Securities Zhuhai Championships

Stefanos Tsitsipas is our top seed this week and he was beaten in his first match in Shenzhen last year as a 1.44 favourite by eventual finalist Pierre-Hugues Herbert and I wonder how motivated Tsitsipas is this week.

Similarly Gael Monfils fell to Lloyd Harris in Chengdu 12 months ago in his opener and Lamonf has lost five of his last six matches in China, so he’s another one that quite possibly won’t be operating at maximum motivation levels this week.

The third high seed in this top half of the draw alongside Tsitsipas and Monfils is Albert Ramos, who did make the final in Chengdu in 2016, but Ramos didn’t win a match on hard this summer after returning to form in Gstaad and Kitzbuhel.

He then went on to not make a final at either of his two Challenger events on clay after New York, so I’m happy to take these seeds on this week in Zhuhai.

Lucas Pouille is 4-8 win/loss at all levels in China (although he’s had some tough draws) and I’m not of a mind to trust him at short odds after he played well at home last week in Metz.

The three that interest me here are Peter Gojowczyk, Miomir Kecmanovic and Yoshihito Nishioka.

Gojowczyk loves quick conditions and if he’s on song he has the ability to make a price of 66-1 look silly, but he’s very hit and miss, while Nishioka will be highly motivated having won Shenzhen this week last year.

Kecmanovic has shown plenty of ability on hard courts and grass and went well in very hot conditions in Antalya, so he goes onto the list as well.

In the bottom half Andy Murray plays on a protected ranking, but who knows what Murray is now capable of after such a long time out with hip problems and this looks a pretty open half.

Alex De Minaur played well in China last year, losing a very tight semi final in Shenzhen to Herbert and he showed in Atlanta how dangerous he can be in fast hot and humid conditions.

ADM’s opponent in round one, John Millman, has been playing in the Kaohsiung Challenger this week and is in the final there at the time of writing, so at this stage of the season it seems a big ask for Millman to make back-to-back finals.

Murray was beaten by Tennys Sandgren in Winston-Salem and gets the same opponent again in round one and Sandgren, as he tends to do sometimes, got hot in New York, beating Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Vasek Pospisil before falling to Diego Schwartzman.

It wouldn’t surprise me if Sandgren went well again this week, but he’s lost four of his last five in China and I’m rarely keen on American players at this stage of the season after their home swing and miles away in Asia.

Borna Coric looks some way below his best still, despite sneaking his way through to the final in St. Petersburg and he doesn’t appear fully fit as well as perhaps below par mentally after splitting with his coach.

Nick Kyrgios made the China Open final in 2017, but has only ever played one ATP 250 match in China (lost to Anderson at Chengdu in 2016). He’s certainly a live contender if he brings his good attitude to the tournament, but who knows if he will or not.

Steve Johnson has only once won back-to-back matches in China and that was a gimme thanks to a retirement from Kyrgios and then a match against Di Wu, so this could be a fair chance for Roberto Bautista Agut to make another final.

RBA has a good record in China (Shanghai Masters finalist in 2016), but he’s never played this week of the tour before and I wonder if he won’t fancy his chances of landing a bigger title instead during this swing.

The one that is interesting is Dominik Koepfer, who's been improving lately and went well at the US Open. He came through qualies here and if Kyrgios isn't on a go week then I wouldn't be surprised if the German had a good week in Zhuhai. 
 

Chengdu Open

Our top seed here, John Isner, is another American with a very mediocre record in China, having failed to make a semi final in this country since 2010.

Isner, like RBA, usually only plays Beijing and Shanghai and has never played a 250 in China, so it’s a bit of guesswork as to how motivated he’ll be at this time of year with a baby on the way in November and after playing Laver Cup, too.

His early draw looks kind, but Denis Shapovalov has a good record against big servers and having found a bit of form under new coach Mikhail Youzhny in Winston-Salem and New York the young Canadian has the opportunity to go well here.

I’m sure whether the Laver Cup experience will help or hinder him, but this is a winnable half of the draw for Shapovalov if he’s coming here with a mind to going deep. The price is a bit short for me though, given Shapo’s record of failing deep into tournaments (0-6 in semis so far).

Benoit Paire is another one with a weak record in China of 5-6 win/loss and he’s never won back-to-back matches in China, plus he had some sort of virus last week and has probably spent what energy he had left in Metz.

“I do not think I will go to Chengdu,” Paire said. “It's better for me and the tournament. I really want to play but maybe it's better to recover a few days before heading back to Tokyo and Shanghai."

Pablo Carreno Busta is 2-7 in China and it’s probably too quick for him and Radu Albot here, while Fernando Verdasco has lost eight of his last 12 matches in China.

Verdasco did come within a final set tie break of the Shenzhen final last year and he can’t be counted out, while Kyle Edmund has a good record in China (20-8 at all levels) and made the semis in Beijing and quarters in Shanghai in 2018. Edmund has been wildly inconsistent this year though and I'm not sure quite what to expect from him at the moment. 

With question marks over plenty in this top half perhaps another qualifier could go deep in Chengdu and Alexei Popyrin at around 66-1 is worth an each-way interest.

He’s been getting better steadily this year, with a few ups and downs along the way, but he’s shown he can beat the likes of Carreno Busta on a quickish surface and while his early draw looks tough he will be attuned to the conditions and he’s the only price I like in the top half.

In the bottom half of the draw Taylor Fritz and Felix Auger-Aliassime are the high seeds, with Grigor Dimitrov and Dusan Lajovic the other seeded players in this half.

Fritz has played well in Chengdu so far in his career, winning seven of his nine matches at all levels, and he was a set away from the final last year, so if he’s got the energy left after a long season, Fritz looks a contender at around 18-1.

As with several others though his appearance at Laver Cup may be either a help or a hindrance and at this stage of the season I’d probably prefer someone with fresher legs.

Dimitrov will be a popular choice after his US Open semi final run, but that’s made him too short for me this week and I wonder if it’s the right time to take a punt on Vasek Pospisil.

The injury prone Canadian took down Karen Khachanov at the US Open and should have beaten Hyeon Chung in Vancouver prior to that and he’s played well in China before (beat Dimitrov in Shanghai as a 4.65 chance in 2016).

I’m not sure that the humidity of China is great for Dan Evans, while Jordan Thompson rarely impresses me much and is often too short in the betting for my liking for a player of his ability, but 33-1 isn’t a bad price at all this week.

Lajovic is an interesting one, with the Serb having beaten Dimitrov and Pospisil in Beijing last year, and he has a 13-9 win/loss mark in China, with quarter final finishes in Beijing and Chengdu.

It’s probably too quick for him to win the title, but he could go well, as might Hyeon Chung – if he’s fit – and Joao Sousa – if he has the legs after St. Petersburg.

I said last week that Marton Fucsovics had let me down too often this season and he retired in St. Petersburg and still looks short on confidence, while it wouldn’t be a surprise if Felix Auger-Aliassime is feeling it after a tough season.

FAA only started playing full-time at this level this season and while his progress has been excellent he’s looked a bit below par lately and that’s no surprise in the circumstances.

 

Conclusion

 

So, I’ll take a chance on two big outsiders in Chengdu in Popyrin and Pospisil at 66-1 each and similarly in Zhuhai three big-priced options in Kecmanovic, Nishioka and Gojowczyk.

 

Best Bets

 

0.5 points each-way Popyrin to win Chengdu at 66-1
0.5 points each-way Pospisil to win Chengdu at 66-1
0.5 points win Gojowczyk to win Zhuhai at 66-1
0.5 points win Kecmanovic to win Zhuhai at 40-1
0.5 points win Nishioka to win Zhuhai at 40-1