Kevin Anderson’s late withdrawal from the Citi Open on Wednesday left us with only one bet on the day and that failed to find the target when Feli Auger-Aliassime played a very good return game to break Reilly Opelka.
Just prior to that match Hubert Hurkacz, our big-priced outright in DC wasted a slew of early chances to break John Isner and, as is so often the case in Isner matches, Hurkacz was made to pay soon afterwards.
The one thing that did happen was that Marcel Granollers took the opening set against Fabio Fognini in Los Cabos, but I concluded that 2.15 was too short for that outcome.
It’ll be steamy one in DC on Thursday, with 50-70% humidity expected and 33C heat in the shade, so tough conditions.
Frances Tiafoe vs Daniil Medvedev
I expected Medvedev to be a touch shorter for this one, with the Russian looking in good touch in round one and Tiafoe coming into what’s essentially his home tournament with one win in eight matches.
Indeed, it’s been a disappointing season so far for Tiafoe, who has a losing record for the year and a service hold/break total of just 97.6 on all surfaces.
His win over a poor Alexander Bublik in round one was just his second at this tournament and although his stats are slightly better on outdoor hard alone in 2019 (9-7 win/loss and a hold/break total of 101.9) this looks a tough ask for Tiafoe on recent form.
The American is 3-13 against top-10 opposition such as Medvedev is these days and when he does lose it tends to be by a bigger margin that the 2.5 games that he gets on the handicap today.
In 14 of his last 18 defeats in best-of-three set matches Tiafoe has lost by at least three games and I’m struggling to envisage a scenario here – unless he has a superb day – where he remains consistent enough to punch regular holes in the defence of Medvedev.
I can’t think of anything that Tiafoe does that’s better than his Russian opponent, with Tiafoe’s big weapon of the forehand being an inconsistent one most of the time.
Medvedev is nothing if not consistent and I’d expect him to simply wear Tiafoe down sooner or later in this first encounter between the pair since way back in 2015 on clay when Medvedev was 468 in the world.
And that gap in consistency shows in the stats, with Medvedev 30-14 win/loss in 2019 at main level on all surfaces and with a hold/break total of 110 (108.8 on outdoor hard courts alone).
Medvedev -2.5 games at 1.84 for me here and I’m tempted to take the Russian to won the tournament as well at a price of around 7-1.
Also in the bottom half and potential opponents for the Russian in the semi finals are Kyle Edmund and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who clash on Thursday, with Tsonga favoured at a price of around 1.60.
Edmund looked pretty decent in round one against admittedly more limited opposition in Lloyd Harris than Tsonga had in Karen Khachanov and I am a bit tempted by the Brit as underdog here.
What puts me off is that Edmund does tend to go into his shell in matches against ‘big time’ players like Tsonga and at times he seems to lack the self confidence that someone like Tsonga possesses.
Edmund certainly has the game to beat the Frenchman, but does he believe in himself enough in these sorts of matches? I’m yet to be convinced that he does.
Benoit Paire is another Frenchman in action today and he takes on John Isner, who looked probably the best he’s been off the ground in the Hurkacz match since he came back from injury.
Paire is 13-16 win/loss (6-8 on outdoor hard only) against the big servers in my database and after toiling in the heat for two-and-a-half hours on Wednesday (after leading a set and 4-1 became a dogfight) I wonder how likely he is to have the discipline you need to face Isner on a boiling hot day.
Probably not very likely and I’m more tempted by the man we had the other day at a good price and that’s Yoshihito Nishioka, who faces Nick Kyrgios for the fourth time.
By rights in these quick conditions you’d expect Kyrgios’ power to rip through the less powerful Nishioka and he has won all three meetings, but it hasn’t been easy for NK by any means and he only won by a total of eight points over three sets in very similar conditions in Atlanta three years ago as a 1.15 chance.
He’s a 1.40 chance today and if we look at his record when priced up between 1.30 and 1.49 we find that he’s lost three of his last four and in his last 10 in that price range he’s won one (last night against Gilles Simon) without either dropping a set or playing at least one breaker.
Perhaps that’s not a shock when you consider that he’s only broken serve 11.7% of the time in the past year at main level on all surfaces (Nishioka has broken 27% of the time on hard courts this past year at main level).
If NK just ambles through his return games again today the over games or over sets or even the Nishioka win are all possible outcomes.
Best Bets
1 point win Medvedev -2.5 games to beat Tiafoe at 1.84
0.5 points win over 2.5 sets in Kyrgios/Nishioka at 2.38
2 points win Medvedev to win Washington at 8.0
