Debrief
Andrey Rublev provided us with a return in Hamburg last week, as our 50-1 each-way pick made the final, but, as has been the case so often this season, he lost in the final in a tight one.
Rublev’s defeat is the eight time we’ve lost an outright in the deciding match this season in what’s now a 2-8 win/loss record in final matches in 2019, but it was still a fair profit on the week.
Conditions and trends
The final tournament of the clay season, the Generali Open in Kitzbuhel is always an interesting one for punters, with number one seeds having a dreadful record here.
None have won since Goran Ivanisevic in 1994 and Philipp Kohlschreiber in 2012 was the first number one seed to have made the final since Thomas Muster in 1995.
Played at 762m of altitude it’s been a great one for qualifiers lately, with both finalists last year coming through qualies and four players from the qualies have made at least the semis in the last five years.
It was really hot in Kitzbuhel last year, which made it play even quicker, but the weather is expected to be much less settled this coming week, with thunderstorms predicted and cooler temperatures than last year.
High seeds usually fare much better in Washington DC, with one of the top five seeds winning it each year since the unseeded Radek Stepanek took the title back in 2011.
It’s usually boiling hot and humid in DC this time of year and the forecast predicts the same again this year, with a ‘Real Feel’ of 39 expected on Monday and Tuesday at least.
They play on a quickish Decoturf surface, with Penn balls and only Shenzhen of the outdoor hard court best-of-three tournaments features more tie breaks than the 44% of Washington.
In Los Cabos they have also seen 44% of their matches (only three years on tour so far) feature a tie break and their Solflex outdoor hard court is on the quicker side as well.
That didn’t stop 14-1 shot Fabio Fognini beating Juan Martin Del Potro in the final here last year though and they play late in the day to avoid the worst of the heat.
Generali Open
So, the omens aren’t good for top seed Dominic Thiem in Kitzbuhel in this number one seed’s graveyard in Austria and he’s struggled to cope with the expectation of the fans at this event.
Since making the 2014 final he’s lost four of his last six matches in Kitzbuhel and similarly to last week in Hamburg I’m happy to take Thiem on at this time of year after his big effort in the regular clay swing.
Kitzbuhel resident Philipp Kohlschreiber has a fine record here, winning 10 of his last 12 matches at his ‘home’ tournament and taking the title in 2015 and 2017, but he’ll need a huge improvement on recent form to figure this time.
Kohli looks all but gone on recent form, as to a certain extent does his round one opponent Richard Gasquet, so I’m tempted to give another chance to Leo Mayer in this top half.
We know he plays well at this time of the year and he had a tough one last week at his beloved Hamburg when losing first up to a highly motivated Rudolf Molleker, but if the forecast is correct it may not be quite as quick as it was last year and that will help Mayer, who, like Thiem doesn’t like to be rushed.
There are several others that couldn’t be ruled out in the top half, including Lorenzo Sonego, Federico Delbonis, Pablo Andujar and Fernando Verdasco, but Mayer at 33-1 is a fair option for small stakes.
The bottom half is packed with possibilities, such as defending champion Martin Klizan, last week’s semi finalist Pablo Carreno Busta, Casper Ruud, Pablo Cuevas, Albert Ramos (last week’s Gstaad winner) and the likes of Dusan Lajovic, Marco Cecchinato and Jeremy Chardy.
But I think the quick conditions might just help Marton Fucsovics, who, if he’s on a go week, could find it very suitable in Kitzbuhel and a repeat of his dominant performance on quickish clay at slight altitude in Geneva isn’t out of the question.
That time at around half the altitude that we have in Kitzbuhel the Hungarian ripped through the field – including the man he faces in round one here – with ease, taking the title for the loss of just one set.
He beat Albert Ramos one and two, bagelled Stan Wawrinka and won with a lot to spare that week having lost six of his previous eight matches coming into Geneva.
Fucsovics isn’t on a great run this time either, winning back-to-back matches in only one of his last eight tournaments since a quarter final run in Munich (he also made QFs in Munich when he won Geneva).
Clearly the in-form Ramos might be a trickier proposition now that Ramos has just won at altitude in Gstaad, but he’ll probably be tired after that and if Fucsovics comes into this week with the right attitude he has the conditions to go well I feel.
It’s a very open draw, but you don’t need to be an out and out clay dog to do well here, as the likes of Denis Istomin, Kohlschreiber and Nikoloz Basilashvili have shown in recent times.
Klizan might well fancy it this week after the heat did for him in Hamburg last week and with his 10-2 record in all matches here he’s an obvious danger, as is Umag champion Lajovic, but I’m happy to take a chance on Fucsovics (who’s 2-0 against Klizan as well.
I mentioned the record of the qualifiers here, but I can’t say that I really fancy any of them this time around (there again, I wouldn’t have fancied Istomin last year).
Hugo Dellien has ability, but is it too quick for him here? I suspect it could be, while Guillermo Garcia Lopez surely is past his sell by date and Midler and Bachinger don’t seem up to it to me.
Citi Open Washington
A packed 64-man field where one of the favourites often wins isn’t the most appealing of betting contests for me, with so many possibilities it’s hard to even narrow it down to a few.
In the top half, number one seed Stefanos Tsitsipas is one that has on occasion struggled in the heat and humidity of the North American hard court swing and given that conditions are set to be brutal that may help us to make a pick.
If we’re saying that Tsitsipas may struggle, the most likely alternatives in the top half include: Kevin Anderson, John Isner, David Goffin, and Nick Kyrgios, but there are doubts about all of them.
Anderson is lacking matches after recovering from tennis elbow, while Isner is in a similar situation and hasn’t yet looked at his best since returning to the tour, like Anderson, in the grass swing.
Goffin has struggled badly in the heat and humidity over the years, while Kyrgios could be anything on the day, as we know.
But I prefer taking a chance on 66-1 shot Hubert Hurkacz in this top half of the draw.
The Pole played some great stuff on hard courts earlier in the season when he made the quarter finals of Indian Wells and defeated the likes of Kei Nishikori (twice), Dominic Thiem (who’d just won Indian Wells), Lucas Pouille, Denis Shapovalov and Matteo Berrettini.
Since then clay and grass haven’t been suitable surfaces for his game really, but he still beat Mayer and Lajovic and took a set off Djokovic at Wimbledon, so I think he’s been forgotten about a bit on this return to hard courts.
In the bottom half of the draw I’m leaning towards Daniil Medvedev and Alex De Minaur, but there are so many possibilities that I’ll probably wait until after round one has been completed before making any plays in this half of the draw.
Best Bets
1 point win Mayer to win Kitzbuhel at 34.0
1 point win Fucsovics to win Kitzbuhel at 26.0
0.5 points each-way Hurkacz to win Washington at 67.0
