It’s been one of those weeks where my other suggestions have been great, but the final selections haven’t, and it was like that again on Saturday when Ivo Karlovic, Philipp Kohlschreiber and Yoshihito Nishioka won as good underdogs, but Guido Andreozzi lost.
Laslo Djere had no problems transitioning from the clay to hard courts or any sort of a physical let down after a tough spell of matches in South America and he was too good for Andreozzi on the day.
Sunday’s underdogs of interest include Steve Johnson, Roberto Carballes Baena, Robin Haase, Lucas Pouille and Adrian Mannarino.
I said in my preview on Friday that Carballes Baena had a decent chance against Ryan Harrison in the slow conditions in the evening and RCB won it in straight sets and I wouldn’t count him out against Diego Schwartzman either.
It’s largely based on fitness, with Schwartzman having struggled physically in his matches of late, and it wouldn’t be the biggest shock in the world if RCB were able to grind past Schwartzman if the Argentine is still not fit.
Haase, on his last 50 matches on outdoor hard at main level compared to those of Andrey Rublev, arguably should be closer to the Russian in the betting than he is in what looks a 50/50 match.
Rublev’s lack of consistency was highlighted again in qualies here when he was bagelled by Bjorn Fratangelo in the final set of their encounter and he’s only won back-to-back matches at Tour level once since last July’s Washington DC event.
The two clashes between Haase and Rublev last year were tight (one win each) and slight value on the Dutchman for me here.
Denis Shapovalov vs Steve Johnson
Johnson’s comfortable win over Taylor Fritz in round one may well have given him enough of a confidence boost for the American to cause another minor upset in round two against Shapovalov.
Fritz was nowhere near the Johnson serve, with the latter winning 95% of his first serve points in that match, and if he continues in that manner this looks a tough opener for Shapovalov in these testing conditions.
Johnson, perhaps surprisingly for a player with his limitations on the backhand side, has a very good record indeed against left-handers, winning 12 of his 16 main level matches on all hard courts against lefties (9-3 on outdoor hard only).
In those 12 outdoor hard court matches he’s held serve 91% of the time and broken 23.5% of the time, which are excellent stats indeed, although admittedly only over a relatively small amount of matches.
There’s certainly not been the weakness against lefties that you might expect for a player so heavily reliant on the forehand side and even on clay at main level he’s won five of his last six matches against lefties.
The one lefty that Johnson has struggled against has been one that loves to come to the net, Mischa Zverev, with the German happy to anticipate the backhand slice from Johnson and finish off points at close range on the volley. Shapovalov is unlikely to utilise that tactic and even less likely in these slow conditions.
Johnson's won five of his last eight (one of the three losses was a five set defeat) as slight underdog (between 2.0 and 2.49) and has a fair chance here.
One favourite that I think is worth backing is Guido Pella, who should be well suited by these slow conditions and on another cloudy an cool day at Indian Wells it seems ideal for Pella.
There’s a chance he may be fatigued after winning Sao Paulo, but all of his matches were straight sets affairs there and the final was a week ago now, so he should have had enough time to acclimatise.
His opponent Alex Bolt has shown signs of improvement lately, but he’s very serve-dominated, breaking only 18% of the time at Challenger level and 15% of the time at main level on outdoor hard in his career.
That falls to 14% at all levels against left-handers, against whom Bolt has lost 12 of his last 17 (seven of his last nine) at Futures, Challengers and main level, so facing fellow lefties looks a problem for the Aussie.
Bolt beat a poor Ernests Gulbis in round one and Pella -1.5 games at 1.70 looks the bet here.
If you’re prepared to trust Adrian Mannarino he might well give Kei Nishikori something to think about at an event where Nishi hasn’t really been able to handle the conditions too well.
Nishikori is10-9 win/loss, with a hold/break total of just 101 here at Indian Wells in the main draw, while Mannarino has performed quite well: 8-6 win/loss and 104.4 hold/break total.
Nishi struggled to break Mannarino down in more favourable conditions for him (and much less so for Mannarino, who struggles indoors) at the Paris Masters last season, with the Frenchman winning 80% of his first serve points, but rather typically capitulating, getting broken in the only two break points he faced.
Nishikori is coming off a strange performance in defeat against Hubert Hurkacz last time out in Dubai and Mannarino after coming through in three sets in round one should find the conditions much less windy today than during that match.
Nishi has a fine record against lefties, but in these conditions he’ll do very well in his opening match to cover a 4.5 game handicap against a tricky opponent like Mannarino.
Lucas Pouille has been off the tour with illness since February, but should he be underdog against Hubert Hurkacz today? I’m not so sure and despite Pouille’s 1-3 record at Indian Wells I wouldn’t be backing the Pole at odds-on.
Best Bets
0.5 points win Pella -1.5 games to beat Bolt at 1.70
0.5 points win Mannarino +4.5 games to beat Nishikori at 1.94
0.5 points win Johnson to beat Shapovalov at 2.28
