It was quite a night in Cincy on Saturday when once again Daniil Medvedev defied expectations to come from behind to defeat defending champion and world number one Novak Djokovic.
Medvedev will play his third straight final on Sunday at (not before) 16:00 local time (21:00 local) against David Goffin after the Belgian took down Richard Gasquet in straight sets.
It looks like it’ll be another test for the players physically on Sunday, with 34C heat in the shade and 50% humidity, combined with 17kph wind.
And once again that brings the physical condition of Medvedev into question, with a draining three-setter against Djokovic now to take into account, as well as his 15 matches since July 30.
It was quite some display from Medvedev from a set down when the Russian decided that his usual level wasn’t going to cut it against the supreme defence of Djokovic.
He went for everything, redlining his game, especially on second serve when he opted for the Kyrgios tactic of hitting both serves at roughly the same speed and if someone plays like that and it comes off not even a Djokovic can do much about it.
To keep that up over a couple of sets was quite something and the normal assumption here would be to assume that Medvedev would be likely to have a bit of a let down after beating the world number one to make the final of a Masters 1000.
“To be honest, I don't know how I did it,” Medvedev admitted. “I was so tired in the first set and playing Novak, I thought I wasn't able to keep the intensity.
“At one moment, I said to myself ‘why do a normal second serve if I'm going to lose the point?’ I started to win much more after that.”
I’ve thought that fatigue would get the better of Medvedev several times this week and it hasn’t happened yet.
Goffin would appear to have a significant fitness advantage coming into this one, having played one match fewer than Medvedev this week and just seven in the same timeframe as the Russian has played 15.
And in conditions that are set to be tough again I’m not too keen on the 1.43 about Medvedev winning this against an opponent he lost to a month or so ago at Wimbledon.
We were on Goffin that day at the All England Club and he did it the hard way in five sets and had to come from 2-1 down to get the win, despite being ahead in most statistical categories and winning 21 more points in total in the match.
It was a really to and fro affair of 29 break opportunities and 12 breaks of serve and Goffin didn’t have one of his best serving days that day, putting in only 49% of first serve, and that’s the part of Goffin’s game that makes him rather unpredictable these days.
This week on that score Goffin has been pretty consistent on serve – between 55 and 65% each match – so if he can keep that up on Sunday the Belgian certainly has the chance to do something here.
He restricted Gasquet to winning only three points on second serve on Saturday, so the back court game is there, but there is that question mark over Goffin’s belief that is always a nagging doubt with him.
Goffin came into this week looking like he was starting to get into one of his funks again after losing heavily to Djokovic at Wimbledon, but so far this week Goffin has shrugged that off.
He knows he can beat Medvedev and given that Goffin was slight underdog at around 2.20 last time and a 2.85 chance today I’m happy to take Goffin for small stakes with a 3.5 game start on the handicap here at 1.82.
The Winston-Salem draw looks wide-open and I’m still awaiting prices for that currently, but that outright preview will be next up as soon as possible.
Best Bet
0.5 points win Goffin +3.5 games to beat Medvedev at 1.82
