Maximilian Marterer returned after a day’s delay to beat Taylor Fritz and complete a successful trio of odds-against winners from Wednesday’s bets and while we added two more on Thursday we didn’t really progress as I’d have liked.
It’s still five underdog winners from seven bets though and I’ll take that after round one of a M1000.
Round two produced only eight underdog winners last year from 32 matches and this decade there have been an average of 29% underdog winners, so significantly fewer than in round one.
It’s set to be much brighter in Miami on Friday, with sunshine replacing cloud and drizzle and much less humid than it has been at around 30% in 24C heat, so pretty good playing conditions.
Federico Delbonis vs John Millman
I’m happy to stick with Delbonis in this second match of the day on Court 8 when he takes on Millman for the second time this season.
At home in Australia back in January in much quicker conditions it was Millman that, unsurprisingly, came out on top, but in four sets and the Aussie won only 42% of his second serve points that day, compared to the 55% that Delbonis won on his second ball.
That indicates that Delbonis was the better man in neutral rallies and the key stat in that match was the 81% of first serves won by Millman, who made 69% of his first serves that day.
In his last 50 matches on outdoor hard at main level Millman has won only 68.6% of his first serve points and made 62.7% of them, so that day in Melbourne he served really well and was helped by the faster conditions.
That’s not going to be the case today and Millman has a fair bit to prove at M1000 level, winning only four of his 11 matches so far in his career at this level.
He’s lost five of his last seven against lefties and in all 13 that he’s played against them at main level Millman hasn’t won any in straight sets and of course he lost to Delbonis on clay in Bastad in straight sets last season.
Delbonis created 14 break chances in two sets against Delbonis that day on slow clay and I don’t think it’s quick enough here for the flat hitting Millman to have any real advantage in the conditions.
Millman's current form isn't great either, losing to Guido Andreozzi last week at the Phoenix Challenger, and Delbonis' one match here will surely be an advantage.
Moving on to a match that takes place on Court 1 at around 20:30 UK time and would you back a player at 1.55 who’s won only four of his last 18 matches at Masters 1000 level; is 1-3 win/loss against today’s opponent; and who hasn’t won a match since the Australian Open?
No? Me neither, but that’s the proposition we’ve been given about Lucas Pouille against Albert Ramos and in slow conditions I’ll take a chance on Ramos, who looks to be getting his confidence back at the moment.
Ramos has managed to grind down Pouille in their clay clashes at the French Open and Monte-Carlo Masters in the past, while Pouille won in faster conditions in Auckland on outdoor hard.
In both of those French Open and Monte-Carlo matches Pouille really faded towards the end and surely he’s lacking match fitness at the moment, too, having played only three times since Melbourne.
It would be no surprise if Ramos were able to take the sting out of Pouille again on these slow courts and +2.5 games on Ramos at 1.94 looks the bet there.
Another one I considered for Friday was Jeremy Chardy, who is more than capable of taking down his fellow countryman Gilles Simon in conditions that I feel are too slow for Simon these days.
It will be interesting to see how our hero from Indian Wells, Dominic Thiem, gets on today after winning that maiden M1000 title, and perhaps the change in conditions give the in-form Hubert Hurkacz a fair shot of upsetting the Austrian.
On current form the big Pole is in with a chance here, but much depends on how well Thiem adapts to the change in playing conditions. Maybe Hurkacz to win set one or on the handicap are options there.
Three of our outrights go today and I can’t complain about the draw that any of them have got, with Fabio Fognini facing Guido Andreozzi, Nikoloz Basilashvili taking on Mischa Zverev and Nick Kyrgios up against Alexander Bublik.
You never really know with any of my trio, but any of them losing today would be disappointing.
Best Bets
1 point win Delbonis to beat Millman at 2.35
1 point win Ramos +2.5 games to beat Pouille at 1.94
