Our one daily bet on Wednesday was a winner when Leonardo Mayer saved three match points (two consecutively) to come out on top against Matteo Berrettini and it feels like a very long time since we enjoyed a winner from several match points down.
I’ll take it and I’ll also take another good effort from our Sydney long shot Yoshihito Nishioka and from Auckland outright Cam Norrie, but Marton Fucsovics was poor against John Millman and, as often happens, last week’s Brisbane outright Millman defeated this week’s, Fucsovics.
We’ve got eight matches on the card in Sydney and Auckland on Thursday and three that I like in terms of possible value.
Pablo Carreno Busta vs Jan-Lennard Struff
Struff has a poor record in the latter stages of ATP World Tour tournaments, losing 10 of his last 12 quarter finals and if PCB is close to match sharp the Spaniard has the sort of game that can blunt Struff’s.
The big German on his day can be a match for most, but he’ll have to be somewhere near his best on Thursday if he’s to breach the defences of Carreno Busta often enough to win.
PCB has accrued some excellent stats on outdoor hard over the last year, with 18 wins and eight losses from his 26 matches at main level, and in those matches he held serve 84.4% of the time, breaking 26.1% of the time for a combined total of 110.5.
He went 9-1 last season in matches against players ranked 51+ on this surface at ATP Tour and Grand Slam level, losing only the last one in Shanghai to Benoit Paire and that was his penultimate match of a season that ended early due to injury.
Struff is 8-36 win/loss in main level matches against the current top-25, breaking serve only 11.1% of the time in the 13 played on outdoor hard courts (4-9 win/loss).
The obvious drawback in this wager is the lack of match practice that PCB has had, playing only a couple of games against David Ferrer this week and nothing before that since last October.
But I’m happy to chance that he’s in good enough shape to win this against a player with Struff’s record against the better players on tour and in the later stages of events at this level.
Another one in Auckland that I feel offers some value is on our outright hope Cameron Norrie, who not only has superior stats to Taylor Fritz on this surface, but the American also has a weak record so far against lefties and in ATP quarter finals.
I said yesterday that Fritz could well catch John Isner cold and so it proved, but he looks a shaky favourite here, given that he’s all forehand and has a 3-10 record at main level on all surfaces (3-7 on outdoor hard) and he’s 3-8 in quarter finals at this level.
Indeed, Fritz is 1-3 win/loss (the one win was in a final set tie break) in quarter finals of which he was favourite to win and with Norrie also ahead by 7% in their respective hold/break stats on outdoor hard this past year I’m struggling to agree with these odds.
Norrie is also the one with more motivation here, playing in what’s effectively his home tournament, and as we’re on him outright at a good price I don’t want to push my luck with him, but Fritz looks opposable.
The last one that could offer value is Fabio Fognini as underdog against Philipp Kohlschreiber, with the Italian having compiled some very nice stats on outdoor hard in the last year (19-7 win/loss and a 108.9 hold/break total).
Kohli looks to have been priced as favourite here based on the head-to-head of 6-2 in his favour, but their most recent clash was back in 2017 and since then Kohli has downgraded a bit at 35 years old and Fognini is at a career high in the rankings.
The German has gone 6-13 win/loss in the last year against the current top-25 on all surfaces and while he’s looked decent so far this week he has faced limited and/or inexperienced opposition.
We got the usual Fabio show in his round one struggle against Peter Gojowczyk, but odds-against on the Italian is quite tempting in this one.
Briefly on Sydney, we have our 40-1 chance Yoshihito Nishioka going for us in a clash of two of the shortest players on tour when he takes on Diego Schwartzman in what will be a treat for fans of great movement and ball striking.
There’ll be no big serving in this one and probably loads of breaks of serve, but while Schwartzman is probably the right favourite our man isn’t without a decent chance on the day.
Best Bet
1 point win Carreno Busta to beat Struff at 2.10
