We found another nice winner on the daily bets on Saturday when Stan Wawrinka took down Kei Nishikori in Rotterdam as a 2.80 chance, but gallingly, our New York outright Sam Querrey was beaten as a 1.25 shot by qualifier Brayden Schnur.
Querrey blew five set points (and a 4-2 lead in the tie break) in set one and having got back into the match to level it from a set and 3-1 down he was sloppy to start set three and was unable to recover.
We’ve got three finals on Sunday, starting with Rotterdam at around 14:30 UK time.
Stanislas Wawrinka vs Gael Monfils
It’s mildly annoying that my second choice in the Rotterdam outrights, Gael Monfils, has made the final here this week, but his record in finals makes him hard to fancy against his mate Wawrinka in the title match.
I said yesterday that the slow surface in Rotterdam may give Monfils a chance against Daniil Medvedev and he eventually managed to use it to his advantage in a two-hour plus battle of plenty of long rallies.
We’ll see how he comes out of that encounter today in terms of fitness and that’s one possible negative for Lamonf, with the others being the factor of facing a close friend and his weak record in title matches.
He’s lost some shockers in finals over the years (5-8 win/loss as favourite, including 4 of his last 6) and overall he’s 7-21 in main level finals, winning only three of his last 13 (should have been two, but Karlovic choked it in the Washington final of 2016).
Indeed, the only time in his career that Monfils has won one as more than an 2.10 underdog was his very first title in Sopot back in 2005.
Wawrinka has a far better record in finals, winning 12 of his last 15 and he’s 9-2 in main level title matches that he’s been priced up as favourite for.
He’s almost certainly the better man when it comes to big match temperament and having beaten his mate Benoit Paire nine times and Monfils four times the Swiss has few issues in defeating his pals.
Wawrinka has won 10% more of his first serve points than Monfils this week in Rotterdam (dead level on second serve points won), with Monfils so far being excellent when it comes to taking his chances (won 53% of his break points).
I’m a little concerned about the fitness of Wawrinka in the sense that he hasn’t played this many matches in one tournament since the 2017 French Open (where he beat Monfils in their only career clash since 2011), and Monfils will probably try and make it a physical battle.
This pair practice together a lot and clearly know each others’ games inside out, so in terms of a bet I like the idea of a small investment on over 10.5 games in set one at 2.60 here.
It’s likely to be cagey early on and the 1.56 on Wawrinka winning the match is just a bit too short for me.
The second final of the day is in Buenos Aires at around 17:00 UK time and it features Diego Schwartzman and Marco Cecchinato.
Schwartzman came back from a set and 4-2 down (and a break down in set three and also match point down) to sneak past Dominic Thiem and make the final of his home event, but he still isn’t playing well.
Perhaps the home crowd will get him over the line against Cecchinato, who played probably his best match of the clay swing so far in a win over a jaded Guido Pella on Saturday, but I couldn’t back Schwartzman at 1.64.
It’ll be a first career clash since a clay Challenger in 2013 (won by Schwartzman) for these two and if the match wasn’t in Argentina I’d probably take Cecchinato at these prices, but I’ll pass.
Talking of players that saved match points to make a final, Reilly Opelka did it against John Isner, who should have won it in straight sets, but blew it from 6-4 up in the second set toe break.
So, it’s Opelka against qualifier Brayden Schnur in the final at around 21:00 UK time and the way that these two have been serving tie breaks seem highly likely in this first career clash.
Schnur has a good serve and he landed it 76% of the time against Querrey (73% on average all week) and he’s played 0.36 tie breaks per set in the main draw this week, while Opelka has played 0.50 per set (he’s served at 70% all week).
Therefore a price of 3.35 on there being two or more breakers in this match is of interest in what’s likely to be a serve-dominated affair.
Best Bets
0.5 points win over 10.5 games in set one of Wawrinka/Monfils at 2.60
0.5 points win over 1.5 tie breaks in Opelka/Schnur at 3.35
