THE new year of 2020 stretches out before us full of promise and possibility. The schedule is barely written beyond January and the nature of the fight game means that many of the most exciting turns will come out of left field.
Fighters you considered unremarkable will suddenly be knocking on the door of the world title, while fighters you considered nightmare match ups for champions might get their big chance and look disappointingly average. And of course, around the time the UFC entered a partnership with USADA, injury drop outs went through the roof so last minute substitutions are part and parcel of this business.
With those caveats understood, let’s consider all the things that are likely to happen in the UFC’s next year.
No better way to open a decade!
@TheNotoriousMMA vs @CowboyCerrone
1️⃣7️⃣ DAYS AWAY! #UFC246 pic.twitter.com/vxdXo0w08C
— UFC (@ufc) January 1, 2020
It Has to Happen Now
For most MMA fans, 2020 exists to get Khabib Nurmagomedov versus Tony Ferguson done. Khabib Nurmagomedov is the UFC lightweight champion, but Tony Ferguson was also the interim champion and never lost that belt. They have beaten all the best guys in the division except each other and, as you will likely know by now, they have been booked to fight each other four times already—with each man being forced to pull out twice.
It is a maddening, absurd situation but the fight hasn’t lost an ounce of its glimmer. To pull off the consistency that both men have in what is notoriously the most dog-eat-dog division in MMA, Ferguson and Nurmagomedov already have claims to being all time greats—the winner of their fight might be the best MMA fighter to have ever competed.
And while Nurmagomedov vs Ferguson is booked way down the road in April, the rest of the lightweight division is going to keep moving. Justin Gaethje has reinvented himself and established himself as the obvious next in line—but he’s going to have to do something to get paid while he’s waiting. Kevin Lee is rebuilding himself under new coaches and damn near killed Gregor Gillespie to see out 2019. And Carlos Diego Ferreira has stormed up through the rankings as another surprising also-ran-turned-killer in the tradition of Rafael dos Anjos and Dustin Poirier.
Welterweight and Welterweight without the Wrestling
Away from the meritocracy of the lightweight division there is the “BMF” division. Something that was invented for one fight between Jorge Masvidal and Nate Diaz but is now depressingly close to being taken seriously. However, with Conor McGregor and Donald Cerrone slated to fight at welterweight in a couple of weeks, the UFC’s biggest star can bounce into a match with Masvidal if he wins and Diaz if he loses—ensuring pay-per-view buys while not tying up real titles.
⭐ The McGregor Show is like nothing else in sports ⭐
Good or bad opinions we are all watching January 18th !! #UFC246 #UFC2020 #Notorious pic.twitter.com/MyODUCzXBE
— Rawmmanews (@rawmmanews) January 2, 2020
The problem is that while McGregor, Cerrone and Diaz are going to struggle to rub two good wins together at welterweight, Jorge Masvidal can actually compete with the best of them. Before Masvidal somehow convinced the world that Nate Diaz was his toughest fight to date, he beat actual world class Darren Till and Ben Askren. Yet if Masvidal continues taking money fights, he could end up missing out on a chance he likely deserves at the welterweight title. Masvidal vs Kamaru Usman could be a compelling fight—Masvidal is hard to take down and harder to keep down, but is it worth turning down the money of a McGregor fight?
Elsewhere in the welterweight top ten, Leon Edwards continues to put in great, measured performances while being largely ignored by the public, and he looks to be matching up with former champ Tyron Woodley for early in 2020. Also worth noting as we go into the new year are Geoff Neal—the southpaw knockout artist who is about to sneak into the top ten, Li Jingliang—whose pressure, footwork and boxing have come on in leaps and bounds over the last year, and the great Stephen ‘Wonderboy’ Thompson who is always just a couple of karate-boxing clinics away from title contention.
The Wasteland North of Middleweight
In the upper divisions, middleweight is a bit of a mess. The brand new champion, Israel Adesanya is apparently going to wind up fighting Yoel Romero—who is on a two fight losing streak—because the next obvious contender, Paulo Costa is out of action. However, Jared Cannonier was the surprise of 2019 in that division—completely reinventing himself as a knockout artist who cannot be taken down. Cannonier is surely just one good win away from a title shot of his own—or maybe just a Romero injury away from it.
Light heavyweight is still terrible, but at least Dominick Reyes is finally getting thrown in with the long reigning champion, Jon Jones. As a long, rangey striker with good counter punching and a great kicking game, Reyes could give Jones a lot of questions—particularly as we know that Jones dislikes low kicks and fighting opponents of his own height. Aside from the quiet resurgence of Volkan Oezdemir, and Jan Blachowicz’s state of being constantly on the cusp of a title shot, you can probably skip the 205 pound division for most of this year too.
UFC'S FIGHTER OF THE YEAR
• Israel Adesanya pic.twitter.com/McqmTscwmR— ℂℍ (@MMAPORT) December 29, 2019
Heavyweight might be in slightly better shape. The UFC have announced that they want to do a third match between Daniel Cormier and Stipe Miocic after their ugly but entertaining banger in 2019. Cormier has been teasing retirement for some time and it is very clear that he cannot do this for much longer. Francis Ngannou is waiting in the wings—still a monstrous knockout artist, still untested in his cardio and wrestling outside of the first round.
Ngannou is set to fight Jairzinho Rozenstruick in March—a battle of the big bangers—and that will likely decide the next in line. The only other fighter worth paying attention to at heavyweight right now is the marvellous Frenchman, Cyril Gane—who has all the hype in the world as a striker, but who keeps defying expectations and submitting opponents.
Flyweight and the UFC’s Two Best Divisions
The UFC’s last incumbent “double champ”, Henry Cejudo has finally been stripped of his flyweight belt, and that division has been given permission to move forwards with the all action knockout artist Deiveson Figuereido slated to face the savvy old vet, Joseph Benavidez in February to decide the new champion. This is certainly a good sign for a division that spent much of 2019 on the chopping block.
Bantamweight and featherweight remain two playgrounds of destruction, full of fantastic finishers and potential for great match ups. The new featherweight champion, Alexander Volkanovski is likely to find himself matched up with Zabit Magomedsharipov at some point this year and we will get to see if Magomedsharipov’s famously dodgy gas tank can hold up for five rounds. Top ten featherweight bangers, Josh Emmett and Arnold Allen meet at the end of the month, and Andre Fili and Sodiq Yusuff are set to do battle on the McGregor – Cerrone card.
SOMEBODY DARE INTERRUPT CRINGEJUDO⁉@HenryCejudo #PFLChampionship pic.twitter.com/cI4Xk3z3Wg
— ESPN MMA (@espnmma) January 1, 2020
At bantamweight, Cejudo could be looking down the barrel of a match up with either Petr Yan or Aljamain Sterling, both of whom have been putting in terrific performances lately and who are very different fighters. Yan is an overwhelming pressure fighter, a strong boxer and clinch fighter, and a big hitter. Sterling is a funky kicker and grappler, who has transformed himself into a much more dangerous opponent through his mastery of distance and a very high pace and volume of strikes.
Whoever doesn’t get the Cejudo fight likely gets the unenviable opportunity to keep warm against Marlon Moraes. Then there is Corey Sandhagen, a marvellous technical striker on the cusp of title contention, and all the other killers of bantamweight like Garbrandt, Assuncao, Rivera, Sandro. It is a division that many casual fans do not know much about, but it is perhaps the hardest to sum up quickly.
Women’s Strawweight
In the women’s divisions: flyweight and bantamweight have split enough talent for one good division between two, so Amanda Nunes and Valentina Shevchenko will be struggling to find worthy contenders for their belts all year. Featherweight is apparently still a division despite having no fighters, because the UFC seems to like Megan Anderson.
The one that matters—and has always mattered—is strawweight. Long reigning ex-champ, Joanna Jedrzejczyk will take on new champion, Weili Zhang in a terrific match up. Zhang is somewhat one-note on the feet—hanging back behind her inside low kick and scoring points—but she is undeniably tricky, while Jedrzejczyk is a better rounded fighter but struggles with patient opponents.
There is also the prospect of Tatiana Suarez and Rose Namajunas returning. Suarez is currently ranked #3 in the division and is a monstrous wrestler, but is somewhat prone to bad luck in her health outside the ring. Namajunas was the champion until a brutal Jessica Andrade slam knocked her unconscious and had her questioning whether to return. If we get either, or both, back in action it will be a very good year for women’s MMA.
