IT'S the NFL Wild Card round and the last chance saloon for eight franchises who have been close but not close enough so far. There are only four matches for NFL expert Nat Coombs' to get his teeth into, but the same number of tips. After going 10 from 12 in recent weeks, Nat's taking some serious form into the post-season.
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LOCK
Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans, Saturday Jan 4, 21:35
Straight off the bat, I’m adding an asterix disclaimer to this pick, which is dependent on Wil Fuller starting for the Texans. If he does, then I think Houston has too much for this talented and spirited Bills defense who won’t get a huge amount of help here from Josh Allen and the Buffalo offense, who’ll also have to contend with a returning JJ Watt.
Fuller has speed and adds the downfield dimension which immediately propels the Houston attack into a far more varied, and potent, beast. Leading WR DeAndre Hopkins can capitalise on the attention Fuller garners from the Bills defense, and QB Deshawn Watson not only is given further capable receiving options, but his dual threat capabilities, and indeed the entire Texans running game is enhanced as a result.
Bills quarterback Josh Allen is another dual threat QB, known more for his running, but capable of firing strikes when called upon. He’s still inexperienced though and the Bills receiving corp is weaker than pretty much every other playoff team, John Brown notwithstanding and I just can’t see Buffalo racking up enough points to keep up here. Fuller is a game time decision, so if he goes, so do you guys!
Pick: Texans -2.5 (17/20)
The Texans represent the worst team defense that the Bills have faced since Week 11 (Dolphins) in mid-November. Go and earn your head coaching opportunity, Brian Daboll. We will learn a lot about you on Saturday.
— BuffaloBills (@DougFlutie777) December 31, 2019
PUNT
Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints, Sunday Jan 5, 18:05
New Orleans is one of the form teams coming into the playoffs, in particular quarterback Drew Brees, who has shot down loose talk of his demise, with another dominating season, overcoming injury to post superb numbers once again. His connection with Michael Thomas is understandably emphasised, and the match-up against Minnesota’s pass defense is heavily weighted towards the Saints.
It would appear too that the Vikings strongest offensive asset – its ground game – is up for a difficult test, despite the return of Dalvin Cook, with the Saints possessing one of the strongest defenses against the run, not allowing a 100-yard rusher all season but Cook is a primetime player, and could find more success than most of his contemporaries here.
The Saints have a potent pass rush, and an improving secondary (although Eli Apple may be out) although there are enough playmakers in the Vikings offense including Stefon Diggs & Adam Thielen to go down swinging, and Minnesota Kirk Cousins has been quietly going about his business this season, despite his many detractors. Expect a shoot-out.
Pick: Pick over 49.5 total points (10/11)
LONGSHOT
Tennessee Titans @ New England Patriots, Sunday Jan 5, 01:15
New England welcome the Tennessee Titans, who breeze into Foxboro with a red hot offense averaging 33 points per game over the last seven weeks, revitalised by QB Ryan Tannehill, an elite running back in Derrick Henry and a rookie wide receiver in AJ Brown who’s snagged over 1000 yards, with eight touchdowns.
This is in stark contrast to the Patriots offense which has been underwhelming for much of the season. The early loss of fullback James Develin has impacted their ground game, though in recent weeks they’ve flipped Elandon Roberts, a linebacker by trade, to the fullback role, with some success.
The receiving core 42-year-old Tom Brady has at his disposal is underwhelming – not entirely because of a lack of talent – but because they haven’t built a rhythm with their quarterback that he so insists on, and there’s no Rob Gronkowski these days to get them out of jail. He’s been leaning a lot on Julian Edelman, who comes into the game with injury concerns, and there’s a very real chance that this incarnation of the Patriots may be out of time.
It’s a brave move to back against Belichick and co in the playoffs, particularly at home but this matchup has echoes of the last time New England was in the Wild Card round, in 2009, losing 33-14 to Baltimore. I don’t think it’ll be that one sided, but as a longshot pick, the Titans on the road is worth a look.
Pick: Titans to win – money line (37/20)
