THERE'S no doubt the biggest clash of Week 6 in the NFL is the Pittsburgh Steelers' and Cleveland Browns' first meeting since Myles Garrett whacked Mason Rudolph over the head with his own helmet last season. Both teams also happen to have started the 2020 season in fine fettle so this one promises to be special. Resident NFL expert Nat Coombs has given that fixture the treatment this week, along with Eagles vs Ravens, and Bills vs Chiefs. Enjoy!
Philadelphia Eagles Balitmore Ravens
Sunday October 18, 18:00 GMT
Carson Wentz, the Philly quarterback, was terrorised by Pittsburgh last week, sacked five times, with 11 QB hits. The Steelers blitz more than any other team in the NFL. In second spot? The Ravens, who picked up seven sacks of their own last week against the Bengals, will, to borrow from the great Chuck D, bring the noise once again.
Philly have allowed 19 sacks in their first five games, ranking them 30th in the NFL. So unless something radical changes, expect Baltimore to dominate in the trenches, especially if Lane Johnson is injured again.
This projected dominance up front from Baltimore is the primary reason I’m sceptical that the Eagles can keep this close. Wentz has thrown nine picks this season, working with a banged up receiving corp though both DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffrey could return Sunday. Travis Fulgam emerged last week with a monster game, but it’s unclear if he’s going to capitalise on this and emerge as a consistent threat. Miles Sanders is an impressive RB, and realistically the Eagles’ biggest threat though the Ravens’ run D is solid.
Baltimore shouldn’t find it complex to put up points on, particularly if either of the Eagles starting corners Darius Slay (concussion) or Avonte Maddox (ankle) are ruled out. Philly has given up the sixth most TD passed in the NFL this season. They’re also third in rushing yards and rank first overall in yards per carry. The Eagles can bring a pass rush of their own, but MVP Lamar Jackson is as evasive as they come. Comfortable win for Baltimore, and even though the line is over that key number of 7, I’m taking the Ravens – 7.5.
Match odds: Eagles (29/10) Ravens (2/7)
Handicap: Eagles +8 (10/11) Ravens -8 (10/11)
Total points: Over 47.5 (10/11) Under 47.5 (10/11)
Tip: Ravens – 7.5 (17/20)
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Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs
Monday October 19, 22:00 GMT
The exhilarating Kansas City offense just got even stronger with the acquisition of Le’Veon Bell who’s time in New York was hugely disappointing, but this was more a bad marriage than Bell regressing, and there’s every chance he’ll resemble the elite RB he did in Pittsburgh now he’s a Chief. He won’t feature against the Bills on Monday Night – a team also in the hunt for his services – but Andy Reid is looking for a bounce back performance from his team after an indifferent display against Las Vegas, and should have most of his starters to play with, though former Bill WR Sammy Watkins has had limited practice during the week and is most likely out of the game.
It’s a tough, well-organised defense that he’s up against, despite the capitulation against Tennessee, although Mahomes will fancy his chances against a pass D that’s given up 100+ passer ratings for opposing QBs in its last four games and has given up 10 passing TDs and counting. Despite the defeat to Vegas, Mahomes still put up 30 points and had a blazing deep ball TD to Tyreek Hill scratched off for an offensive hold, so their underwhelming performance is relative. The Bills could be without starting corner Tre’Davious White too, which would be a huge blow, given his ability in man coverage.
Defensively though, they were exploited by a smart Jon Gruden gameplan, and the Bills clearly have enough in their arsenal to threaten. So there will be points. Buffalo’s big decision is whether to lean more on their ground game after Josh Allen’s lacklustre display against the Titans, or back their young QB to return to the form he’s shown for much of the season.
KC can be run on, and the importance of controlling the clock and keeping Mahomes and co off the field means it’s likely they’ll dial up Devin Singeltary and co more than they have in other games this season, but for Buffalo to keep in this, Allen will have to take his shots.
As per PFF Derek Carr completed four passes 20 or more yards downfield for 219 yards and two touchdowns in Vegas’ win last week. I think Allen lands a few, but not enough, and the shortened week for Buffalo will have some bearing also. Chiefs cover.
Match odds: Bills (19/10) Chiefs (4/9)
Handicap: Bills +4 (19/20) Chiefs -4 (17/20)
Total points: Over 57.5 (10/11) Under 57.5 (10/11)
Tip: Chiefs -4 (17/20)
4-0 for the first time since 1979. @Steelers | #HereWeGo pic.twitter.com/EeLEexD0ql
— NFL (@NFL) October 12, 2020
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns
Sunday October 18, 18:00 GMT
The AFC North is fast turning into the most competitive in the NFL and one we discussed on my ESPN podcast this week as a division realistically delivering three playoff teams, and two of those contenders square off in one of the games of Week 6. The 4-1 Cleveland Browns have been redefined under new head coach Kevin Stefanski who’s developed talented but errant quarterback Baker Mayfield into a more composed figure, letting those around him do the heavy lifting.
And what a collection of offensive talent it is – Odell Beckham, Jarvis Landry, Kareem Hunt and Austin Hooper the headline acts (with RB Nick Chubb injured), supported by one of the strongest offensive lines in football, and backed by a playmaking defense that boasts Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward, and leads the NFL with 12 takeaways.
The Steelers are equally balanced, a refreshed Ben Roethlisberger firing bullets to a similarly talented receiving corp, and a pass rush that terrorised Carson Wentz last week, and will be an equal match for the Browns O-Line. The calibre of the respective defenses leaves the line at the lower end of the 50s, which in the high-scoring 2020 NFL season seems conservative and I like the over 51 here, alongside Cleveland’s team total (over 23.5).
Match odds: Steelers (1/2) Browns (7/4)
Handicap: Steelers -4 (10/11) Browns +4 (10/11)
Total points: Over 51 (23/25) Under 51 (22/25)
Tip: Over 51 total points (23/25), Cleveland Browns over 23.5 points (23/25)
Treble odds: Ravens – 7.5 (17/20), Chiefs -4 (17/20), Steelers/ Browns – Over 51 total points (23/25) – 11/2
Check out the Nat Coombs Show podcast on ESPN right here.
