WEEK Four of the NFL 2020 is upon us and if we can get a game half as thrilling as the Packers v Saints clash in Week 3, there are plenty of reasons to be excited about this weekend's match-ups. With several teams already digging deep into their reserves as the injuries mount out, and plenty of upsets already in the book, value is out there if you can spot it. Here to help you decide is NFL braodcaster and journalist, Nat Coombs.
Miami Dolphins – Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, 4th October, 18:00 (GMT)
Is this going to be another game that Seattle QB Russell Wilson lights it up in his record-breaking start to the season? Or is there a chance this is a trap game, given Fitzmagic seems to be back in business in Miami, courtesy of Miami’s veteran QB Ryan Fitzpatrick?
Wilson threw five touchdown passes last week against Dallas and it would have been 6 if receiver DK Metcalf hadn’t got his swagger balance all wrong and allowed himself to get robbed whilst cruising into the endzone, not paying attention. It was the second consecutive week Wilson thrown for 5 TD’s and he’s set a new NFL record too, for the most TD passes in the first 3 weeks of the season (14) beating the record previously held by Patrick Mahomes. FYI The rest of the NFC West has 14 touchdown passes combined.
It’s fascinating to see how Seattle have shifted their offense this year. In 2019, they had a 48/52% run/pass ratio, making them top 5 run over pass team. In 2018, they were the Number 1 team in rushing ratio (55.6%). So far this season? 44% run to 56% pass. The devastating tandem of Tyler Lockett & DK Metcalf are a big part of this, and the injury to RB Chris Carson could well mean we’ll see more of the same against Miami.
Miami’s star WR Davante Parker’s hamstring will have had a week’s worth of rest, and stats suggest that Seattle can be passed on, ranking 32nd in the NFL in passing yards given up but much of that is down to yards conceded because teams are chasing them. Jamal Adams is likely to be out too for Seattle, but that won’t be enough to change the dynamic too much, and I think it’s another comfortable Seattle win. PICK – Seahawks -6.5
Match odds: Dolphins (9/4) Seattle (4/11)
Handicap: Dolphins -6 (10/11) Seattle +6 (10/11)
Total points: Over 49.5 (10/11) Under 49.5 (10/11)
Are 44 and 53 the same person? @MiamiDolphins pic.twitter.com/RVXm2kUqsE
— The Checkdown (@thecheckdown) September 25, 2020
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday, 4th October, 18:00 (GMT)
I’m riding the Bucs once again this week, having picked them successfully both against the spread and taking their team total last time out. We know all about this offense led by Tom Brady – a one-two punch in the backfield with Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette, Gronk stepping up for the first time, and the receiving tag team of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, all capable of big plays. But their defense is looking strong also. PFF rank them as first in the NFL in expected points allowed per. They have also clocked up 12 sacks, (ranking them 3rd) and a 56.3% pass rush win rate (2nd in the NFL).
It’s rookie QB Justin Herbert that will most likely face be facing the dangerous pass rush and despite Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen and Hunter Henry, I don’t think he’ll be able to move the offense enough in light of the pressure to keep up with the Bucs. The Chargers D boast some big game players but three are on IR – Derwin James, Melvin Ingram and Chris Harris are all out. PICK – TAMPA BAY – over 25.5 points
Match odds: Buccs (8/25) Chargers (27/10)
Handicap: Buccs -6 (10/11) Chargers +6 (9/10)
Total points: Over 43 (10/11) Under 43 (10/11)
Washington Football Team – Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, 4th October, 18:00 (GMT)
The Ravens got their nose bloodied by Kansas City on Monday Night Football but they’ll come back with a vengeance on Sunday against a Washington team who square off against Lamar Jackson without rookie superstar Chase Young and Matthew Ioannidis, which dilutes its hitherto effective pass rush.
Washington have an offense spluttering under second year QB Dwayne Haskins, who threw 3 picks against Cleveland last week and Baltimore’s D has been solid outside of the Chiefs loss. It’s a big number to cover, but I think Baltimore do it with ease as the Lamar Show gets back on air. PICK – BALTIMORE -13
Match odds: Washington (15/2) Ravens (1/10)
Handicap: Washington +13.5 (19/20) Ravens -13.5 (17/20)
Total points: Over 45.5 (10/11) Under 45.5 (10/11)
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