CLEVELAND Browns kicked off Week 11 with a comfortable win over the Steelers in a match that will surely have severe repurcussions for Miles Garrett. As for the other 13 clashes, NFL Nat Coombs is on hand to run the rule over the card, and offer you his three best picks. Bucs/ Saints, Chargers/ Falcons, Chargers/ Chiefs – all covered below.
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LOCK
The New Orleans Saints were double digit favourites last weekend, but ended up on the wrong end of one of the biggest shocks of the season, when the struggling Atlanta Falcons handed them their heaviest defeat of the year, a 17-point loss. Atlanta stopped Drew Brees and his usually potent offense scoring a TD, and limited them to a single digit points total at home, virtually unheard of in the Sean Payton era.
Expect a very different story this time out, and the Saints to come out swinging against a Tampa Bay side that isn’t a credible playoff contender but is inherently watchable given its propensity to both score points (averaging 28.9, third in the NFL) and concede points, the opposition average 31 points per game, putting the Bucs dead last in the league – or first, depending on which way you cut it.
Jameis Winston is a Top 5 QB in passing yards, with Chris Godwin and Mike Evans two of the best receivers in the business, so they’ll put up points again, but he gives the ball away regularly, to add further points scoring jeopardy. It’s a high line, and it’ll be met.
Pick: Over 49 points (10/11)
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PUNT
The Panthers at 5-4 are still very much in the playoff hunt, which seems extraordinary when you consider they’ve had an untested back up QB (Kyle Allen) leading them for most of the season, but less surprising when their offense boasts Christian McCaffrey, who already has 14TDs this season which on his own is as many as the entire Cincinnati Bengals have managed and more than both the Dolphins and the Redksins.
Atlanta’s defense was mightily impressive against the Saints, but did they shut down the running game or did New Orleans deviate away from it too soon? Either way, keeping MVP contender McCaffrey in check is an altogether different proposition. Offensively the Falcons they’re still a wildly erratic bunch – Matty “Ice” Ryan oddly reckless with the ball, and this Panthers D is a playmaking, forcing turnovers, and it’s a unit likely to be without RB Devonta Freeman and TE Austin Hooper, and with Mo Sanu recently shipped out to the Patriots, I don’t think they’ll have enough on the road in Carolina.
Pick: Panthers -4 (10/13)
LONGSHOT
The Mexico City factor – this is an International Series game – can’t be discounted to disrupt the status quo, but assuming that the Chiefs acclimatise, they should be too strong for an enigmatic Chargers side. Sure, they suffered a disappointing loss last week against Tennessee but the game should have been put to bed, before their Field Goal unit melted down not once, but twice in the final stages of the game, and despite the 6 points missed, they still put up 32 against a spirited Titans D. QB Patrick Mahomes looked formidable as ever coming back from injury throwing for 3 TDs and 446 yards.
Melvin Gordon had his best game for LA against the Raiders after his prolonged absence (over 100 yards and a TD) and this Kansas City side does have fallibility against the run as Derrick Henry exploited so well last weekend. The Chargers do take a lot of teams to the wire, so the extra half point is a concern, but I still think the reigning MVP drives his team to another win, as they vie for a bye week in the playoffs.
Pick: Chiefs -3 (3/4)
