WEEK 10 of the 2020 NFL season is upon us and it will begin with a bang as the 6-2 Tennessee Titans take on the 5-3 Indianapolis Colts this Friday. We begin however on Sunday with Carolina and Tampa Bay's match-up where NFL expert Nat Coombs encourages punters to take advantage of recency bias. Next up, it's another Sunday fixture as the Dolphins and Chargers clash gets the treatment, and finally we cover the penultimate game of the weekend as the Patriots and Ravens square off on Monday.
 

Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sunday November 15, 18:00 GMT
 

Sean Payton and his New Orleans Saints team celebrated in style in the locker room after their dominating Sunday Night Football win over Tampa Bay, cutting some serious dance moves in the process. It was a comprehensive win for a team that has been written off, certainly going into that encounter (NB Hope you took my Saints + points pick last week). I backed the over also, which seemed a cert once Brees and co were rolling, but Tampa’s offense mustered a solitary three points in their worst outing of the season. Guess you can’t win ‘em all!

Given Carolina’s effective performance against the champs – coming within a field goal of beating the Chiefs – the line here has dropped, recency bias in full effect, but I expect Tom Brady and co to get back in business this week. The Bucs moved away from the run against New Orleans – just eight rushing yards in total – which aside from making them one dimensional, relying solely on Brady’s arm also removed the play-action from that passing attack, and they looked uncharacteristically sluggish.

They’ll surely look to establish Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette more against the Panthers, who don’t boast a particularly stout Run-D. The Bucs have added Antonio Brown (who had three catches for 31 against NO) to an already impressive receiving corp that should be fully fit for the game – injury affecting them for much of this season and look to a bounce back gameplan from Arians and Brady here too.

Carolina’s future looks bright under new head coach Matt Rhule and young offensive co-ordinator Joe Brady, but the triumphant return of superstar Christian McCaffrey (151 yards, two TDs vs Kansas City) may be short-lived, with NFL Network reporting his status as extremely doubtful for the game. Mike Davis has been an able deputy, but with Carolina missing the x-factor and Tom Brady smarting after a prime-time humiliation, and a Bucs D that’s still one of the strongest in the league despite their shortcomings last time out, look at Tampa Bay to cover.

Match odds: Panthers (15/8) Buccaneers (4/9)
Handicap: Panthers +4.5 (10/11) Buccaneers -4.5 (10/11)
Total points: Over 50.5 (10/11) Under 50.5 (10/11)
Tip: Buccaneers -4.5 (10/11)

Miami Dolphins vs Los Angeles Chargers

Sunday November 15, 21:25 GMT
 

Tua Tungavailoa rebounded from a forgettable debut as Miami’s starter, reminding us against the Cardinals why there’s so much hype around him, helping the Fins edge a thriller against Arizona. The southpaw made mistakes, but crucially demonstrated composure, and has that escape-ability under duress, with one deft move, that likens him to some of the very best QBs in the game right now, including Patrick Mahomes and  Deshaun Watson.

He’s got a decent cast around him, particularly in number one receiver Davante Parker, and TE Mike Gesicki although leading RB Myles Gaskin is currently out. There’s the added edge of teams not having much recent tape on him, underpinned by adjustments needed when facing a left-handed QB, which makes me feel we’ll see more of the same from Tua once again.

LA’s own rookie QB Justin Herbert has been one of the success stories of the season, further ahead in his pro career trajectory despite going a pick lower than Tua in the 2020 draft. He’s already fast acclimatising to life in the NFL – and life as a Charger, complete with heart-breaking defeats – and his range and dynamism comfortably offset the inevitable mistakes and questionable decisions any rookie gunslinger makes.

He’s got a big arm, and isn’t afraid to use it, and I expect to have more success against Miami this weekend, even up against with the impressive corner pairing of Xavien Howard and Byron Jones, because he’ll roll the dice, and has enough zip and depth to draw flags and keep drives alive. Always worth a check on the weather in Florida, but assuming it’s the balmy sunshine currently projected, this could be a shootout, and in the high scoring 2020 season, seems a total with a lot value on the over.

Match odds: Dolphins (4/6) Chargers (5/4)
Handicap: Dolphins -2.5 (17/20) Chargers +2.5 (19/20)
Total points: Over 48.5 (10/11) Under 48.5 (10/11)
Tip: Over 48.5 total points (10/11)

For all NFL Week 10 betting markets, click here

New England Patriots vs Baltimore Ravens

Monday November 16, 01:20 GMT
 

Baltimore rallied in the face of adversity last week, bouncing back from a defeat to the Steelers with a defense hit by Covid-19, with a number of key players including star corner Marlon Humphrey forced to sit out against playoff contending Indy, and Calais Campbell leaving the game injured early on.

The Ravens D stifled the Colts, nevertheless, holding Philip Rivers, who was missing his star receiver TY Hilton, to just 10 points. Offensively, it was far from a fluent performance, but much of that was down to a poor first half from Lamar – who was markedly improved in the third and fourth quarters, and a running game that just couldn’t get going, but should see more success against a Patriots defense that is giving up 131 YPG on the ground.

The Ravens’ injury issues defensively continue with corner Khalil Dorsey injury his shoulder in the Colts win and Campbell expected to be out for a few weeks. They’ve picked up 37-year old Tramon Williams to bolster the secondary and expect Humphrey to return. The disruption at cornerback bodes well for New England and Cam Newton, who have been erratic for much of the season in the air, an inconsistency borne out of lack of quality with the weapons around the QB, and also the impact of Covid-19, taking Newton out for a few weeks, when he was starting to find rhythm.

They’ve focused on a ground attack as a result, with reasonable success, although the Ravens are a tougher proposition than many in this area. The line is low for clear reasons, and but I think there’s cause for optimism that Cam Newton will cause some problems and land a few blows, and that the Ravens ground game will move, which will open up opportunities for Lamar to exploit a lacklustre Patriots D.

Match odds: Patriots (5/2) Ravens (1/3)
Handicap: Patriots +7 (10/11) Ravens -7 (10/11)
Total points: Over 44 (10/11) Under 44 (10/11)
Tips: Over 43.5 (5/6)

Treble odds
 

Buccaneers -4.5 (10/11), Over 48.5 total points (10/11), Over 43.5 (5/6) – 23/4

Check out the Nat Coombs Show podcast on ESPN right here.