THE New England Patriots have been sluggish starters in most recent seasons of the Belichick era – they lost two of their first three last season, and two of their first four the year before – but not this time. At 4-0, they’re already looking formidable and it’s their defense that’s the standout unit, ranking number one in a range of categories including interceptions, sacks, total yards allowed, yards per play and (opponent) passer rating. Which doesn’t bode well for the Washington Redskins, whose hapless start to the season sees them winless, with rookie QB (Dwayne Haskins) thrown into a very deep end last weekend against the Giants.
BANKER
The Redskins are winless, banged up, and looking like they’re battling Miami for the number one overall draft pick. Jay Gruden, their head coach, on the hottest of seats right now, has refused to name a starting QB for Sunday at the time of writing – it could be Haskins, it could be a returning Case Keenum, or the veteran back-up Colt McCoy. It won’t matter. None are a match for this Pats D.
To make life even harder for whoever starts, further injuries have hit the Redskins offense this week, with news that veteran tight end Vernon Davis is in concussion protocol, along with fellow Tight End Jordan Reed.
Tom Brady went STUPID today
18/39
150 Yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT
45.9 QBR
Bailed out by the defense for the 195th time in his career
Talk! pic.twitter.com/gZKdD6FKI9
— Bryce (@ItsBrizz) September 29, 2019
15 points is a big spread but the Patriots covered comfortably against Miami (43-0) blew the Steelers away by 30 points, and beat the Jets by 16 – and would have covered the even higher spread there but for a junk time pick six from back up QB Jarrett Stidham, in for a rested Tom Brady once the game was won.
Last week against Buffalo was expectedly hard fought, and they’re missing FB James Develin which affects their running game – though Washington ranks 29th against the run which levels that issue out somewhat (Buffalo is a Top 8 unit in comparison).
Tom Brady had a poor game against the Bills, though I expect him to be given plenty of time by his defense on the field to correct that, and bring the heat, and he’ll want a statement performance to shut the haters up who inevitably piled in suggesting he’s coming to the end of the road. Yawn. New England wins comfortably. NEW ENGLAND (-15)
PUNT
Monday Night Football offers value in the over/under market – 46.5 – as the Cleveland Browns, fresh off their rampaging against the Ravens take on a rested 49’ers coming off a bye week. Cleveland are flawed but have a range of big hitting weapons at the disposal of Baker Mayfield their QB, and they got it done against Baltimore despite Odell Beckham having a quiet game, underlining the offensive riches within the roster. Jarvis Landry, his receiving partner in crime stepped up for a huge game last week – though keep an eye on his status for Monday, due to a concussion he sustained – and RB Nick Chubb tore it up, with 3 TD’s including an 88 yarder.
To.
The.
House.@NickChubb21, everybody. pic.twitter.com/RCeJGdSsaX— Cleveland Browns (@Browns) September 29, 2019
San Francisco, unbeaten on 3-0, have averaged 32 points per game so far (3rd in the NFL) despite QB Jimmy Garoppolo having a mixed start to the season. They’re missing veteran Joe Staley on the O Line, which may cause problems, but I think both offenses get enough going to meet this total. Take the OVER 46.5
LONGSHOT
London games are often to be avoided because, by their very nature, they are such an unorthodox environment, and indeed preparation, for both teams, with no genuine home field advantage. That said, I think this plays very much into the Raiders hands this weekend. They’ve been in the UK since Monday – the Bears don’t arrive till Friday – and they’ve been on the road for the last two weeks, given their challenging start to the season, so are steeled for the trip and in travelling mode. This Bears defense is terrific, and a tough to break down for even the very best of offenses, which Oakland certainly aren’t, but they do have promising pieces including Darren Waller at Tight End, Josh Jacobs at RB and a QB in Derek Carr that’s capable of a big game. Plus, the Bears issues at QB – with backup Chase Daniel starting – means this could be tight, so the 5.5 points Oakland are getting seems tempting, albeit a longshot. Pick: OAK + 5.5
