Affter 20 rounds of the EuroLeague’s regular season, one team is a win away at most from becoming the first official qualifier for the playoffs.
With a table-topping 18-2 record, victory at B Munich on Thursday would see Zeljko Obradovic's men secure their place in the next stage with two months of the regular season still intact.
They are 1.33 favourites for the result required. In compelling form. Yet the hosts may see a sliver of hope to snatch an upset at the odds of 3.35. Because Fener will travel without their totem Jan Vesely, a void which shifts the dynamic, if not on its head then certainly off its foundations.
Proud of this team. Keep the home court winning streak going #fenerbahce pic.twitter.com/Xyt0FcV3CA
— Jan Vesely (@JanVesely24) January 10, 2019
The ex-NBA centre will miss the next 5-6 weeks – at least four European games – following knee surgery, a savage blow. The Czech star is averaging a team-high 14.8 points and 5.6 rebounds per game, leading the EuroLeague in player rating and picking up December’s monthly MVP award.
All season, he has been massively consistent, scoring at least 10 points in 12 of his last 13 EuroLeague appearances. Remarkably for a centre, he is also pinching a league-best 1.7 steals per game.
Still, he remains ambivalent about a second stint in the NBA after the first imploded unkindly. In Europe, Vesely reigns, which is why his absence gives Bayern some kind of shot at stealing a priceless triumph.
Badly needed too. The German giants, on the playoff bubble in seventh spot. have a 10-10 record and with three of the teams who are currently tied with 9-11 marks playing each other this week, the pressure is on.
Great win yesterday ! 18-2 in @EuroLeague #fenerbahce #istanbul pic.twitter.com/OoEpXlUaTK
— Joffrey Lauvergne (@1JOLOLO) January 25, 2019
But Bayern can point to its home form, winning four of the last five games in the Audi Dome, and averaging 82.09 points on its own floor while conceding exactly two fewer, much better than a -5 differential on their travels.
Fener score seven points less on the road than on their own floor and with Vesely out, they will surely need more from Joffrey Lauvergne who is notching 8.3 points per night in Europe.
The wily Obradovic is a master of shuffling line-ups and managed to flourish with his bench unit pushed into a starting role last month against Zalgiris in an unexpected shuffling off the pack.
But Bayern have enough firepower to capitalise if the leaders stutter and there’s some merit in looking over 157.5 total points at 1.91. As the playoff race enters its final stages, every result matters and Vesely’s forfeit is an intriguing twist.
Best bet: Take Bayern Munich at +5.5 against Fenerbahce
Road examination for Buducnost
From looking dead and buried, Buducnost has hauled itself away from the bottom of the standings with three consecutive victories, spearheaded by the arrival of Norris Cole and the blitzing of 19-year old centre Goga Bitadze who is now averaging 14.7 points, 7.3 rebounds and 3.2 blocks per game.
During their streak, they have conceded just 68 points per game, holding R Madrid's league-leading offense to just 60 points.
All hope is not lost.
1/ Finished up the Buducnost @ Olimpija from 1/28 and I have some thoughts
Goga (video below showing positives):
– Flashed nice PnR defense once, but more often it was usual PnR def
– Beautiful drive to rim from 3 w/a little shake
– 2 nice finishes through contact pic.twitter.com/q306CaVvpM— Spencer (@frontofficeeye) January 29, 2019
However, those triumphs all came in Podgorica. A proper examination of their improvements arrives on Friday when they venture to CSKA Moscow.
The Russians will want revenge following the stunning 93-92 reverse two months ago when a 17-point cushion evaporated.
And the last time CSKA lost more than one EuroLeague home game in the same season was in 2012-13.
Unsurprisingly, they are 1.07 for the win. But look at Buducnost at +10 for good value or go under a total of 163.5 points, available at 1.91.
