THE final day of the July Festival at Newmarket features the Group 1 My Pension Expert July Cup and the very competitive Bunbury Cup.
This is a very busy Saturday with racing at York, Ascot and Chester too.
Enjoy whether at a racecourse or watching #athome on ITV Racing and Racing TV.
Cheers
The Wine Tipster
1:45 Ascot – AIR Services Heritage Handicap (5f)
Brave Nation has really found his form now and was very game in scoring by the minimum margin at Doncaster last week, running on in storming fashion once the gap came and sticking his head down on the line at the right time. He couldn’t be given too harsh a penalty for that, being raised just 3lb, and that still leaves him well below the marks he was running off back in 2023.
The question is the ground, as Brave Nation has run on good or quicker, though he might act on slower, however with a dry forecast on Ascot from Friday to Saturday evening conditions should be fine.
Brave Nation is an inform horse that acts on the track, and his chance is clear enough to see.
2.50 Newmarket – Handicap (1m)
Treasure Time won on the July course last month on good to firm and the drying ground can only work in his favour for this type who’s clearly improving. Stepping up to a mile will suit and the 4lb rise for his success last time was fair so expect more progression here.
3:10 York – Heritage Handicap (1m 2½f)
Paradias came from the back of the field at Epsom to finish second to Bolster, with the Haunted Dream who reopposes back in fourth. The favourite is Haunted Dream, who was considered unlucky and is almost half the price of Paradis, which seems hard to fathom. There’s little between them at the weights today and Paradias does have some York form to call upon, having been a close fifth in the big handicap there last year. He has a nice draw in stall 7 to work from and looks the value call given the way he was finishing at Epsom on his first start of 2024.
4:00 Newmarket – Bunbury Cup Handicap (7f)
Carrytheone (nap) should take a lot of beating in the Bunbury Cup as he’s favourite for good reason,
He caught the eye with a fast-finishing third over this trip in the Sandringham Handicap (the key race to rewatch for the Bunbury Cup) at Royal Ascot, and arguably would have been second had he got a run sooner, but Pat Dobbs had to sit and suffer at the back of the field and wait for a gap to come up the rail. He flew home once he got it, and take out easy winner Royal Oak, who was clearly well in front of his mark, and he’s been beaten a very unlucky length in third behind the second Billyjoh.
This uphill climb for the line will suit him well, having won at the Rowley the time before, and the booking of Ryan Moore is a real bonus for his supporters.
Percy’s Lad is a real seven furlong specialist, who won at Chester in May and ran a good race when eleventh to English Oak in the Buckingham Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot when beating Gorak, the only other runner on the unfavoured far rail. He has strong each way claims and looks overpriced.
4:35 Newmarket – My Pension Expert July Cup Stakes Group 1 (6f)
Vandeek has four lengths to find with Inisherin on their Sandy Lane form from earlier in the season but there are good reasons for thinking that the form can be reversed here.
Inisherin was going there the fitter horse of the two after his sixth in the 2000 Guineas the time before, whereas Vandeek, giving Inisherin 3lb that day, was having his first start of the season, and the paddock watchers suggested he was badly in need of the run. That’s how he shaped in the race too, looking ring-rusty, and the way he faded late, when he was always so strong at the finish last year, suggested he’d come on plenty.
There’s no doubting Inisherin has improved since then, winning the Commonwealth Cup in great style, but Vandeek was one of the champions of last season and hasn’t been given the chance to show his form. The Crisfords are in great form at present, the ground should be fine, and it’s worth remembering how strong he was at the finish in the Middle Park last year.
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