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Steve Jones: Cheltenham Banker or Cheltenham Blowout?

Steve Jones |

March 10, 2021

EVERYONE loves a Cheltenham banker, a horse you cannot see being beaten at any price.

We all remember the monster gambles and on-course plunges that have lifted the roofs off stands, figuratively, and hats off heads, more literally.

The roar of the crowd will be missing this year but it won’t stop the age-old arguments over the Festival shorties – are they banker bets or dodgy blowouts?

Here’s my views on the hottest Cheltenham prospects.

 

Appreciate It (Supreme Novices’ Hurdle) – 11/8

Ever since Noah started building his arc with a view to sailing into the betting ring for the Supreme, there has been an Irish banker in the Festival’s opening contest.

Horses with flawless credentials have had punters piling in but those same punters are often found trying to borrow a few quid to back their Arkle fancies.

Appreciate It has looked exceptional in winning all three of his hurdles starts since finishing second in the Champion Bumper at last year’s Festival.

He deserves his place at the head of the betting but a record of just two winning favourites – one of them a joint-favourite – in the last 16 years shows that the market for the Supreme is not a great guide.

Throw in plenty of credible opposition and trainer Willie Mullins’ record of four beaten favourites in the last five years, it’s clear Appreciate It is far from a safe way to start the annual battle with the bookies.

Verdict: BLOWOUT

 

Shishkin (Arkle Trophy) – 5/6

Backers of short ‘uns don’t have to wait long for the next hot favourite as Shishkin could go off a shade of odds-on in the Arkle.

Nicky Henderson’s star is following the same path as his illustrious stablemate Altior in taking in the Festival’s two-mile championship novices’ chase 12 months after winning the Supreme.

Everything he has done in three victories over fences suggests Henderson has another top-class chaser on his hands.

He should know better than anyone if he’s up to winning the Arkle having lifted the prize a record six times.

This year’s contest is shaping up to be one of the races of the Festival but Shishkin still looks the one to beat.

Verdict: BANKER

 

Honeysuckle (Champion Hurdle) – 9/4

Fans of the Unibet Champion Hurdle favourite might be excused for heading into the big race with the battle cry ‘show us the money, Honey’.

Henry de Bromhead’s Honey monster clearly has a lot going for her. She’s unbeaten in ten starts, was successful in the Mares’ Hurdle at last year’s Festival and she looked better than ever when thrashing Abacadabras to land the Irish Champion Hurdle for the second time last month.

Some will see her as the first-day banker but the drying ground combined with the two-mile distance might hand the advantage to the speedier contenders.

That makes her a risky proposition at the head of the Champion market.

Verdict: BLOWOUT

 

Concertista (David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle) – 11/10

Willie Mullins is going for his tenth win in the Mares’ Hurdle, an astonishing record considering the race was only introduced to the Festival in 2008.

Concertista is already a Festival winner having taken last year’s mares’ novices’ hurdle – 12 months after finishing runner-up in the same race.

That gives her a great profile going into this contest as Festival form is often crucial but I’ve no doubt that novice prize is weak by Cheltenham standards.

Given this will be her first run in a Grade 1 and the possible presence of Roksana, winner of this race two years ago, Concertista looks fairly skinny at this stage.

If the race cuts up any more she could even go off odds-on and that just doesn’t interest me.

Verdict: BLOWOUT

 

Monkfish (Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase) – 8/11

There have been a good few hot favourites beaten in this Grade 1 three-mile novices’ chase.

Most go into it having shown brilliance but this prize often goes to a battler. Monkfish ticks both boxes.

He won the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle at last year’s Festival and he has made an effortless switch to fences.

There were six odds-on favourites at last year’s Festival and five were beaten. That shows that betting these shorties are a risky proposition but Monkfish looks the exception, not the rule.

Verdict: BANKER

 

Chacun Pour Soi (Champion Chase) – 4/5

Last year’s Champion Chase lost much of its interest when Chacun Pour Soi was ruled out on the morning of the race.

Providing there are no late scares this time, the horse whose name translates as ‘every man for himself’ looks more than capable of standing up to this challenge. He’ll face a true champion in Altior but one that has questions to answer.

Chacun Pour Soi looks in the prime of life and he could easily blow this field apart.

Verdict: BANKER

 

Easysland (Cross Country Chase) – 11/10

This French raider scuppered the celebrations for Tiger Roll in last year’s Cross Country Chase.

The betting suggested the dual Grand National hero only had to turn up to record a fifth Cheltenham Festival success but he found Easysland far too hot to handle. David Cottin’s specialist bolted up by 17 lengths.

Although he was beaten over these fences in November that was a handicap when he had to give lumps of weight away. It’ll be level weights this time in a race when experience is key.

On his best form Easysland will be very hard to beat.

Verdict: BANKER

 

Kilcruit (Champion Bumper) – 6/4

The Champion Bumper is another race Willie Mullins has dominated.

His ten wins include two of the last three so Kilcruit has the right man doing the training.

The way this six-year-old destroyed his rivals at the Dublin Racing Festival ensured he would be Mullins’ number one hope for the Festival’s only flat race. That might not be as good as it sounds.

The Irish champion trainer often wins this race with a second, third or even fourth string. Appreciate It was beaten by stablemate Ferny Hollow 12 months ago and these inexperienced horses can often show drastically improved form given a strong pace to run at for the first time in their lives.

Kilcruit has shown all the signs of a champion but history suggests he’s not the Mullins banker he might appear.

Verdict: BLOWOUT

 

Envoi Allen (Marsh Chase) – 8/11

Much has been spoken and written about the rise and fall of Gordon Elliott.

One of the saddest aspects is the timing of his ban for the shocking picture that has dented racing’s reputation as he would have been going into the Festival with a host of big chances.

None bigger than Envoi Allen, who has been superbly handled to rattle off 11 wins without defeat including two Festival victories.

His jumping has been good since switching to fences and, just like his three runs this season, he has chased off much of the opposition in the Marsh Novices’ Chase.

It looks like Elliott’s substantial loss will be new trainer Henry de Bromhead’s gain as Envoi Allen looks head, shoulders and probably the vast majority of the rest of his body above his rivals.

Verdict: BANKER

 

Elimay (Mares’ Chase) – 13/8

Willie Mullins cant have believed his luck when a third mares’ race was added to the Festival roster.

He has dominated the two hurdles prizes and his Elimay will be a warm order for the first running of the Mares’ Chase.

She has won three of her four starts over fences and she warmed up for this with victory over two miles at Naas last month.

That’s the positive pointers but she is not the biggest of mares and her jumping has not been error free.

Her only previous visit to the Cheltenham saw her finish sixth in the 2019 Mares’ Hurdle. While she has clearly improved since then, there are enough reasons to take her on.

Verdict: BLOWOUT

 

Cheltenham Festival Betting (Non Runner, Money Back)

To view Unibet’s current odds and to bet on the Cheltenham Festival, click here

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