AS LONG as there are no last minute glitches the plan is for Threat to take his chance in the G1 Darley July Cup at Newmarket on Saturday. We were originally looking at the Prix Jean Prat (over seven furlongs) in France but the ground there is very soft at the moment and don’t really want to run him on that surface in what looks a hot little race. That’s not to say the July Cup is any easier but I just think the drop back to six furlongs might be just what he needs and he hasn’t got much to find with Golden Horde, and he’ll be favourite, so it makes sense to have a crack at this prize.

Threat has always been a very good horse and he ran a great race in the St James’s Palace Stakes  where he showed plenty of speed but didn’t quite get home on the ground and we’re forecast good weather at the weekend which will really suit him. He’s come out of Ascot in great shape, and might even come on for it a little bit as well. Oisin Murphy maintains the ride.

Five runners on day one of the July Festival as well as a couple at York and my thoughts on their chances are below:

THURSDAY – NEWMARKET

12:10 Maiden Fillies’

Teolodina (Ryan Moore)

She’s a sweet filly by Kodiak who has done everything we’ve asked of her at home and is ready for a run. She’ll definitely come on for it but this is a good starting point and I’m looking forward to seeing how she fares against what could be some very good opposition.

12:45 Handicap

Well Done Fox (Silvestre De Sousa)

This is obviously a big step down in grade and will be his first run in a handicap so I’m hopeful he can acquit himself well. I think he might need six furlongs nowadays and he’s the best horse in the race according to ratings. He’s in good form at home, will like the track and the quicker the ground the better.         

1:50 Listed

Mystery Power (Silvestre De Sousa)

He actually ran a nice race in the Jersey on his first start of the season when he would’ve badly needed it so that would’ve sharpened him up nicely and I think the step up to a mile will help too. He’s versatile ground wise and we’re going back to the scene of his biggest triumph in the G2 Superlative this time last year so I wouldn’t be writing him off just yet. 

Separate (Jim Crowley)

She was a very smart two-year-old and has always maintained a decent level of form but realistically she’ll probably struggle against some less exposed rivals and if she can finish in the money and gain some black type we’ll be happy.

3:35 Handicap

Lexington Dash (Thore Hammer Hansen)

He’s effectively 2lbs ‘well in’ because he is due to go up 8lbs following his win at Newmarket last weekend so we’re getting him out again before that takes effect and he arrives here in the form of his life. This is a typically competitive handicap but he deserves to take his chance and I still think there could be even more improvement in him.

YORK

1:30 Handicap

Mordred (Pat Dobbs)

He’s come back this season better than ever and is 1lb ‘well in’ at the weights following his second at Windsor last week which may not make much difference but it’s better than nothing so we’re having a crack at this prize and he copes with any ground. We’re going down marginally in trip but he’s not short of pace and will like the course

3:15 G2 Al Basti Equiworld Dante Stakes

Al Madhar (Dane O’Neill)

I was really pleased with his attitude at Newbury on his return, when he beat the re-opposing Encipher by a neck, as I’d left a little to work on fitness-wise so was delighted he was able to win first time out. This is a big step up in grade but we’ve been very patient with him and he’s rewarded us by winning both his races. The ground will be absolutely perfect and he’s already proven at the trip so I’m hopeful of a very bold show. He’s clearly very talented.

5:20 Handicap

Brian Epstein (Pat Dobbs)

He was drawn on the wrong side at Ascot last time but ended up finishing third in his group and the handicapper has taken no chances by whacking him up another 3lbs which is slightly frustrating, but he’s a strong travelling horse who has a decent race in him and we’ve freshened him up plenty so he arrives there in good shape and I wouldn’t rule him out by any means.

Billesdon Brook has been declared for the G1 Falmouth Stakes on Friday and we’ve got a nice two year old set to make his debut as well so be sure to check back here for all of the latest on their chances.

Richard