We’re currently running to a 29% win strike rate and the horses are performing well but we’re in the very unusual predicament that there has been hardly any rain and the temperature has been hot then cold, then mild again and it’s knocking some of our horses about a little bit so I’ve been unable to get as many out as I’d liked, including Birchdale last week and Brain Power in The New One Unibet Hurdle at Haydock tomorrow as they haven’t been quite right so I’ll have to do a re-think where they are both concerned. It’s a similar story with Angels Breath who I was hoping to run in the Rossington Main Hurdle but he isn’t quite 100% so we had to swap him around with Mister Fisher who now goes to Haydock instead. By and large what we have run have ran well and we had a good hard frost last night but we need three or four more of them to kill the germs. I think a lot of people are in the same boat, and at this time of year you are going to get this sort of thing but it’s still very frustrating nevertheless.
I was absolutely delighted with dear old Top Notch who showed a great attitude to win at Kempton after which I see his odds were almost halved with Unibet (to 10/1) for the Ryanair. I thought it was a very good performance, actually, and to do what he did in track record time, in January, is a feat in itself, even accounting for the quick ground so I’m very pleased. He was quite ill in the autumn after his flu jab and it’s been a long time getting him back but it does mean we have a relatively fresh horse so he’ll probably have another crack at the Ascot Chase and see if he can win it for a second year running before heading to Cheltenham which he was forced to miss last year.
Ok Corral took his chase record to two from two and looked very good at Warwick. The NH Chase has always been the long term plan which is why we got Derek O’Connor over to ride him. I thought his jumping was excellent and as long as we get a clear run with him, because his legs are like glass, he would have to be very competitive at Cheltenham. I’d like to get another run into him before the Festival but where that will be, I don’t know. Santini will be going for the Reynoldstown so we won’t be taking him on and I don’t want to go further than three miles whatever happens.
Runners at Ascot and Haydock on Saturday and my thoughts on their chances are below.
ASCOT
2:25 Handicap Hurdle
Colonial Dreams (Nico de Boinville)
He won over course and distance last March before following up at Market Rasen in a Novices’ Hurdle and I think good ground is the key to him. I thought he ran a good race on his return to action, but he will definitely have needed it as he travelled strongly before blowing up two out and the Handicapper has dropped him a few pounds too. That will have sharpened him up and I think he could be quite competitive in what looks a very suitable race for him.
3:00 Handicap Chase
Divine Spear (Nico de Boinville)
It’s been a long time in getting him back for various reasons, but he likes it around here and good ground is what he has to have. The ground was very quick at Cheltenham on his return and Nico said he just got outpaced and was feeling the surface coming down the hill. He’s had issues in the past and running down the hill if you’re off the bridle on fast ground at Cheltenham is a dangerous thing and can do plenty of damage so Nico, quite rightly, decided to pull him up. This will be slower ground and a little bit further which will help him so I’m hopeful of a more accomplished performance here.
3:35 G1 Clarence House Chase
Altior (Nico de Boinville)
There’s hardly anything else I can add that you don’t already know. Thankfully everything has gone absolutely fine since Kempton and this has always been the target. His jumping was excellent in the Unibet Desert Orchid Chase where some of it was absolutely breath-taking and we’ve done very little with him since. The ground will be absolutely fine and there should be a bit of pace on with Fox Norton in the field so we should get a decent race. He will have a break after this and we’ll freshen him up for the Champion Chase and then we can think about some other spring targets further down the line.
4:05 Novices’ Hurdle
Downtown Getaway (Nico de Boinville)
We’ve always held this horse in quite high regard and I thought he ran a good race on debut at Newbury last month when he made a mess of the third last but did well to recover and get himself back in the game. I’m not quite sure how strong the form is because Tidal Flow was well beaten at Warwick last Saturday but our horse is in great form and will have come on plenty for that first run. He’ll get further in time but this looks a perfect opportunity and I think he must have a great chance. Put it this way, I’m as happy with this horse as I was before Mister Fisher won at Kempton so let’s hope my confidence is justified.
HAYDOCK
2:05 G2 Novices’ Hurdle
Mister Fisher (James Bowen)
Everyone knows how much I adore this horse as he’s the most handsome individual you’ll ever see and is slowly but surely getting there. He bolted up in a Bumper at Kempton last March and then we shouldn’t have run him on atrocious ground at Aintree, but he’s come back this season a much stronger person and I was particularly impressed with his win over Christmas. I think he is a genuine two mile horse and the way he quickened up last time is testament to that. He has to carry a penalty for that success, but he won easily enough and hopefully it won’t be enough to stop him. I wouldn’t worry about the track and I’ve been very happy with him at home so as long as the ground stays on the quicker side I’m very hopeful he can continue on an upward trajectory. If he is going to be running in races like the Supreme he needs to be winning races like this.
3:15 Peter Marsh Handicap Chase
Valtor (Daryl Jacob)
NON RUNNER
I must admit I was extremely surprised with his Ascot win as he’s one of those nice horses that doesn’t show anything at home but he got into a lovely rhythm and took it up three out to come home an easy winner – probably a little too easy in all fairness as we didn’t do ourselves any favours because the Handicapper put him up 12lbs so this is a completely different ball game. He came over here with the Grand National in mind, and everybody knows that we have not won a National of any kind, therefore I hope this person can help perhaps help us get there. We could have found a Conditions race somewhere or kept to Handicap Company, as he’s halfway between the two, but this is a good prize and I suppose if he did win well he’s a possible Gold Cup contender and if he doesn’t he’ll come down the weights a bit which brings us back into the National so this is very much a fact finding mission. He knows how to jump as he’s been doing it since a two year old and is in good form so should run a big race.
TAUNTON
3.25 Novices’ Hurdle
Before Midnight (Aidan Coleman)
He’s been a little frustrating as we’ve missed a few opportunities with him but he ran a solid race last time and this small field should allow him to get into a rhythm. The aim is the EBF Final on the Saturday before Cheltenham and he needs to finish in the first four to quality, of which I’m hopeful he can do so. He’s not the biggest horse in the world but has enough talent to suggest he shouldn’t be far away in this.
