Newmarket
1.15pm
River Alwen
I thought he shaped pretty well for me when fourth in a decent race at Newbury on his return and the handicapper has dropped him 2lb for it. And that allows him to get into 0-95 off a mark of 96. He was probably a bit on the high side anyway, on the balance of his juvenile form, but he is a lightly-raced 3yo with a fair bit of upside.
3.00pm
Norma
She is a recent addition to the stable after being bought for 150,000 euros at the Araqana sales in December. She had some good form when with James Fanshawe in 2019 and probably at least ran up to that level when second at Deauville last July when trained in France, so she is an interesting prospect. She looks to need to improve a few pounds to be winning this, though.
3.40pm
Vadream
It may seem a bit of a strange thing to say given we have a well talked-up and strong favourite in Santa Barbara, but this has the look of an open and winnable Guineas, especially now that the form horse Pretty Gorgeous is out. They obviously think the world of the favourite but she has to be considered a fairly crazy price coming in here on the back of just a maiden victory, and one that hasn’t worked out that well. Nobody is going to be surprised if she wins this obviously, as she has the connections, the pedigree and the potential, but she has to go out and do it. A lot of these have to prove their stamina, and that applies to Sacred and Alcohol Free, winners of the 7f trials. My filly ran a huge race on just her second start when third to the latter in the Fred Darling and she only has a little over 2 lengths to make up with the Cheveley Park winner. That is obviously do-able and she was in good form when I sat on her at Charlie’s earlier in the week, but she does have her stamina to prove too, I guess. Maybe she will be more of a 6f/7f horse, but there is only one way to find out, and she did finish her race off well at Newbury. And her midfield draw in six is fine. Of the others I think Saffron Beach, second in the Nell Gywn and a likely stayer, could go well.
