Melbourne Cup, Flemington

Raymond Tusk 

We all know how difficult it is to win a Melbourne Cup – and this is probably as open as they come – but I genuinely think Raymond Tusk has a leading chance. He won his Group 2 over 1m4f in Italy last season and ran a great trial for this race when fourth in the Ebor, where he just couldn’t get to the leaders – between the 4f and 2f pole he had a wall of horses in front of him – and also met trouble late on, too. I think you have to mark up that run – and he was only beaten 2 lengths – and he really did feel in serious order when I rode him over 1m2f last Tuesday morning before flying to the Breeders’ Cup. He gets the 2m trip well,  the ground should be fine, and he has a very competitive racing weight. I suggested we give the Caulfield Cup a miss to arrive here a fresh horse – and I am not sure that track will have suited him, either – as he does seem to go well off a break. I really do like his chances of placing, and maybe better. I have ridden in this race  four times and this is probably the first time I have come here on a horse that isn't handicapped to the hilt, and every 1lb matters and counts in a race like this. And his chance isn't just based on that Ebor run., He was giving Dee Ex Bee 5lb when second to him in the Sagaro Stakes  and simply didn't stay in the Gold Cup. I'm very hopeful of a bold show if getting the breaks from his inside draw in what can be a lottery given the number of runners.