Matt Cooper takes a look at the state of play after 36 holes at Royal Troon.

There’s a lot going the way of Shane Lowry as the 152nd Open Championship heads into the weekend and the vibes are remarkably like the final major championship before lockdown. Remember 2019 at Royal Portrush? Of course you do. Rory McIlroy was the big story and missed the cut: ditto. The weather was bleak: ditto. Links savvy was an imperative: ditto. Lowry led at halfway: ditto.

First things first: there’s no doubt that the Irishman was on the right side of the draw. Playing late on Thursday and early Friday avoided the worst of the weather, particularly the consistently strong and blustery wind that almost all Friday PM starters referred to as “brutal”.

But make no mistake: Lowry has played brilliant golf to this point and is making many fine decisions. That all started with his preparation. Last year he opted to play the Scottish Open but it didn’t work out and he missed the cut in the Open. So he returned to his previous practice of heading home to Ireland where he relaxes and attunes his game to seaside golf while playing with friends.

He also undertook an early recce to Troon that is reminiscent of what Henrik Stenson did eight years ago. Then, the Swede recognised that major championship practice rounds can be tiring so he completed a couple of rounds two weeks ahead of time and stored his energy in the days before the championship itself. Yet another example of deja vu for Lowry.

All of this would count for little if he were to get bad breaks and respond badly to them. But Lowry has avoided self-inflicted mistakes and, when dealt misfortune, he has remained calm and collected.

Take the 11th hole of his second round. “I did the hard part,” he said. “I hit my drive where you could find it, which is obviously a hard thing to do on that hole and got a nice lie in the rough.”

Then he was distracted by a photographer moving as he was preparing to hit his approach to a green with out of bounds all down the right. “I lost my train of thought,” he admitted. “You’re so afraid of going right there that I just snagged the club and went left.” It disappeared into a gorse bush seven feet deep. Initially he dropped another ball, took a deep breath, and found the putting surface. He was happy to have a 20-foot putt for bogey. But things were not so simple.

The referee had asked if he wanted to look for the ball and he said no. But then a spectator found it. Lowry believed he was okay to play on with the second ball, the official declared otherwise, and he now had to drop his ball in a blind spot knowing it was almost impossible to avoid a double bogey. Still he remained calm. Still he made good decisions.

“That whole process of that 20 minutes or whatever it was, I feel like I did the right things,” he said. “We didn’t rush it. I was happy enough leaving there with a six. It wasn’t a disaster. I was still leading the tournament.”

After 54 holes he leads by two from the surprise package of the week, England’s Dan Brown and Justin Rose who was brilliant in the worst of the weather. Scottie Scheffler, Jason Day, Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay are all under-par. Lowry was asked if the chasers should be worried about his form and he laughed. “I’m not sure Scottie is too worried about anyone with the form he’s in,” Lowry said.

The numbers

As long as the weather plays along, it is possible for a winner to emerge from way back in the Open. Back in 2001 David Duval was T35 and seven back at this stage while Francesco Molinari in 2018 was T29 and six back. Of the last 30 winners there are the only two winners who weren’t T13 or better at this stage, however.

Looking ahead, 28 of the last 30 winners were tied sixth or better after 54 holes, The exceptions were Paul Lawrie at Carnoustie in 1999 who was T14 and Phil Mickelson at Muirfield in 2013 who was T9.

There have been nine Opens at Troon and every single winner so far was tied seventh or better on the leaderboard at this stage. Eight were within four blows of the lead while Tom Watson in 1982 was seven back but in a share of fifth. That year Bobby Clampett had bounded five shots clear after 36 holes and then endured a nightmare weekend. All nine were tied fifth or better after 54 holes.

Each Way – Billy Horschel at 28/1

The light in Jon Rahm’s eyes, so dulled in the majors in 2024, was relit on the back nine of the second round before one bad club selection halted the momentum. Nonetheless he was in good spirits afterwards and our pre-event pick still has a good chance. I’d love to be on Lowry but getting on-board now would be chasing a what-if with a price that is plenty short enough.

Instead, I really like the way West Ham fan Billy Horschel was talking after his round. “I’ve been unfortunate enough to be on the bad side of some Open draws like Hoylake in 2014,” he said. “Remember, here in 2016 I shot 4-under the first round, and then I proceeded to shoot 85, but if everyone remembers, the weather was pretty nasty. I got to No. 9, and the weather to that point was the most nastiest weather I’ve ever played in. It was blowing 30mph, raining sideways. It was a brute that day. The record can be a little deceiving. I played Dunhill Links Championship the last few years and now feel more comfortable playing this form of the game.”

Dustin Johnson to beat Brooks Koepka in R3 at 6/5 (draw no bet)

Dustin Johnson, like Horschel, has good memories of Troon. Back in 2016 only Henrik Stenson hit more greens in regulation than DJ yet the putter didn’t behave. This week it has been doing and he also said after his second round: “I’m swinging the irons good, rolling it good. I gave myself a lot of chances. With a good weekend, you never know.” Moreover, despite a poor season in the majors, he also insisted: “I’m swinging well, I’m doing a lot of things really well. I’m just not getting the scores out of it.”

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