IF we needed to boil the 2024 PGA Tour season into a few words ‘The Scheffler and Schauffele Show’ would probably work. It is, after all, a fact that these two golfers have dominated the narrative, the former with his relentless ability to churn out high class results, the latter with his transformation from the nearly man of major championship golf to a two-time winner of the titles that define a career.
That said, relatively speaking it could be said that Scottie Scheffler enters this week in rotten form because his T33rd in last week’s BMW Championship was his second worst performance of the year and just a third failure to crack the top 10 in 19 starts. He hit his straps between early March and early August winning seven times in 12 appearances, a run that included victories in the Players Championship, the Masters and the Paris Olympic Games. If his on-the-course year will be remembered for green and gold triumph, however, no-one will quite forget the drama of his off-the-course arrest ahead of the second round the PGA Championship. It was a bizarre incident that might have become explosive but for the calm (if admittedly rather wary and bemused calm) with which he dealt with it.
Xander Schauffele’s quality was never in doubt ahead of this year. He’d landed 19 top 20s, 11 of them top 10s, in 26 majors before April’s visit to Augusta National and yet the win stubbornly refused to come. When he led both the Players Championship and the Wells Fargo Championship with 18 holes to play and failed to convert victory it was easy to assume that the Californian lacked a killer instinct. Easy, maybe, but wrong. He withstood a charging Bryson DeChambeau at Valhalla to win the PGA Championship and added Open glory before the summer was out.
In-between Schauffele’s major triumphs Bryson DeChambeau and Rory McIlroy went head-to-head down the back nine in the US Open at Pinehurst. It was a duel of sensational quality that briefly descended into farce on the 18th hole before DeChambeau played a world class bunker shot to seal a second victory in his national championship and confirm his return to the elite level of the sport.
Beyond that pair perhaps the only other notable theme, aside from McIlroy’s failure to win an individual event, is the number of first time winners. Of the Americans Nick Dunlap stands out because he won as both an amateur and a professional. Meanwhile, of the Europeans, Frenchman Matthieu Pavon has had a remarkable year winning the Farmers Insurance Open and contending in majors, England’s Aaron Rai added a win to his long-term consistency, the lesser-known Englishman Harry Hall broke through in an opposite field event, and Robert MacIntyre won the Canadian Open with his dad on the bag and shortly afterwards the Scottish Open 12 months McIlroy denied him with a touch of class.
Who will emerge triumphant this week? It’s a tricky question any week of the year but extra-problematic in this event because of the unique starting strokes which rewards seasonal performance. The best way to view it is that we’re not waiting for go in-play, we’re essentially in-play from the get-go. Here’s the state of play:
-10 Scottie Scheffler
-8 Xander Schauffele
-7 Hideki Matsuyama
-6 Keegan Bradley
-5 Ludvig Åberg
-4 Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, Wyndham Clark, Sam Burns, Patrick Cantlay
-3 Sungjae Im, Sahith Theegala, Shane Lowry, Adam Scott, Tony Finau
-2 Byeong Hun An, Viktor Hovland, Russell Henley, Akshay Bhatia, Robert MacIntyre
-1 Billy Horschel, Tommy Fleetwood, Sepp Straka, Matthieu Pavon, Taylor Pendrith
E Chris Kirk, Tom Hoge, Aaron Rai, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Justin Thomas
Each Way Without Starting Strokes – Billy Horschel
There’s no two ways about it: this event has become a messy affair from a betting point of view and taking either of the top two at very short odds from the start doesn’t appeal. So let’s look at the scoring without those pesky starting strokes.
Billy Horschel carded a second round 74 last week but he was otherwise more or less on trend with his recent form which has been excellent. He was second at the Open, seventh in the Wyndham Championship and T10th in the St Jude Championship. He was also a winner of the Corales Puntacana Championship earlier in the year. This tournament is a cut above that one in quality but this is a golfer who really likes the course. He was seventh on debut in 2013, winner in 2014, second in 2018 and seventh in 2021. While the leaders can scrap it out for the big prize, Horschel can ride the form wave on a favourite track.
First Round Leader Without Starting Strokes Each Way – Chris Kirk
It feels a little incredible that this is just Chris Kirk’s second visit to East Lake, not least because he took a liking to it back in 2014. He carded a first round 66 to tie the 18-hole lead and ended the week fourth. Two starts ago, in similar conditions to this week, he thrashed a 64 for the solo advantage at the end of round one and he’s capable of backing that up. He’s claimed eight PGA Tour first round leads and all but one were on Bermuda grass greens (or the similar Paspalum) which he will face this Thursday.
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