IF contrast is your thing then the differences between the first major of the year, last month’s Masters, and the second, this week’s PGA Championship, are little short of delicious.
At Augusta National, the fans are called patrons and are instructed to act as such. They cannot use mobile phones, they mustn’t run, they applaud politely and they can’t drink alcohol on Sunday until the final church service in the area is completed. At Oak Hill, the fans are New Yorkers and behave as such. They engage with the modern world, they’ll run if they want to, they hoop and holler at whatever volume they choose; truly a vociferous and rambunctious crowd that test the concentration of all they face.
And then there is the course. Augusta has no rough to speak of (realistically), while Oak Hill has plenty (juicy grass like a lawn that hasn’t been cut all spring because it’s been too wet).
Some things change, others stay the same, however. Because while the test this week might be somewhat different to last month the most likely winners remain the same. Jon Rahm, this year’s Masters winner, and Scottie Scheffler, who placed the green jacket around the Spaniard’s shoulders, head the betting, followed by a wounded Rory McIlroy. The latter has only played once since his missed cut at Augusta, when somewhat flat in the Wells Fargo Championship, but Rahm and Scheffler are absolutely worthy of their position and quite clearly the hottest players in the game right now.
What will continue to intrigue this week is the performance of LIV golfers. Three of their number finished in the top six at the Masters and while Phil Mickelson and Patrick Reed did so courtesy of fast finishes, Brooks Koepka spent most of the week top of the leaderboard. All three will be fancying their chances this week and so, too, Dustin Johnson and Cameron Smith who both competed in a play-off last week which DJ won.
Scottie Scheffler
We want one from the top of the market onside and, with McIlroy’s poor form and continuing difficulties with major tests counting him out, that leaves Rahm and Scheffler. There’s absolutely no denying that the decision is knife-edge: they’re both in wonderful form, they drive the ball well, they hit lots of greens in regulation, they have strong short games, putt bravely and, in their contrasting ways, are not cowed by the prospect of winning.
There’s very little to separate the pair in long game, but around the greens Rahm might need his best whereas Scheffler’s baseline is higher. I’m also tempted by the fact that six majors have been hosted by Oak Hill and winners (with the exception of one, Shaun Micheel) and runners-up there have tended to also have excellent records at Colonial. That track is shorter than Oak Hill and also tends to have doglegs rather than straight holes, but something has clicked. Rahm has finished second and fifth at Colonial, but he’s also missed two cuts. Scheffler really should have won at Colonial last year before Sam Burns defeated him in extra holes. To repeat: knife-edge stuff, but Scheffler – born in New Jersey – squeaks it.
Russell Henley
If we follow a few trends the long list becomes short very quickly. Major winners over the last five years have consistently contended in one of the three majors ahead of their win. And PGA Championship winners tend to have a top 20 finish in their last two starts, have a top four finish for the year, be ranked inside the world’s top 30 and have finished top 20 in the tournament in the past.
Most of the shortlist is made up of names high up in the betting but two are not and we’ll favour Russell Henley over Tommy Fleetwood. At 27th in the world Henley only just makes the cull and would probably be 30th if the rankings of LIV golfers were not degrading at speed.
But he is a winner this season (before Christmas in Mexico), was fourth in the Masters (either side of that effort he also finished top 20 at Sawgrass and Harbour Town) and he also seems to enjoy the work of Donald Ross who originally designed Oak Hill. Henley has finished T12th and third at East Lake, while his last four starts on Ross tests have reaped ninth, seventh and fifth at Sedgefield, and T10th at Detroit. There’s no escaping that the latter two layouts are easier than this week will be or that Oak Hill hasn’t had a significant redesign, but other factors remain and it might fit Henley’s eye.
Shane Lowry
This preview could be renamed the Shane Lowry Appreciation Society but he has rewarded our faith in the majors and this price is so tempting. True, he’s not in the best of form but he was T16th at the Masters where he reiterated his love of the major championship challenge – a love that is not fruitless. Last year he finished top 25 in three of them including third at the Masters. In 2021 he was again top 25 in three of them, including fourth in this championship. In 2019 he was eighth in this event and won the Open. In 2018 he was in the top six for most of the week in this tournament. In 2016 he was second at the US Open. And in 2015 he was ninth in the US Open and won the WGC Bridgestone Invitational on a set-up (Firestone) a similar length and par to this week, with similarly shaped holes. He likes the big events and this price is high.
