How we stand
Great news for column followers because the pre-championship 90/1 tip Brian Harman leads by five on 10-under 132 from local hero Tommy Fleetwood. Incredibly there are only five men within seven blows of the leader: Sepp Straka is alone in third, one behind Fleetwood, with Min Woo Lee, Shubhankar Sharma and Jason Day all sharing fourth on 3-under. Why does seven matter so much? Because since 1996 not one winner has been more than seven shots back of the lead heading into the weekend.
But this championship might have more than one or two twists in the tale to come. For one thing Harman has never won a major before and rarely been on the verge of winning against such an elite field. And then there is the weather: rain, and lots of it, is expected throughout Saturday and Sunday with gusts of wind above 20mph also possible.
Let’s take a look at the stats and then the leading contenders.
The numbers
The Open is quite a fluid major in terms of where the eventual winner is sitting at halfway. Since the start of the century there have been 22 championships and 17 of the men who lifted the Claret Jug were within three strokes of the lead at this stage (10 of them leading or sharing the lead) – but that means five were not. Phil Mickelson made up four shots in 2013, Padraig Harrington in 2007 and Francesco Molinari (coincidentally both at Carnoustie) were six back, and David Duval in 2001 and Ernie Els (both Royal Lytham & St Anne’s) were seven adrift. The two Royal Liverpool winners in that period were both leaders at this point and, for what it’s worth, all 11 winners on this week’s course were tied third or better at halfway.
Brian Harman 10-under and 29/20
The 36-year-old is a two-time winner on the PGA Tour and has been tied second in the US Open. He was T26th on his Open debut at Royal Liverpool, is bamboozled that he struggled on the links thereafter because he loves it, but corrected that record with T19th in 2021 and tied sixth last year.
He’s had five shared and co-leads at the halfway stage of PGA Tour events but is yet to convert one of them. Doubters will also recall recent little-known Americans who led or shared the lead at this stage of the Open. Moreover, recollect what they scored in the third round: Brian Watts had a 73 in 1998, Duffy Waldorf in 2002 a 78, Skip Kendall in 2004 a 75 and Steve Marino in 2009 a 78. JB Holmes in 2019 didn’t wilt in the third round but having been sharing the halfway lead he did fall 21 shots back over the weekend.
Tommy Fleetwood 5-under and 19/5
The Englishman’s last two wins have come when he was five shots back at the weekend. Admittedly he was much further down the leaderboard in both but that’s actually a positive. As he said after his second round, he’d have taken playing in the final group out on Saturday if offered it at the start of the week. Harman is a hunter and this weekend he’s going to find out what it’s like to be hunted. Fleetwood will be urged on through every step of the final 36 holes and Harman will feel that weight of support for the Southport man.
Rory McIlroy 1-under and 11/1
McIlroy is yet to fire this week and is nine back but he was also looking on the bright side and, like Fleetwood, it is a good bright side: he’s only four back of second place. He has also won from nine back with two rounds to play: in his first PGA Tour win in 2010 and in 2021’s CJ Cup. He also has the good vibes of his Royal Liverpool win to fall back on.
Sepp Straka 4-under and 18/1
Can he become the eighth man to complete the Honda Classic/Open double in the 21st century? He’s done absolutely nothing on the linksland but he did win the John Deere Classic two weeks ago and guys who finish top two there do have a fine record in the Open (Zach Johnson and Francesco Molinari both went on to lift the Claret Jug). A little bit bigger price and he’d be the pick because he’s also in that Hoylake top three sweet spot.
Min Woo Lee 3-under and 18/1
The Aussie has won on the linksland of 13th Beach in Victoria and also the modern links of Renaissance Club in the Scottish Open. He’s also loving major championship golf in the last couple of years. He finished top 30 in three of 2022’s four majors, was T18th in this year’s PGA Championship and fifth in the US Open.
Matt Cooper’s Tip: Jordan Spieth 2-under, 16/1 each way
The American continues to get involved at the Open. He was one shot outside a play-off in 2015, won in 2017, was the 54-hole leader in 2018, three back at halfway in 2019, in the top three all week in 2021 and eighth last year. The latter is his least-involved Open for a long, long time. True, he’s eight back currently but only three adrift of second. Hoylake winners have had superb linksland pedigree. McIlroy was the exception but his win was the first of four straight top 10s. Spieth has that elite quality. “If it’s going to be a grind, I’m certainly up for the challenge,” he said after his second round. He can pounce if Harman loses his lead and the trends go bananas. If that does happen we also have pre-event selection Viktor Hovland on level-par.
