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Who is going to win Formula 1’s two World Championship titles? That’s the big question as we enter the final 10 races of the season, and it’s no longer an easy one to answer. Max Verstappen has a strong lead in the World Championship for Drivers, 78 points ahead of Lando Norris, but in the teams’ championship Red Bull Racing is only 42 points clear of McLaren.

When we remember that the season started with Max and Red Bull looking totally dominant, winning four of the first five races, the situation has completely changed. Seven drivers from four teams have won races this season and Max’s last win was in Barcelona in June, two months ago, which seems incredible. McLaren has made fantastic progress, both Lando and team mate Oscar Piastri winning races and their car looking competitive everywhere.

Mercedes also made a good step with their car and I think that Lewis Hamilton’s victories in Silverstone and Spa were important for him personally as well as the team. Mercedes’ boss Toto Wolff does not believe they have a car capable of winning consistently but, even if George Russell’s victory in Austria was a little bit lucky, winning three of the four Grands Prix before the summer break means Mercedes has to be a threat to Red Bull and McLaren.

Ferrari looked good for the first eight races, winning two of them including Charles Leclerc’s fantastic win in Monaco back in May. Since then things have looked much more difficult with only two podium finishes, both scored by Charles. Unless there is a big change they will continue to fight for good points and podiums, but realistically Ferrari does not have the pace and consistency needed to challenge at the front.

Of the remaining teams Aston Martin has had the most disappointing season, very different to how things were last year when Fernando Alonso scored seven podiums and was fourth in the World Championship for Drivers. The team with the big step forward has been Haas, Formula 1’s smallest team, seventh in the World Championship and only seven points behind the RB team.

For me one of the biggest factors in this year’s World Championship is the strength and consistency of driver line-ups. While Max has delivered seven wins at Red Bull, Checo Perez has had a difficult season. He is the only driver in the top eight not to win a Grand Prix in 2024. Both he and team need to find a way for him to more closely support Max, opening up a a wider range of race strategies as the team comes under pressure from McLaren.

The McLaren guys are both performing really well and their biggest danger is that they take points off each other which is one of the reasons why the team orders in Hungary became such a talking point. I know that team boss Andrea Stella will remain fair to both drivers, but the team also senses it has a chance to win a title this year and, unless Checo improves, it could be a 2-against-1 battle between McLaren and Red Bull Racing.

Take Note

Zandvoort is a historic track and narrow which makes overtaking difficult, while its location in the sand dunes means the track can be affected by sand. With 50kmh winds forecast for Friday, that will add another challenge for the teams during practice and set-up. Rain showers are forecast every day, and this is another points about Zandvoort – sitting on the North Sea coast the weather can change quite suddenly, potentially giving the race strategists and drivers plenty to deal with.

Mika’s Tip

Max Verstappen has won every Dutch Grand Prix since the race returned to the calendar in 2021 and he will be totally focused on a repeat win after the summer break and two months since his last victory. While Ferrari and Mercedes will push hard, realistically it’s McLaren which is likely to be the biggest threat: the question is whether Max will be fighting Lando or Oscar for the win.

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