THE story of law changes in football is lengthy, but alterations that directly affect goalkeepers are invariably the ones that make a tangible difference to how the game is played. In June 1912 the rule that let custodians handle the ball all the way up to the halfway line was switched to the penalty box limit we all respect to this day, and goals per game in the top (only) two English divisions climbed from 2.75 in 1911-12 to 2.99 in 1912-13, with Arsenal getting relegated to boot, an actual event swathes of people still refuse to accept happened.

80 years later the backpass law was introduced, banning goalkeepers from picking up balls played to them by a team-mate, and the number of goalless draws in England’s top-flight fell from 46 in 1991-92 to 38 in 1992-93. A whole new ball game? Kinda, yeah. 2019-20 has seen another adjustment, with outfield players now able to receive goal kicks within their own area. At first, it looked rakishly outlandish, then it seemed to open up a world of possibilities, but recently we’ve seen errors like the one Arsenal made at Watford in September, a slavish commitment to short goal kicks resulting in a Sokratis error that enabled Tom Cleverley to score.

The graphic below shows where every Premier League goalkeeper has played their goal kicks this season and the variation is joyous. Brighton’s Mat Ryan leads the way with 36 in-box efforts, spread evenly left and right, which is absolutely not the case with Bernd Leno’s total of 31, which have seen several played towards the penalty spot, the highway to the danger zone. Just because you can restart play anywhere in the box, it doesn’t mean you should.

Other ‘keepers of note include Wolves’ Rui Patricio and his rabid commitment to the right flank, to the utter exclusion of the left, Norwich reserve Ralf Fahrmann who has not lived up to his surname, with none of his goal kicks making it past the penalty spot. Meanwhile, supporters attending Watford vs Sheffield United this weekend should be excited about seeing a true English heritage battle between Ben Foster and Dean Henderson. Foster is the only keeper this season to see two of his goal kicks reach the opposition’s penalty box, while Henderson has proven the most old fashioned glovesman in the league, with all but two of his goal kicks being played to the opposition half and none in his own box. If your centre-halves are busy overlapping, you might as well go long.

In terms of uptake, the Premier League sits alongside Serie A and the Bundesliga in its enthusiasm for the new approach, with La Liga ‘keepers particularly reluctant to join the party. Special mention should go to Gianluigi Buffon who has played nine of his 10 goal kicks inside his own penalty area, possibly due to ferocious respect of the new rule or perhaps because he is nearly 42, and at that age the halfway line can seem a long way away.

So that’s what Premier League goalkeepers are doing, but what difference is it making? The thread below throws up some interesting findings, with the pick of them being that team possession starting with an inside-box goal kick have seen the opposition score 3% of the time, compared with 1% when the goal kick is played outside the box. Essentially, in a haunting mirror of the popular North American NFL version of football, potentially ceding possession closer to your own goal line increases your chances of being hurt. Other than stopping shots from Gini Wijnaldum, maybe Dean Henderson knows what he’s doing. 

Overall it seems that by taking an inbox GK…

– More likely to concede
– Opp starts with ball further upfield
– Marginally less likely to retain possession beyond this sequence
– BUT you are more likely to get a shot off (but risky?)

— Tom (@Worville) October 3, 2019