REMEMBER the 2000s? A decade of turmoil for some but for the leading contenders in the Premier League it was a time of steadiness.
The Big Four: Manchester United, Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool all reached Champions League finals in the 2000s, and, other than Liverpool, won the Premier League on multiple occasions. A nation sat enthralled as they regularly played out 0-0 draws on Grand Slam Sundays. Some goals would have been nice, but these otherworldly behemoths had more important matters on their minds.
Back to the present day and things have changed. Yes, Liverpool are still attempting to win the Premier League but the three other teams are in reduced circumstances. The days of Ferguson and Wenger have passed and the three current managers at Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester United have a combined 78 Premier League games at those clubs between them.
In 2004 and 2005 Liverpool and Everton came fourth with a points total of 60 and 61 respectively. Arsenal, Tottenham and Chelsea have all cruised that total already and this season looks certain to be the first time in English top-flight history that the fourth placed team will end with 75+ points for three successive seasons. To win the Premier League now you need to be virtually flawless. The sides battling for third and fourth this season certainly have flaws but whose will stop them from achieving the fiscal dream of Champions League qualification?
There is another enthralling race going on in the Premier League than the road to title and it starts tonight.
Comment below and predict who will finish in the top four, for me it will be Arsenal and Manchester United #WOLMUN pic.twitter.com/xSDDlHCvUL
— SJ (@SweeperWriter) April 2, 2019
Arsenal
Why They’ll Do It
No more games against the Big Six, which is nice. Arsenal do have a relatively unimpressive away record this season but they have conceded 27 goals (on an xG conceded figure of 21) which suggests that they’ve been at least a bit unfortunate.
Lacazette has scored and/or assisted a goal in each of Arsenal’s last seven home games, the first time any Arsenal player has done this since Mesut Ozil in 2015. And talking of Ozil, he got man of the match against Newcastle in the club’s most recent game. The club’s shot conversion rate of 23% is the highest Opta have ever recorded by a Premier League team in a single season.
Why They Won’t
Also talking of Ozil, he has only assisted two goals in his last 20 Premier League appearances. That Arsenal conversion rate is so unrealistic it’s got laser cannons. Lacazette has scored 20 of his 27 Premier League goals at the Emirates so needs to start doing it away from home.
Arsenal are the only Premier League team yet to keep a clean sheet on the road this season, something even generosity-icons Fulham have managed. Europa League progression could prove a distraction, but also a solution if they do end up outside the top four.
A £10 bet on Arsenal to finish in the top four returns £14.40
Tottenham
Why They’ll Do It
Finally moving to their gleaming new home is a relief for a team who only won three of their last six Premier League games at Wembley. Harry Kane looked aghast not to score in the opening game and is hunting down the Golden Boot like he did in 2016 and 2017 when the floodgates were opened.
Four of Spurs’ last six games are at (actual) home, the result of front loading their away games this season when it still seemed like the new stadium would be ready in the autumn.
Why They Won’t
Tottenham have lost only four games fewer than relegation battlers Southampton. A study of the underlying numbers shows that they have the sixth highest Expected Goals total this season and the sixth best Expected Goals conceded numbers. Feed that through a high powered top-secret computer system and it comes out with the number 6. As in sixth.
A £10 bet on Tottenham to finish in the top four returns £13.60
Wins for Chelsea and Tottenham
The race for the top four is pic.twitter.com/s9iRaJWsuK
— Eurosport UK (@Eurosport_UK) April 3, 2019
Chelsea
Why They’ll Do It
The midweek win against Brighton finally saw Maurizio Sarri unleash Callum Hudson-Odoi from the very start of a Premier League game and he duly provided an assist for Olivier Giroud’s opening goal, as well as putting in six open play crosses, just the sort of thing Chelsea have been missing for much of the season. Even without the England youngster Chelsea lead the league in dribbles and fouls won; they take the game to their opponents, even if they don’t always finish it off.
Why They Won’t
Two goals in 23 appearances for Olivier Giroud, three in eight for Gonzalo Higuain and five in 16 for Alvaro Morata before he departed. Chelsea’s search for a striker who scores regularly has been so intense they almost re-signed Mark Stein in January. A trip to Anfield at the start of April and to Old Trafford at the end will define Chelsea’s season. Five defeats in their last seven away games and three wins in their last 20 visits to Big Six teams suggests it could be defined quite badly.
A £10 bet on Chelsea to finish in the top four returns £24
Manchester United
Why They’ll Do It
This is the first time since 1995-96 that four Manchester United players have scored 10+ goals in a Premier League season. Despite recent defeats, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s win percentage is still over 70% and he’ll relish inspiring his players for the Manchester derby in a few weeks.
Five wins and a draw will take United to 77 points, two more than they collected in Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s first campaign as a United player. In 1997 that was enough for the league title; in 2019 it might scrape them third place.
Why They Won’t
I suppose United could knock Barcelona out of the Champions League but realistically that’s not going to happen. How the players react to a full Messi alien workover remains to be seen. Solskjaer’s life as permanent manager of the club has begun a lot more functionally than during the honeymoon of the year and United’s defence continues to serve up gilt-edged chances to the opposition (their xG conceded of 43.4 is mid-table, worse than Wolves, Leicester, Palace and Everton).
Jose Mourinho said that United “needed a miracle” to reach the top four, but that miracle could be facing Huddersfield and Cardiff in their final two games.
A £10 bet on Man Utd to finish in the top four returns £40
