GERMANY are without question one of the most difficult international teams to make sense of right now and it is confounding to write that down in all sincerity.
For all our lives Die Mannschaft have managed to find a way, navigating a path to the semi-finals or beyond in major competitions – sometimes seemingly through sheer force of will alone – and though of course they have historically boasted some of the finest sides to grace the biggest stages we also intuitively know that in fallow periods they should never, ever be ruled out. This is a truth as ingrained in us as looking left and right before crossing roads. This is a truth born of empirical certainty.
So, it came as a hefty shock to see Joachim Low’s team apathetically depart the 2018 World Cup, finishing bottom of their group, and the transitional period that followed has not gone according to plan, as evidenced by a 6-0 trouncing at the hands of Spain and a startling reverse to North Macedonia. It has been a stuttering recovery that has resulted in Mats Hummels and Thomas Muller being brought back into the fold, the two highest profile scapegoats from their capitulation in Russia.
Thomas Müller: "In Germany, we don't believe in superstars. We are taught from an early age to play as a team, not to shine alone. That's why you won't see many German players winning a Ballon d'Or, but that's also why you can see 4 stars on our jersey." pic.twitter.com/kZ30qwibMV
— EUROs Tweet (@Football__Tweet) June 9, 2021
Yet for all of Germany’s uncharacteristic frailties at the back and consistent inconsistency they still arguably possess the second-best midfield at the Euros, though Leon Goretzka is set to miss this Tuesday’s opener against France. This is hardly ideal given that France have the best midfield, so long as Kante and Pogba shine. Up front too though, the Germans have a lot to be encouraged by. In their last 20 fixtures they have scored 2.7 goals per game whereas France in that period have scored 2.3.
The flipside to this is that France have only conceded 12 times in the past two years. Germany meanwhile have shipped in 25.
If that spells bad news for the Germans, it is fortunate for us watching because it is fair to expect goals from this blockbuster clash that properly gets Group F up and running two hours after Portugal have routinely beaten Hungary. Combined, going right back to 2019, France and Germany have scored 2+ goals in 42.5% of their fixtures and with Gnabry, Griezmann, Mbappe and Muller on the pitch an incident-free stalemate is hard to imagine.
Regarding goal-scorers however, it is probably logical to look past this fearsome quartet to find the most attractive odds. Ilkay Gundogan has not only upped his prolificacy for Manchester City of late but also for his country, as seven in his last 14 appearances demonstrate. Prior to this, the midfielder scored three in 31. He is 17/4 to score anytime in the Allianz Arena tomorrow evening.
As for who gets the assist it is natural to think of Thomas Muller, what with the Bayern Munich ace being the creator-in-chief across Europe’s top five leagues in 2020/21. Here he is on home turf too.
The astonishing stats of Kai Havertz in a German shirt though should not be ignored. Since establishing himself in the international set-up a couple of years back the 22-year-old has carved out an assist every 77 minutes and he is 11/2 to continue that impressive form against the tournament favourites.
If that’s Germany’s goal-scorer and creator anticipated that only leaves us with the when and don’t be surprised if the four-times Euro champions get their noses in front early. Of their 53-goal haul since 2019, just shy of a quarter of them have been converted inside 20 minutes.
All of which will no doubt trouble France, considered by many to be the most complete package of this summer’s 24 participants, but perhaps it will not overly faze them. On the four occasions Didier Deschamps’ men have conceded first in recent times they have gone on to win three of them and if a similar comeback occurs at the expense of the Germans it is highly likely that Antoine Griezmann will be involved. The Player of the Tournament in 2016 has scored eight and made nine assists in his last 20 games for Les Bleus and he is 13/4 to give an assist again.
Antoine Griezmann's goal for France yesterday #FRA pic.twitter.com/Wpnucm0tCj
— Betika Nigeria (@BetikaNigeria) June 9, 2021
Lastly, in terms of the game’s narrative, it is hardly inconceivable that France get a late winner. If Germany’s reputation for efficiently progressing through competitions has become diminished lately so too has their hard-earned association with seeing out games. Of the last 18 goals they have conceded 39% of them have arrived beyond the 75th minute.
France are 12/1 in the Match Events market to win after being a goal behind.
Elsewhere, all the best bets concern the reigning world champions. Since 2019 they have averaged 7.25 corners per game compared to Germany’s 5.5 yet they are a very reasonable 27/25 to win more than their Teutonic counterparts.
Then there’s the intriguing little development from this week’s media to factor in. Antonio Rudiger is 9/1 to get booked and for his team to lose and having seen yellow once every eight games for his country that’s par for the course. But consider his quote from the weekend that has been widely circulated on how Germany should ideally approach their opening commitment: ‘We have to be a little dirty, not always be nice or try to play nice football.’
The Chelsea defender is aware that referees can read, right?
