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MUNTOT

IT’S admittedly a small sample size but if last weekend tells us anything it’s that the first half will be frenetic and full of quality at Old Trafford this Sunday afternoon.

Tottenham went behind after just 25 seconds against Brentford, and this after losing two games on the bounce in September, so it’s to their enormous credit that Ange Postecoglou’s men immediately responded in a positive manner. Just eight minutes later they were level and half an hour in they were ahead, and the adventure they mustered to turn things around – adventure that led to a chaotic intensity and a high volume of chances being created – very much brought to mind their sparkling showings at the start of last term.

For Spurs fans that will have been as encouraging as the eventual result.

In that opening 45, James Maddison was magnificent, thriving in a deeper role that had him stationed alongside Rodrigo Bentancur. Not for him the easy option of playing the ‘quarterback’ role, pinging cross-field passes when in space.

Instead, he constantly endeavoured to drive forward; to pin the Bees back and conjure up opportunities.

Brennan Johnson meanwhile bagged his second in two games after converting in the League Cup midweek and what intrigues about this is that the Marmite winger does tend to score in streaks.

There was a purple patch last term between January and March. A purple patch the season before for Nottingham Forest. In between and elsewhere, he is susceptible to droughts.

And let’s not under-value the importance of Dominic Solanke getting off the mark. The 27-year-old has made 137 Premier League appearances but he’s still a record buy and that brings a lot of pressure on any forward to find the back of the net, ideally quickly.

There is no doubting his ability but crucially Solanke travels north on Sunday confident and charged.

Back Brennan Johnson to score or assist at 33/20

It was therefore a much-needed first half full of pluses for Spurs and though they were by no means poor in the second period, they allowed Brentford back into the contest and took their foot off the accelerator.

They went from being blisteringly good to merely good.

Which was pretty much the same arc taken by Manchester United at Selhurst Park. “In the first half, we ate them alive,” Erik Ten Hag said post-match and it’s true that the Reds tore into Palace from the get-go, carving out numerous openings. The woodwork was struck twice. Dean Henderson played a blinder in nets. From minute one to half-time, United constructed five big chances with Bruno Fernandes particularly impressive.

Yet beyond the break, the visitors went passive. Their intensity and ambition dipped and near the end, the Eagles could easily have snatched an undeserved winner.

So does all this suggest a ferocious start awaits us at the weekend before the contest gradually ebbs away? It does, and furthermore recent history is also persuasive in this regard. In the last six meetings at Old Trafford between these pair seven goals have been converted inside the opening 20 minutes.

Back over 1.5 goals in the first half at 10/11

The caveat of course to the link above, where the doubt resides, is in United’s prolonged struggle to punish teams when on top. Just five goals from 93 attempts to date has them among the relegation contenders in the chance conversion rate chart while last season they accrued their lowest goal tally in the league for seven seasons.

The return of Rasmus Hojlund could improve this situation, ‘could’ being the operative word given that the Dane shown twice-over in 2023/24 that he typically needs a handful of games to get up to speed after injury.

Then there’s Marcus Rashford, a surprise omission in South London, who seems to be feeling his way back into some semblance of form. Boasting four goal involvements in seven outings so far, the forward has scored six in his last 10 starts against Spurs.

Still, it’s pertinent that four of United’s five best performers statistically this term are defenders, the other being Fernandes. It means that tipping an individual to catch fire in the attacking third here amounts to guesswork.

We’re on far safer ground when it comes to discipline, with Kobbie Mainoo committing more fouls so far than anyone else expected to feature this Sunday. Bentancur meanwhile has picked up three cautions already and was booked in this exact fixture last season.

Take a punt on over 1.5 fouls by Mainoo and Bentancur to be carded at 7/1

As for the overall result at Old Trafford it’s worth noting that United are yet to beat any of the traditional ‘big six’ in 2024 but backing Spurs still feels dicey, especially at 37/20.

Where value can be found is in Matthijs De Ligt posting over 0.5 shots on target. The defender has racked up five to this point, at a rate of one every 53 minutes.

Corners too are a potential goldmine particularly when it concerns Spurs, what with Postecoglou’s side winning a league-high of 53 of them already, a ludicrous number.

United’s corner-count of 34 is a respectable figure, also.

Back De Ligt to have over 0.5 shots on target and over 11.5 total corners at 9/2


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