DERBY games in September don’t tend to have many narratives attached. There is usually a favourite and an underdog, of course, and the latter may even have a manager already in trouble just a handful of matches in. Typically though, the main concern is that ultimate of cliches, that of bragging rights being secured.
Derbies in September, therefore, are relatively pure in essence, certainly in comparison to their sequel, sometime after the new year. They are free from all the must-win hysteria and big-picture think pieces that have come to dominate the modern era.
That is absolutely not the case this time out, at the Etihad this Sunday, late afternoon. There, the two kings of Manchester clash for the 197th time, and it’s an encounter laden with narrative, overflowing with it.
Consequences of defeat engulf our thoughts leading into the contest, as too do the considerable benefits of victory.
For City, a third consecutive loss would likely leave them nine points adrift of Liverpool, with Arsenal away next up. They are in danger of giving themselves a mountain to climb before the title race has begun in earnest.
Moreover, the common consensus that accompanied their thorough dismantling of Wolves on the opening day feels premature and inaccurate now. Then, it was believed the Blues were back to their imperious best after a season of surprising turmoil, a winning machine once again.
Only then came defeats to Spurs and Brighton, Pep Guardiola’s men looking worryingly disjointed in the first before being sucker-punched a week later.
If United get the better of them this weekend, it will be framed thus: that, for all of their squad overhaul and summer reset, City’s empire is crumbling. That last season was not a one-off but the norm now.
Granted, that would be one heck of a dramatic take from a mere 90 minutes of football, but such is the power of narratives. And it is one City must avoid at all costs.
Manchester United’s weekend too is one of reckoning, with infinitely more at stake than points and pride.
Going into their vital, if problematic, victory over Burnley, and shamed from exiting the League Cup at Grimsby, Ruben Amorim essentially suggested we put all crisis talk on hold for the moment and gauge what happens after the international break. Well, here we are, with a noisy neighbour presently quieted by doubt.
What have the Reds got?
What they haven’t got is Matheus Cunha, their £62.5m summer buyout for the foreseeable future with a hamstring injury while Mason Mount is also a big loss, the England international starting this campaign well.
Their absences make a full debut for Benjamin Sesko a near certainty, and the Slovenian will be aided up front by Bryan Mbeumo, with Bruno Fernandes scheming from deep. The former has injected United’s frontline with energy since joining from Brentford, taking on a shot every 24 minutes in the league and finally scoring from one of them.
As for Fernandes, for both good and bad reasons, he usually plays a prominent role in this fixture, so it’s pertinent that he has carved out the most chances of any top-flight player at this early juncture, 12 of them, eight from open play.
It’s additionally notable that United have committed to more efforts on goal than any other side. A lot more than anyone else, as it goes. A sizable 58.
But focusing on the visitor’s attack is like admiring a polished sports car that contains a fire-damaged engine.
Fundamental issues remain in midfield while their three-man rearguard is still structurally unsound, too often dragged out of position at critical moments. The signing of Senne Lammens in nets may help improve matters back there but, due to several high-profile gaffes between the sticks, the United goalkeeping jersey has now become an awfully heavy one to wear. And this is an awfully big game.
Staying with number ones, there is a possibility of City also debuting a new keeper in the form of Champions League-winning, Euro-winning Gianluigi Donnarumma, but while his distribution will no doubt be placed under some scrutiny – succeeding the master at it, Ederson – the real interest from a betting perspective can be found at the other end of the pitch.
On Tuesday evening Erling Haaland scored five times for Norway vs Moldova, making it 48 goals in 45 appearances for his country. For his club he has bagged three in three in 2025/26 and boasts an impressive nine goal involvements in eight prior Manchester derbies.
With Marmoush and Cherki both out, and Foden and Savinho doubtful, the likelihood is that the Striking Viking will be flanked on Sunday by Doku and Bobb, both tasked with servicing his insatiable hunger for a chance, yet another goal.
Haaland evokes that famous line from Mike Tyson about everyone having a plan until they are punched in the mouth. We can discuss narratives to our heart’s content, but then the freakishly prolific forward scores again and makes all must-win hysteria and big-picture think pieces largely irrelevant.
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